PNW January 2023 Observations and Discussion

[SnowWillarrive]

9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I don't really consider cold without snow.    Don't even feel the need to mention it to family.    Its a non-event in terms of daily life.

But a snowstorm and then cold... that sets of all the bells and whistles for me!

I totally and completely understand some people are just as excited about only cold and that is awesome.    Just explaining my perspective.   

 

Cold without snow is just a pedestrian day. 

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, Doinko said:

What are 850s like on WB at hr 144 compared to the past few runs? Nice to see snow looking a bit better

Way colder!    00Z run showed -10C on Monday morning over SEA and 12Z shows -14C.   That is impressive.

[Doinko]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Way colder!    00Z run showed -10C on Monday morning over SEA and 12Z shows -14C.   That is impressive.

GEM shows 850s near -16c over PDX and Euro looks like -14c/-15c. That would be pretty incredible, first arctic blast since December 2013 here if that verified.

[BLI snowman]

2 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

GFS is also running! what a treat

Loving the late Euro! 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Doinko said:

GEM shows 850s near -16c over PDX and Euro looks like -14c/-15c. That would be pretty incredible, first arctic blast since December 2013 here if that verified.

Yeah... as modeled the people who love cold are going to be very happy and the people who need snow with the cold are probably going to be more salty than usual knowing we finally get a major arctic blast and it comes with no snow.  

Subject to change of course! 

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF out to day 9 now... its one a shot deal on this run.   

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, SnowWillarrive said:

Cold without snow is just a pedestrian day. 

I would rather have it be 60 and sunny if we can’t get any snow up here. 
 

I’m on a negativity roll today! 

[Doinko]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... as modeled the people who love cold are going to be very happy and the people who need snow with the cold are probably going to be more salty than usual knowing we finally get a major arctic blast and it comes with no snow.  

Subject to change of course! 

Yeah, I'd really love to see some snow but if we see a major upper level event like this I'll still be happy.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

18 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Easily the best so far

 

Gonna be cold on Monday!

[BLI snowman]

18z ICON was a hair colder at the end of the run. 516 thickness to Portland by 10am Sunday.

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF out to day 9 now... its one a shot deal on this run.   

This is for tomorrow, Tim. Pace yourself.

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

18z ICON was a hair colder at the end of the run. 516 thickness to Portland by 10am Sunday.

GEM shows 850s getting down to -16c over PDX, and the Euro is nearly there. I wonder if SLE will finally record an 850mb temp below -12c

[TacomaWx]

My prediction for mid 30s for this with little no snow for SEA yesterday may be a good call. Wouldn’t be surprised if statistically it ends up similar to February 2022. We pulled off a 35/21, 37/23 and a 40/24 IIRC. 

[Doinko]

GFS is showing some snow for Seattle

[BLI snowman]

2 minutes ago, Doinko said:

GEM shows 850s getting down to -16c over PDX, and the Euro is nearly there. I wonder if SLE will finally record an 850mb temp below -12c

Would be the coldest in January since the big late January 1980 backdoor airmass. 

[Deweydog]

For anyone who might care, the last time Aunt 570 flow paid a visit to Anchorage during the cold season was on 1/1/17. Most progs have this particular ridge a touch stronger with things topping out of there around 575dm. That’s pretty rarified air when it comes to analogs.

Bottom line is, it’s teleconnectively orgasmic. Yes, Tim, it probably won’t last long. 

[Doinko]

Nice snowfall on the GFS

 

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, Doinko said:

GFS is showing some snow for Seattle

Just enough moisture on Saturday evening before it dries out completely... it has been showing snow for Seattle for 4 runs in a row but less with each run and the front is moving through faster than on the 12Z run.     Looks like its compromising with the ECMWF which makes sense since its only 4 days away.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

For anyone who might care, the last time Aunt 570 flow paid a visit to Anchorage during the cold season was on 1/1/17. Most progs have this particular ridge a touch stronger with things topping out of there around 575dm. That’s pretty rarified air when it comes to analogs.

Bottom line is, it’s teleconnectively orgasmic. Yes, Tim, it probably won’t last long. 

So it happened in January just 6 years ago!   I am pretty sure it snowed here with that one.  

[Phishy Wx]

Cold is worth it IMO if its top shelf record breaking in the negatives stuff

 

other than that Meh

 

with that said , still all in

[MossMan]

7 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

My prediction for mid 30s for this with little no snow for SEA yesterday may be a good call. Wouldn’t be surprised if statistically it ends up similar to February 2022. We pulled off a 35/21, 37/23 and a 40/24 IIRC. 

It was snowy last February! 

 

Edited January 24, 2023 by MossMan

[BLI snowman]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

For anyone who might care, the last time Aunt 570 flow paid a visit to Anchorage during the cold season was on 1/1/17. Most progs have this particular ridge a touch stronger with things topping out of there around 575dm. That’s pretty rarified air when it comes to analogs.

Bottom line is, it’s teleconnectively orgasmic. Yes, Tim, it probably won’t last long. 

Also very disappointing that something as objectively infallible as 120 hour snow forecasts aren't showing much falling in western WA. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

For anyone who might care, the last time Aunt 570 flow paid a visit to Anchorage during the cold season was on 1/1/17. Most progs have this particular ridge a touch stronger with things topping out of there around 575dm. That’s pretty rarified air when it comes to analogs.

Bottom line is, it’s teleconnectively orgasmic. Yes, Tim, it probably won’t last long. 

Funny because Aunt 570 was married to Rich Marriot But Rich cheated with a 504dm and the rest is history. 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Phishy Wx said:

Cold is worth it IMO if its top shelf record breaking in the negatives stuff

 

or than that Meh

 

with that said , still all in

I am sure nature is gearing up to offset this with a mega heat wave this summer... our seasons are becoming more amplified it seems.    

Surprisingly... I actually prefer an arctic blast to a mega heat wave.    

[RentonHill]

EPS 850s vs 00z

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Also very disappointing that something as objectively infallible as 120 hour snow forecasts aren't showing much falling in western WA. 

Its the nightmare of February 2014 all over again!  

[Doinko]

2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Also very disappointing that something as objectively infallible as 120 hour snow forecasts aren't showing much falling in western WA. 

Really hope we could see a good overrunning event towards the end. I know it's way out there but do you think the pattern is conducive to undercutting of that ridge?

[MossMan]

8 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

For anyone who might care, the last time Aunt 570 flow paid a visit to Anchorage during the cold season was on 1/1/17. Most progs have this particular ridge a touch stronger with things topping out of there around 575dm. That’s pretty rarified air when it comes to analogs.

Bottom line is, it’s teleconnectively orgasmic. Yes, Tim, it probably won’t last long. 

1/1/17! 

[Cascadia_Wx]

9 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Would be the coldest in January since the big late January 1980 backdoor airmass. 

Gross. Barf. Nasty. Really hope this ends up another Randy-centric snow event while the rest of us are on the outside looking in with no appreciable cold or snow for the rest of the region. Still a lot of time!!!  

[Doinko]

GFS is by far the warmest of the three main models.

[TT-SEA]

Total snow per 18Z GFS through Sunday morning... precip is all done except for southern OR at this time.   About 12 hours faster than the 12Z run.  

 

[Doinko]

EPS looks fantastic. Mean bottoms out at -11.0, Operational bottoms out at -15.0 and the control gets all the way to -19.4

[MossMan]

3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Gross. Barf. Nasty. Really hope this ends up another Randy-centric snow event while the rest of us are on the outside looking in with no appreciable cold or snow for the rest of the region. Still a lot of time!!!  

I like this new Jesse!! 

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Gross. Barf. Nasty. Really hope this ends up another Randy-centric snow event while the rest of us are on the outside looking in with no appreciable cold or snow for the rest of the region. Still a lot of time!!!  

Oh Jesse good one Randy sure does like his snow and dogs and kids and boats haha seriously I hope everyone does well are you having a good day 

[JW8]

Can't wait for my .026" of snow and a couple days in the mid 30s! BIG LEAGUE STUFF!!! 

[Cold Snap]

Honestly if I can manage just an inch going into this cold I’ll be happy.

[SnowWillarrive]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Total snow per 18Z GFS through Sunday morning... precip is all done except for southern OR at this time.   About 12 hours faster than the 12Z run.  

 

Bullseye over swamp

[Doinko]

GFS clips us with another arctic airmass and brings us a bit more snow

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF shows a high of 33 in Seattle on Monday without a cloud in the sky.   In fact it shows no clouds anywhere in WA or OR that day.  

[thickhog]

15 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Nice snowfall on the GFS

 

We’ll take anything we can get!