ShawniganLake Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 18 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: Indeed, although something tells me that Oregon posters might for some reason disagree with that sentiment. They get a nice backdoor blast through the gorge with some flurries. That initial cold Shot isn’t looking great for Fraser outflow. Too much easterly component. And then we get a big snowstorm. Seems like a compromise at least. I’m sure the euro will be different anyways. 3 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 Seems like more ensemble improvement. 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 15 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: Looks great Seattle north again. We have seen this story before A few days ago, the Willamette Valley was being modelled to get the goods and MBY was getting left high and dry. I expect more flip-flopping, as usual. The main takeaway is that snow seems to be getting modelled at least somewhere in the lowlands each run. 4 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 Yeah, January has sucked everywhere. The real cold has been locked up in Asia since Christmas. 3 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 in it to win it. it's on 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 I have a feeling the long range (240 hours+ is still in flux and we could see some explosive improvement there in the next few days. 1 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Seems like more ensemble improvement. GEFS bottoms out at -9c for Vancouver. Definitely trending cooler. 500mb pattern looks to have an improved ridge over Alaska next week and possibly a wetter pattern later next week 4 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 One other piece that is nagging at me is we are probably going to see a regionally wet pattern develop sometime in the next 3-4 weeks. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 Coast to coast 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 12z GEFS Day 10+ HUGE improvement with persistent cold air in the Gorge. It is becoming snowy too. 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 12z ECMWF Day 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 13 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: A few days ago, the Willamette Valley was being modelled to get the goods and MBY was getting left high and dry. I expect more flip-flopping, as usual. The main takeaway is that snow seems to be getting modelled at least somewhere in the lowlands each run. Oh this is far from set ik Once the models forecast 10in+ for Mossman, it normally happens lol 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 2 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said: Coast to coast Wild stuff. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: One other piece that is nagging at me is we are probably going to see a regionally wet pattern develop sometime in the next 3-4 weeks. Bold call during a PNW winter 1 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnarkyGoblin Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: One other piece that is nagging at me is we are probably going to see a regionally wet pattern develop sometime in the next 3-4 weeks. always looking onto the next thing. it's like a drug. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 12z GEFS Surface temps PDX. That's more like it! 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 Just now, RentonHill said: Bold call during a PNW winter Well we haven't had much of it this winter. The last jet extension was aimed at CA, and we just picked up the scraps. We are going to likely see a 1-2 week period where the PNW is in the bullseye at some point. There is a higher than average likelihood we pay for the overall dryness later on in spring too. 3 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 12z Euro Day 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 1 minute ago, SnarkyGoblin said: always looking onto the next thing. it's like a drug. Ur luv is my drug. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PuyallupChris Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 38 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: Looks great Seattle north again. We have seen this story before Nooooooo. Barf. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 21 minutes ago, Phil said: Yeah, January has sucked everywhere. The real cold has been locked up in Asia since Christmas. The Sierra Nevada is nowhere? 2 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 Ukmet has a nice backdoor blast. 850s -15C into the eastern end of the Gorge. 6 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 Day 3 ECMWF, GEM, GFS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 Just now, ShawniganLake said: Ukmet has a nice backdoor blast. 850s -15C into the eastern end of the Gorge. Yeah looks like a major blast. 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 Day 4 ECMWF, GEM, GFS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 The ridging seems better on the long range GEFS. Just a thought. 4 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said: The ridging seems better on the long range GEFS. Just a thought. Compared to previous runs vastly so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 the rare 'cold continent' pattern those are usually fun Anal logs??? 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 15 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Well we haven't had much of it this winter. The last jet extension was aimed at CA, and we just picked up the scraps. We are going to likely see a 1-2 week period where the PNW is in the bullseye at some point. There is a higher than average likelihood we pay for the overall dryness later on in spring too. It would be nice if it came with some average to slightly below average snow levels. I was skiing yesterday up at Baker and the low elevation snowpack is still pretty pitiful. 8 Quote Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 I think I remember some Met on twitter mentioned the 'cold continent' thing was in play this year in late winter. Can't remember who 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 Day 5 ECMWF, GEM, GFS 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 26 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: That would be the rare (and coveted) regionwide snow event if it verifies. 4 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 3 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said: I think I remember some Met on twitter mentioned the 'cold continent' thing was in play this year in late winter. Can't remember who Ryan Maue? 2 1 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said: Ryan Maue? lol, doubtful. I'm blocked from his tweets 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 Mostly cloudy with a low of 36 here. Completely sunny now and 41. 1 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 Yeah, just a much better GEFS run overall. 4 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said: Yeah, just a much better GEFS run overall. What are you thinking this June will be like Andrew? 1 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 Just now, Cascadia_Wx said: What are you thinking this June will be like Andrew? mild and showery > roast balls in July 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 SLE and EUG both hit freezing this morning. Still very socked in down here in Albany. Looks like Burns hit 1 this morning. Their winning streak continues. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 23, 2023 Report Share Posted January 23, 2023 Day 6 ECMWF, GEM, GFS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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