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December Weather In the PNW


BLI snowman

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Hard to image any precip type besides snow...at least north of Seattle. It’s cold up here! Still sitting at 25. I don’t know what the 850’s are above my head though.

 

Yeah it's a cold morning. Still 29 here with a solid cloud cover.

Low of 23 this morning

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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32 with ZR here. Ugh

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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King 5 is already walking back the snow and now only calling for a dusting at best most places.

 

They claimed to be showing the UW high resolution model but it showed literally nothing for the lowlands... Which even the WRF this morning showed some snow for areas near Olympia. Not sure what's going on there

That's why you never listen to a paid talking head in front of a camera who knows nothing about our regional climate

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King 5 is already walking back the snow and now only calling for a dusting at best most places.

 

They claimed to be showing the UW high resolution model but it showed literally nothing for the lowlands... Which even the WRF this morning showed some snow for areas near Olympia. Not sure what's going on there.

 

I have low regard for King 5

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King 5 is already walking back the snow and now only calling for a dusting at best most places.

They claimed to be showing the UW high resolution model but it showed literally nothing for the lowlands... Which even the WRF this morning showed some snow for areas near Olympia. Not sure what's going on there.

That channel hates snow. They use emotion more than science.

We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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King 5 is already walking back the snow and now only calling for a dusting at best most places.

 

They claimed to be showing the UW high resolution model but it showed literally nothing for the lowlands... Which even the WRF this morning showed some snow for areas near Olympia. Not sure what's going on there.

King 5 has the least accurate people. During the 2008 storm they said 0 to 5.

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‘Twas -3F at my house at 2am this morning. I happened to wake up and check outside for any additional snowfall, there wasn’t any, but the thermometer read below zero for the first time this season. I love it. All the stars were out and the moon was gleaming bright. Just surreal!

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Haha, to the contrary. I’d been bearish on February, but I’m starting to think there might be a chance for some amplification if the MJO stays active and prevents the NPAC from locking into a -PNA/+EPO regime.

So...you are changing some of the details/timing of your forecast. Jesse's read was not incorrect.

A forum for the end of the world.

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Mark Nelsen was hinting at a better chance of snow mixing in overnight here.  If that is the case then we are in for it later.

 

The euro seems to have been right with the idea of a double barrel low with pretty much every model this morning showing the same. Might be interesting if the 2nd center of low pressure heading south can slow down or prevent the air aloft from getting warmed as quickly. 

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How long this lasts is important, too.

 

There will undoubtedly be a period of PV/+AO strengthening next month. So, we’ll need to find a way to dislodge it.

 

EvrHM8C.png

What you actually think will happen is getting pretty hard to follow. I’m not sure if that’s what you are going for. Hard to pin someone down for being wrong when you don’t even fully understand what they are calling for and they are presenting a lot of seemingly conflicting information. ;)

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Guest Dome Buster

he is on vacation

Oh I know, he is still forecasting on his blog though.  And I know he is checking emails.  He has really turned into a warm bias old man.  Miss his enthusiasm he had when he was younger.

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The euro seems to have been right with the idea of a double barrel low with pretty much every model this morning showing the same. Might be interesting if the 2nd center of low pressure heading south can slow down or prevent the air aloft from getting warmed as quickly.

The 12z Euro will be out soon. Will be interesting to see if it switches back to this idea.

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