ShawniganLake Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 Raining here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 1 hour ago, Slushy Inch said: It's really not much yet. Could trend good. That pattern is much too +NAO dominant. SW Canada is left with table scraps at best. 3 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 1 hour ago, snow_wizard said: And speaking of strange. There are people just taking it for granted the Nina is done and will transition into a Nino. Absolutely no clear sign of that happening as of now. Who is doing that? The tropical circulation is as La Niña heavy as it’s been since last spring (and +QBO will try to keep it this way). Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 49 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Today I guess I learned an SSW isn't necessarily an SSW. Who would have thunk it? A wave-1 type stratospheric warming is happening. That doesn’t make it a SSW. The PV is (as of now) modeled to remain somewhat close to the pole and retain its structural integrity. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 That’s a big league GOA block. You’d think it would do the trick, but unfortunately there is zero help downstream in NE-Canada. Without downstream blocking to prevent the airmass from sliding east, it just congeals with the TPV near Baffin Island, and (as usual) gets stuck up there. Then the stratospheric PV (which is displaced towards Greenland thanks to the ongoing wave-1 response) links up/vertically stacks with the Baffin TPV, triggering a full blown +NAO event that dominates the pattern. 4 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 This is how patterns with arctic potential for the PNW get ruined at least 70% of the time in the post-1998 climate regime. Seen it happen numerous times each winter since 2013. Always the same problem. 4 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2022 Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 gonna vomit if this is really how the rest of winter is going to go Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfan2012 Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 22 minutes ago, Phil said: Who is doing that? The tropical circulation is as La Niña heavy as it’s been since last spring (and +QBO will try to keep it this way). Larry Cosgrove is doing that still going with El nino in the summer.He was ending La nina this winter those like Larry but he clearly been off this winter after he had one of the best forecasting calls in the summer and hurricane season. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 12 minutes ago, Phil said: That’s a big league GOA block. You’d think it would do the trick, but unfortunately there is zero help downstream in NE-Canada. Without downstream blocking to prevent the airmass from sliding east, it just congeals with the TPV near Baffin Island, and (as usual) gets stuck up there. Then the stratospheric PV (which is displaced towards Greenland thanks to the ongoing wave-1 response) links up/vertically stacks with the Baffin TPV, triggering a full blown +NAO event that dominates the pattern. AKA… the pattern goes to sh*t fast. 2 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfan2012 Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 1 hour ago, snow_wizard said: And speaking of strange. There are people just taking it for granted the Nina is done and will transition into a Nino. Absolutely no clear sign of that happening as of now. Larry Cosgrove has been ending La nina since the summer those does admints it been slower. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 27 years ago right now rain was changing to SNOW. 1 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 Decent end to the EPS... pretty strong signal for 15 days out. 4 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 Just now, weatherfan2012 said: Larry Cosgrove is doing that still going with El nino in the summer.He was ending La nina this winter those like Larry but he clearly been off this winter after he had one of the best forecasting calls in the summer and hurricane season. We all make mistakes. At least a couple of my screwups are famous on here and will never leave me. But alas, I think he is jumping the gun. There’s currently nothing to indicate an El Niño will develop in 2023. Now, the WPAC is certainly locked and loaded. Thermocline is very suppressed out there. If a strong MJO wave were to cross the dateline sometime in F/M/A, then suddenly an El Niño becomes more likely, if not probable. But present boundary conditions are working against that. The tropical circulation is thoroughly coupled to the La Niña event, and the +QBO/stable tropics are keeping a lid on the MJO. 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfan2012 Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 23 minutes ago, Phil said: We all make mistakes. At least a couple of my screwups are famous on here and will never leave me. But alas, I think he is jumping the gun. There’s currently nothing to indicate an El Niño will develop in 2023. Now, the WPAC is certainly locked and loaded. Thermocline is very suppressed out there. If a strong MJO wave were to cross the dateline sometime in F/M/A, then suddenly an El Niño becomes more likely, if not probable. But present boundary conditions are working against that. The tropical circulation is thoroughly coupled to the La Niña event, and the +QBO/stable tropics are keeping a lid on the MJO. Agreed I think the truth is no matter how many ids one has mother nature will still kick you in the but at times and this winter has kicked many.Also it human nature to not like to be wrong and alot of times we can be stubborn in admitting that we were wrong lol.I also think there is still many things in the climate system that we don't really know and it those unknowns alot of times that screws up forecasted ideas.which will then leave us saying yep back to the drawing board again ☺.I think with LC he been going by models which has clearly been rushing things with the enso and he adminted the delays of the models has frustrated him.I think your idea Phil is what makes the most sense a slower trainstion. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 So as I see it, either we: 1) pull off an early/dynamic final warming in March/early April, igniting the MJO which triggers a WWB and DOKW as it crosses the IPWP, bringing about a rapid transition into El Niño. 2) We get the vanilla outcome..static final warming, PV slowly rots away. No substantial MJO response, and ENSO gradually goes dormant (neutral) in 2023. With easterly shear descending (transition to -QBO) later in 2023, the move to El Niño occurs in 2024, beginning the next intradecadal extension of the IPWP, which will produce more El Niño and ENSO neutral events through the mid/late 2020s. Similar to the 1991/92-1997/98, 2001/02-2006/07, and 2012/13 -2019/20 regimes. 4 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RayRay Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 womp womp our snowy Seattle January/February is ruined. so sad. so sad. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umadbro Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 But I was told that it was coming 4 1 1 Quote https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f my personal weather station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 6 hours ago, Phil said: That’s a big league GOA block. You’d think it would do the trick, but unfortunately there is zero help downstream in NE-Canada. Without downstream blocking to prevent the airmass from sliding east, it just congeals with the TPV near Baffin Island, and (as usual) gets stuck up there. Then the stratospheric PV (which is displaced towards Greenland thanks to the ongoing wave-1 response) links up/vertically stacks with the Baffin TPV, triggering a full blown +NAO event that dominates the pattern. It's still going to deliver some very cold air to the lower 48, just not sustained. 3 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 Still no measurable snow in NYC this winter 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 56 minutes ago, Front Ranger said: It's still going to deliver some very cold air to the lower 48, just not sustained. Yeah -30F here is still a very cold airmass. Definitely nothing to sneeze at. I’ll have to go back and look but two -30 or greater air masses in one season is quite rare for even here. 3 1 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westcoastexpat Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 9 hours ago, snow_wizard said: And speaking of strange. There are people just taking it for granted the Nina is done and will transition into a Nino. Absolutely no clear sign of that happening as of now. I mean there are signs.. CPC probabilistic guidance at over 50% odds of El Nino by October, much higher odds than those for a neutral year. And following three Ninas, a Nino soon should be pretty much guaranteed within the next two winters. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 11 minutes ago, westcoastexpat said: I mean there are signs.. CPC probabilistic guidance at over 50% odds of El Nino by October, much higher odds than those for a neutral year. And following three Ninas, a Nino soon should be pretty much guaranteed within the next two winters. I could care less about enso. In the end 2019 was a Nino and great. 20-21 sucked and this one might if it doesn’t get its act together. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 16 minutes ago, westcoastexpat said: I mean there are signs.. CPC probabilistic guidance at over 50% odds of El Nino by October, much higher odds than those for a neutral year. And following three Ninas, a Nino soon should be pretty much guaranteed within the next two winters. Jim uses his own forecasting models…it’s predicting a 5 dip nina it looks like. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 52 minutes ago, Doinko said: Still no measurable snow in NYC this winter Bring on the climate alarmists articles. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 Another beautiful morning! 40 degrees. .55” so far on the day, 4.69” for the month. 2 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 4 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said: Bring on the climate alarmists articles. Thank you for your contributions 4 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 Always a fun time with the GFS... it barely shows it going below freezing at all with the main cold air event but then assumes it will still be cold enough for lowland snow up north when the next system arrives. 1 1 2 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 23 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: I could care less about enso. In the end 2019 was a Nino and great. 20-21 sucked and this one might if it doesn’t get its act together. 06/07 was a weak Nino if I remember correctly? Also 2018/19 as well? I don’t follow that enough to remember but if so…I am good with taking my chances with a weak Nino. Let’s go neutral or weak Nino! 1 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 I would take this view over snow views any day…It’s amazing!! Seriously though…This screams January. Even when I was a kid (80’s) I remember so many dull January’s like this and it was so depressing. The only things that got me through was February was usually better in the snow department and I would start getting my fishing gear ready (very early) for opening day in the spring. I would also watch Hank Parker and Bill Dance every Sunday morning…I was such a fishing nut. Need to get back into that as I think the kids would have a blast as well. 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 12Z GEM also shows snow with that next system on Tuesday. With two models showing it now... this seems like the next period to watch. Particularly for areas to the north and east of Seattle. 1 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 14 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: 12Z GEM also shows snow with that next system on Tuesday. With two models showing it now... this seems like the next period to watch. Particularly for areas to the north and east of Seattle. The period @Deweydog originally highlighted for overperformance? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 2 minutes ago, RentonHill said: The period @Deweydog originally highlighted for overperformance? I don't think so... he said was actually referring to his "acceptance Wednesday" over-performing which means the models were going to take a big dump that day. And that is what happened. I originally thought he was talking about the middle of next week as well. 2 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: I don't think so... he said was actually referring to his "acceptance Wednesday" over-performing which means the models were going to take a big dump that day. And that is what happened. I originally thought he was talking about the middle of next week as well. we are all just pawns in his little game 1 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 38 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Always a fun time with the GFS... it barely shows it going below freezing at all with the main cold air event but then assumes it will still be cold enough for lowland snow up north when the next system arrives. Dewpoints. 2 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 lol 1-3" was forecast. ended up with 1/4" of slush and 34 degrees. headed to 40. suppose to get the blast over night into tomorrow. down to 1 on Sunday night. doubt it. Company all hands call in 5 min. our '22 numbers are probably as bad as the weather. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 The Fuzz. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 I can't remember EVER seing a 1053 winter high move down the bc coast and not have interesting winter weather in the area. Bellingham will feel the cold though. 1 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 This ain’t gonna do it. 1 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 15 minutes ago, Chris said: I believe you're mistaking a displaced polar vortex with a full wind reversal in the polar jet. The latter is the SSW. This chart kind of explains it Here is the current GFS forecast: And the Euro That EPS spaghetti. Just awful. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 27, 2023 Report Share Posted January 27, 2023 9 minutes ago, Phil said: This ain’t gonna do it. Phix it Phil!! I need snow!! 1 1 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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