TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 22, 2018 Report Share Posted January 22, 2018 Hour 384 is hilarious...-41C 850mb temperatures. Might be the most widespread cold I’ve ever seen modeled in the Arctic. Going to waste... #OneDay #1950redux 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 22, 2018 Report Share Posted January 22, 2018 Hour 384 is hilarious...-41C 850mb temperatures. Might be the most widespread cold I’ve ever seen modeled in the Arctic Are you sure you don’t think it’s hilarious just because it shows us getting shafted again? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 22, 2018 Report Share Posted January 22, 2018 Very disappointing model bust. Oh well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted January 22, 2018 Report Share Posted January 22, 2018 It's just one run. We'll see what the GEFS shows and of course King EURO at 9:45 PM. However, this would seem to follow the GEFS, EPS, CMCE Ensembles with the slow eastward trend of the ridge after day 9-10 the past several runs. That's never good. --6z GFS in 4 hours 34 minutesGEM has not been great either ... but correct... one run, and just like one run is not the holy grail of something good/great coming neither is this for something not so good. Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 22, 2018 Report Share Posted January 22, 2018 For entertainment purposes only...-41C 850mb temperatures in the clown range. Might be the most widespread cold I’ve ever seen modeled in the Arctic. Wow. That should give the sea-ice a boost perhaps. Poor Penguins and Polar Bears. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 22, 2018 Report Share Posted January 22, 2018 Are you sure you don’t think it’s hilarious just because it shows us getting shafted again?Only because you guys attacked me (again) for providing honest analysis on the run. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted January 22, 2018 Report Share Posted January 22, 2018 Only because you guys attacked me (again) for providing honest analysis on the run. I appreciate your rational analysis... I never understand why people do not appreciate truth. Weird year... keep it coming Phil you rock! 2 Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 22, 2018 Report Share Posted January 22, 2018 I’ll take some improvements in the believable mid range over a highly unlikely mega blast towards day 14. That one is probably not going to happen.The potential for a significant Arctic blast looks much higher during the first week of February than it did at any time last winter. Whether or not that potential can be realized is another story altogether. 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted January 22, 2018 Report Share Posted January 22, 2018 It's just one run. We'll see what the GEFS shows and of course King EURO at 9:45 PM. However, this would seem to follow the GEFS, EPS, CMCE Ensembles with the slow eastward trend of the ridge after day 9-10 the past several runs. That's never good. --6z GFS in 4 hours 34 minutesYeah, it's just one run. Onto the 00z King EURO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 22, 2018 Report Share Posted January 22, 2018 Wow. That should give the sea-ice a boost perhaps. Poor Penguins and Polar Bears.If the upstream waves behave, that Arctic air could all be yours. I’m only half joking about that. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 22, 2018 Report Share Posted January 22, 2018 The wave break that determines everything occurs between hr108 - hr144. We need to trend it better soon. 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 22, 2018 Report Share Posted January 22, 2018 Only because you guys attacked me (again) for providing honest analysis on the run. It was a legitimate point. Your analysis, honest or not, is sometimes biased by how you think things should play out. Doesn't always work out that way. See the 18z. But we're still talking about low-res, clown range developments anyway. It's understandable people would take improvements in the more believable range, regardless of how the clown range goes. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 22, 2018 Report Share Posted January 22, 2018 I've a feeling the ensembles will show the same thing. Which is good because the folks in the eastern half of the country are really overdue for some arctic air. #slidingeast Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 22, 2018 Report Share Posted January 22, 2018 It was a legitimate point. Your analysis, honest or not, is sometimes biased by how you think things should play out. Doesn't always work out that way.Umm, what else could possibly send Arctic air into the PNW besides an upstream wavebreak? With all due respect, what you’re saying here doesn’t make any sense. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted January 22, 2018 Report Share Posted January 22, 2018 It was a legitimate point. Your analysis, honest or not, is sometimes biased by how you think things should play out. Doesn't always work out that way. See the 18z. But we're still talking about low-res, clown range developments anyway. It's understandable people would take improvements in the more believable range, regardless of how the clown range goes.To be fair some of the causes in the clown range are earlier in the run, which causes the PNW failure to score the goods later on. 1 Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 22, 2018 Report Share Posted January 22, 2018 To be fair some of the causes in the clown range are earlier in the run, which causes the PNW failure to score the goodsPretty much this, as is modeled now. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 22, 2018 Report Share Posted January 22, 2018 The potential for a significant Arctic blast looks much higher during the first week of February than it did at any time last winter. Whether or not that potential can be realized is another story altogether.Meh. I thought our window to score closed yesterday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 22, 2018 Report Share Posted January 22, 2018 Euro also looking more suppressed later in the week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 22, 2018 Report Share Posted January 22, 2018 00z ECMWF Day 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted January 22, 2018 Author Report Share Posted January 22, 2018 Hour 384 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 22, 2018 Report Share Posted January 22, 2018 Day 10 EWWWWWWWWW. NOPE Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted January 22, 2018 Report Share Posted January 22, 2018 Still getting some heavy post-front showers here at 41F, must be dumping snow in the mountains. Normally I'd expect this to shift into the PSCZ, but surface winds remain southerly on both sides of the Olympics. Still the rain in this area this evening was poorly forecast by most of the models even as recently as the 0z runs, which showed shadowing over the SE part of the island. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted January 22, 2018 Report Share Posted January 22, 2018 Day 10 EWWWWWWWWW. NOPE It's going to be a long two weeks, but I wouldn't be surprised to see things flip back to better solutions tomorrow. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 22, 2018 Report Share Posted January 22, 2018 00z suite was a dud for sure. It could all change suddenly in our favor with 12z tomorrow though. Will it? Eh, I'm cautiously optimistic. --6z GFS in 3 hours 14 minutes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 22, 2018 Report Share Posted January 22, 2018 Well this place sure died. But the boat show is coming!! 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 22, 2018 Report Share Posted January 22, 2018 Blake Shelton was speaking to me directly tonight... Some beach... SomewhereThere's a big umbrella casting shade over an empty chairPalm trees are growing and warm breezes blowingI picture myself right thereOn some beach, somewhere Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
van city Posted January 22, 2018 Report Share Posted January 22, 2018 Blake Shelton was speaking to me directly tonight... Some beach... SomewhereThere's a big umbrella casting shade over an empty chairPalm trees are growing and warm breezes blowingI picture myself right thereOn some beach, somewhereYou OK? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 22, 2018 Report Share Posted January 22, 2018 Looks like both the GEPS and GEFS are going with the EPS. Ridge Amplifies along the coast and the arctic air is dumped into the prairies. Maybe the 0z EPS will start a trend in the other direction. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted January 22, 2018 Report Share Posted January 22, 2018 Blake Shelton was speaking to me directly tonight... Some beach... SomewhereThere's a big umbrella casting shade over an empty chairPalm trees are growing and warm breezes blowingI picture myself right thereOn some beach, somewhereYou try too hard Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 22, 2018 Report Share Posted January 22, 2018 It was a gorgeous day at Silver Mountain... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 22, 2018 Report Share Posted January 22, 2018 00Z EPS still shows the quick shot of cold air... now around day 9... and then everything slides way east again. Ironically... the GFS is starting to pick up on this idea now. EPS has been very consistent. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 22, 2018 Report Share Posted January 22, 2018 Winter Cancel incoming... Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 22, 2018 Report Share Posted January 22, 2018 Winter Cancel incoming...From Andrew? He’s been doing those about twice a week since late November. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 22, 2018 Report Share Posted January 22, 2018 Down to 44 at PDX... Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 22, 2018 Report Share Posted January 22, 2018 00Z EPS still shows the quick shot of cold air... now around day 9... and then everything slides way east again. Ironically... the GFS is starting to pick up on this idea now. EPS has been very consistent. Yeah 00z EPS was awful. Ridge is far too close. I don't know how Days 10-15 look. --6z GFS in 39 minutes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 22, 2018 Report Share Posted January 22, 2018 One thing I keep thinking about is with the forecast WPO to tank that "should" block the pacific jet entirely with ridging around 160 W, not closer to us. or am I just too tired and have that backwards. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 22, 2018 Report Share Posted January 22, 2018 Yeah 00z EPS was awful. Ridge is far too close. I don't know how Days 10-15 look. --6z GFS in 39 minutesI had second thoughts before posting this, considering how hated I already am (lol), but the extended range EPS is essentially a return to the pattern we just left. Baffin Bay death vortex and an extended east-Asian jet. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 22, 2018 Report Share Posted January 22, 2018 I had second thoughts before posting this, considering how hated I already am on here (lol), but the extended range EPS is essentially a return to the pattern we just left. Baffin Bay death vortex and an extended east-Asian jet. That stinks. Not sure who hates you? Oh and that pattern stinks. Thanks for all of the analysis and posting the charts so often. --6z GFS in 2 minutes 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfan2012 Posted January 22, 2018 Report Share Posted January 22, 2018 I had second thoughts before posting this, considering how hated I already am (lol), but the extended range EPS is essentially a return to the pattern we just left. Baffin Bay death vortex and an extended east-Asian jet. the 2013 -2017 mean pattern that just won't be denied talk about a lazy mode mean pattern that seems stuck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 22, 2018 Report Share Posted January 22, 2018 Models went to complete shi+ real quick today. It was looking interesting this time last night. How quickly things change. On to 2018-19. 2 bad/snowless winters in a row happens pretty frequently here so 18-19 will likely end up snowless too. That's now a lot of lousy winters this decade here. 10-11, 11-12, 12-13 all had nothing, and 14-15, 15-16, and now 17-18 were goose-eggs too. 6 of the 8 winters have had zilch. Contrast that with 00-01, 01-02, 02-03, 04-05, 05-06, then 4 in a row with low elevation snow from 2006-07 through 2009-10 with only 5 of 10 snowless, and the 90s had more than the '10s too so I'm going to assume some sort of warming is causing this. Really want to move... Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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