February 2018 Observations and Discussion

[westMJim]

Big temperature spread this AM the airport is reporting 16° but here at my house I clear skies and +4 while in the far back yards cold sport it is only +2°

[Stacsh]

Big temperature spread this AM the airport is reporting 16° but here at my house I clear skies and +4 while in the far back yards cold sport it is only +2°

21 at my house along the lakeshore and I hit -1 on my drive in to GR out in the country.  

[Snowshoe]

Misses to the north and misses to the south, here I am stuck in the middle. Hoping the next 2 weeks fills in the gap.

 

[Tom]

Happy Monday!  Back on the grind today as it's going to be a busy week of work and tracking storm systems.  Meantime, I saw these graphics on WGN and I happened to come across a fun fact.  Last year, ORD ONLY managed 18.3" of snow, coincidentally, the recent historic stretch of measurable snow, ORD officially tallied 18.3"!

 

 

If you tally up the #'s...they add up to 18.3"...which is also basically 1/2 of the seasons avg...

 

 

 

 

 

Last 7-days of snowfall...

 

 

 

Enjoy the snow while you can Chicagoans, the pattern is going to change and it doesn't look as promising as once advertised.  We may be riding a very tight gradient pattern that sets up shop around the region.  The magnitude of the EC ridge (-PNA) is eye popping and the lack of a Greenland Block is becoming a concern.  The folks out in the Plains and western MW may be in line for a stretch of wintry weather beginning late weekend into early next week.

[Niko]

The pattern is not looking good down the road for any wintery big storms (especially for the Chicagoan's) to approach your normal seasonal snowfall level or even exceed it. Time is running out!!!! We will see how it ends up. Good luck!

[Niko]

Currently @ 18F w deep, blue sunny skies. Finally, the sunshine is out. Feels great!

[Iowawx]

Happy Monday! Back on the grind today as it's going to be a busy week of work and tracking storm systems. Meantime, I saw these graphics on WGN and I happened to come across a fun fact. Last year, ORD ONLY managed 18.3" of snow, coincidentally, the recent historic stretch of measurable snow, ORD officially tallied 18.3"!

 

 

If you tally up the #'s...they add up to 18.3"...which is also basically 1/2 of the seasons avg...

 

 

 

 

 

Last 7-days of snowfall...

 

 

 

Enjoy the snow while you can Chicagoans, the pattern is going to change and it doesn't look as promising as once advertised. We may be riding a very tight gradient pattern that sets up shop around the region. The magnitude of the EC ridge (-PNA) is eye popping and the lack of a Greenland Block is becoming a concern. The folks out in the Plains and western MW may be in line for a stretch of wintry weather beginning late weekend into early next week.

How does the pattern look for eastern Iowa?

[Tabitha]

The pattern is not looking good down the road for any wintery big storms (especially for the Chicagoan's) to approach your normal seasonal snowfall level or even exceed it. Time is running out!!!! We will see how it ends up. Good luck!

 

I may be one of the more negative posters from a snow perspective; but I can categorically say that time is NOT running out.

 

Even on the East Coast; major snowstorms can take place right through mid-April.

 

So that goes double for Chicago northbound / areas above the 42nd Parallel.

 

Even where I am at; after a perfectly dreadful 1st half of the winter; I feel pretty sure that a good seasonal total will be achieved before all is said & done.

 

In fairness, the snow season here is probably extended roughly 4 - 5 weeks longer than say someplace like Chicago...

[Tabitha]

If a town is way ahead and above their normal early in the snowfall race; they will eventually come back to earth and slow down.

 

The reverse is also true.

 

Water always reaches its level.

[james1976]

Time is not running out for Chicago. What do they need......10" to top the seasonal avg? Its only Feb 12th.

[Tabitha]

Water always reaches its level.

 

 

If you are wondering from where and whom I learned that bit of scientific wisdom; the linked video should prove illustrative:

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dd02sLgdi-k#t=18m00s

[Tom]

How does the pattern look for eastern Iowa?

That's a tough call right now, I'd be more encouraged sitting near DSM than E IA.  A very similar pattern is setting that happened second half of January but instead of a +EPO back then, there is a -EPO/-WPO in place which seeds cold into the pattern.  Lack of a -AO/-NAO doesn't help to really push the cold deeper into the central CONUS.  NE peeps may have their luck turn around though.

 

 

Time is not running out for Chicago. What do they need......10" to top the seasonal avg? Its only Feb 12th.

This, x100...it's Niko's way of throwing a "jab" at Chicagoans...

[CentralNebWeather]

I thought NWS Hastings had an interesting write up this morning.  Kind of lines up with what Tom has been saying about things looking better the farther west you are in the sub forum, not sure though of snow potential with this pattern.

 

There is widespread agreement among long-term models that another shot
of Arctic air will head south into our area by Monday, giving US
highs only in the 20s, and this below normal streak looks like it
could last for most if not all of next week as a stubborn upper
level mean trough will probably ensure it. This cold pattern has
been quite stubborn for over a couple of months and seems like it
is a tough one to crack, only this go around, we will be
influenced by a trough keeping the northwestern quarter of the
country below normal, instead of the eastern 2/3 of the country up
until now, essentially. So the positioning is somewhat different,
but the outcome will be familiar....more colder than normal
temperatures for next week.

[St Paul Storm]

That's a tough call right now, I'd be more encouraged sitting near DSM than E IA. A very similar pattern is setting that happened second half of January but instead of a +EPO back then, there is a -EPO/-WPO in place which seeds cold into the pattern. Lack of a -AO/-NAO doesn't help to really push the cold deeper into the central CONUS. NE peeps may have their luck around though.

 

 

 

This, x100...it's Niko's way of throwing a "jab" at Chicagoans...

I agree with both sets of comments here. It’s gonna depend on where that ridge sets up. Models this morning have a few systems traversing the upper Lakes and western Midwest over the next 2 weeks. Fun tracking ahead regardless if it hits mby or not.

 

How can one take a jab at a town that just got 12-18” and 9 consecutive days of snow? That’s like trolling the winners of the Superbowl.

[Tabitha]

As of the close of business at midnight; Chicago O'Hare reported a seasonal snow total of 28.3"

 

Normal year to date is 24.3"; so they are running 4 inches above normal.

 

Normal seasonal snowfall there is about 39 inches; again depending on what part of the climate record you access; there could be some slight variations north or south of that number.

[Tom]

I wonder how much influence this snow pack will have down the road...some of these snow depths south of Chicago are deep.

 

 

 

[BLIZZARD09]

Happy Monday!  Back on the grind today as it's going to be a busy week of work and tracking storm systems.  Meantime, I saw these graphics on WGN and I happened to come across a fun fact.  Last year, ORD ONLY managed 18.3" of snow, coincidentally, the recent historic stretch of measurable snow, ORD officially tallied 18.3"!

 

 

If you tally up the #'s...they add up to 18.3"...which is also basically 1/2 of the seasons avg...

 

 

 

 

 

Last 7-days of snowfall...

 

 

 

Enjoy the snow while you can Chicagoans, the pattern is going to change and it doesn't look as promising as once advertised.  We may be riding a very tight gradient pattern that sets up shop around the region.  The magnitude of the EC ridge (-PNA) is eye popping and the lack of a Greenland Block is becoming a concern.  The folks out in the Plains and western MW may be in line for a stretch of wintry weather beginning late weekend into early next week.

well at least we had one great week

[Jaycee]

This is a tad off topic, but I just read that this is the least active severe weather "winter" season since 2003-2004. Anyone else remember how severe weather season turned out that year? I don't know about you all, but my gosh, I cannot WAIT for spring this year! I have a good feeling that it will be amped up for most of us, and maybe we'll see some high risks this year. I can't complain about last year, I had some incredible storms right in my backyard. Just to remind you guys, here's some pictures I got last year:

 

 

 

 

[Tabitha]

18z NAM now printing out 5.9".

 

Not sure what it is seeing that all the others are missing; though the 12z NMM (or is it NNM?) & ARW's were pretty wet...though they run off the NAM grid.

 

The Globals were pretty dry; but they might not be tuned to pick up a mesoscale event.

 

Should be a good test for the NAM.

 

I think my reservations and suspicions about  Mr. Kuchera's snow prediction system might have some legitimacy; as I've measured about 6/10 ths of an inch of new snow since it started snowing over 16 hours ago....

 

Temp 5 F with light snow falling @ 10:30 AM MDT.

[gabel23]

Some update totals for me......

 

Snowfall in Feb: 10" 

 

Snowfall for season to date: 28.5" 

 

Current snow depth: 10". 

 

This has been one of the coldest winter's for my area in quiet some time.....the winter of 2009-10 had much more snow to date and wasn't as cold. I would say the winter of 2000-01 would be closer to comparison in terms of temperature. My assistant coach does a lot of ice fishing and he mentioned the ice is 18" thick! 

[NEJeremy]

I’ve heard about a comparison to 2014 due to the current drought conditions down south and how the dry line etc set up that year and coming out of a La Niña. 2014 was a VERY active year severe weather wise in Nebraska. Mother’s Day and Pilger were 2 of the bigger events that year

 

This is a tad off topic, but I just read that this is the least active severe weather "winter" season since 2003-2004. Anyone else remember how severe weather season turned out that year? I don't know about you all, but my gosh, I cannot WAIT for spring this year! I have a good feeling that it will be amped up for most of us, and maybe we'll see some high risks this year. I can't complain about last year, I had some incredible storms right in my backyard. Just to remind you guys, here's some pictures I got last year:

 

IMG_0706.JPG

 

 

 

IMG_0698.JPG

[Jaycee]

I’ve heard about a comparison to 2014 due to the current drought conditions down south and how the dry line etc set up that year and coming out of a La Niña. 2014 was a VERY active year severe weather wise in Nebraska. Mother’s Day and Pilger were 2 of the bigger events that year

 

 

That was a great year for sure. We're also at the 10 year anniversary of 2008 severe weather season, which was probably the most insane year I can remember. This year so far winter-wise seems pretty similar to what happened that year. Granted I'm terrible at comparisons, I just am going off of what I can remember. That said, I think we have a great setup for this year!

[hlcater]

I’ve heard about a comparison to 2014 due to the current drought conditions down south and how the dry line etc set up that year and coming out of a La Niña. 2014 was a VERY active year severe weather wise in Nebraska. Mother’s Day and Pilger were 2 of the bigger events that year

If we can keep our MJO in phases 6 and 7 and keep a big trough in the west, that'd be great running into spring. 2014 was good for NE and IA, but sucked for pretty much everywhere else. Hopefully we can resolve the plains drought somewhat over the next 2 months. As long as the December pattern doesn't return, we should be fine.

[NEJeremy]

That was a great year for sure. We're also at the 10 year anniversary of 2008 severe weather season, which was probably the most insane year I can remember. This year so far winter-wise seems pretty similar to what happened that year. Granted I'm terrible at comparisons, I just am going off of what I can remember. That said, I think we have a great setup for this year!

Yeah my memory on that type of stuff is always horrible! I was just reading up on some stuff on Stormtrack and that comparison was put out there. A lot of those chasers on that forum are further south and talked about how horrible 2014 was for them, and in my head I was thinking that was a good year for me though. I went back and looked at my chase accounts and pics, and suddenly remembered how great that year was! I think I have had only 1 or 2 chases total in the last 2 years in Nebraska.

[NEJeremy]

If we can keep our MJO in phases 6 and 7 and keep a big trough in the west, that'd be great running into spring. 2014 was good for NE and IA, but sucked for pretty much everywhere else. Hopefully we can resolve the plains drought somewhat over the next 2 months. As long as the December pattern doesn't return, we should be fine.

I'm hoping so. This time of year I get the itch for the seasons to flip and we can start severe weather even though we're a couple of months away yet, although I have had a couple of good March chases. One of the things about that year was a lot of HP messes too, although Pilger thankfully wasn't. I'm hoping that drought goes away down south too. The long range keeps showing promise for moisture down that way.

[FV-Mike]

Skilling had a couple of thoughts on the upcoming days. 

 

"We'll definitely melt some snow this week--though a sharp though apparently transient cool down is projected late this week. That February's sun is growing stronger and more direct will be evident in the melting we'll see---even with air temps below freezing the next two days. The flop back to Pacific air promises we'll break above freezing Wednesday and Thursday--and could even see readings top 40.
But a word of caution, the fact Chicago is to sit between unseasonably mild air to the east and colder than normal air over a wide swath of the West would appear--at least on the surface--to place us in a potentially active period for weather. It's in corridors dividing such diverse air masses that storm tracks can set up. And, though specifics are hazy at this distance and one shouldn't put too much in day to day model specifics at such long time ranges, it's interesting that the GFS model suggests four disturbances may traverse the Midwest. It will be interesting to follow future developments to see if anything comes of any of them"

[hlcater]

I'm hoping so. This time of year I get the itch for the seasons to flip and we can start severe weather even though we're a couple of months away yet, although I have had a couple of good March chases. One of the things about that year was a lot of HP messes too, although Pilger thankfully wasn't. I'm hoping that drought goes away down south too. The long range keeps showing promise for moisture down that way.

Although a drought like that would support activity further east, although that is a fine line. I'd honestly rather get rid of the drough than gamble on it working out in our favor. It's also where our EML would be coming from, and a drought in the EML origin area can be no bueno, although I've ever experienced one partial cap bust, so it might be time to change that lol. 2017 was actually pretty good for Iowa, at least one of our better seasons recently. Though that doesn't say much.

[jaster220]

Just finished snowplowing my property and it looks good. Lots of piles. My sub looks very wintery.  Easily ova a foot OTG.

 

Solid 10-20" depth across SMI 

 

 

The Rapid City NWS WFO reported 6/10 ths of an inch of new snow @ Midnight MST...all on 0.01 liquid / 60:1!

 

Talk about getting the most for your money!

 

Alas, Tabitha could make no such grand a claim...coming in with a mere 2/10ths of an inch of snow as per the Same Hour...

 

..speaking of #fakesnow  

[CentralNebWeather]

The forum has gone quiet. Been busy all day, so I am assuming that forecast models don’t show much happening?

[Hawkeye]

Rochester MN: 31.3"

 

Mason City IA: 14.0"

 

Waterloo IA: 20.5"

 

That might be the strangest stat of all...since Mason City is hallway between Rochester & Waterloo... 

 

Mason City has been in a snow hole all season.  They didn't get their first inch til late December.  They've had MUCH more snow than Cedar Rapids the last few winters, and it's probably rare that CR finishes with more than MC.

[Hawkeye]

Today's 12z Euro shows big rainfall from OK to MO to IL to southern MI in the 5-10 day range.  I was shocked to bring up the Euro's 10-day temp forecast for Cedar Rapids and see next Monday's high temp of 67!!!  Of course, there is very little ensemble support for that kind of warmth.  The ensemble mean high for Monday is only 37.

[BLIZZARD09]

It hurts that I everything I write goes ignored...but I suppose The Clique has declared me persona non grata...and that's not something I can circumvent...

 

I wonder why I am the object of disaffection wherever I go...

 

Thank goodness this stuff is almost over per the actuarial charts...

I have read your posts--with interest

[Minny_Weather]

Mason City has been in a snow hole all season.  They didn't get their first inch til late December.  They've had MUCH more snow than Cedar Rapids the last few winters, and it's probably rare that CR finishes with more than MC.

When Lincoln has more than Mason City then there's a problem.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Everything I wrote here was either ignored or ridiculed; so there is nothing left for me to write.

 

 

A Lonely Star

© Mikayela Dzenowski

A lonely star

Sits in the sky

It starts to flicker

and begins to cry

 

A lonely star

looks down on us all

It takes a step 

and starts to fall

 

A lonely star

Falling down

like an apple from a tree

it still wears a frown

 

A lonely star

laying on the ground

it looks to the moon

a home it never found

 

A lonely star

whose light is fading

is cold and crying

She spent her whole life waiting

 

A lonely star

blinks her goodbye's

her light goes out

and she slowly dies

 

 

[GDR]

I now wish I didn’t get any snow because the temp would be in the 60s this week but now just upper 40s and a slop fest

[Tom]

Thus far, it has been an extreme Feb in various aspects in the world of weather. Firstly, we had just recently experienced a record poleward heat flux which categorically split the Polar Vortex this past weekend. You can read Dr. Cohen's blog here: https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

 

Second, most of us along the I-80 corridor just experienced a long stretch of cold and snowy weather that lightened up the mood on here for winter weather fans. Now, what is in store down the road??? Well, it's the continuation of the extreme as a highly amplified pattern takes place over the course of the next 2 weeks. Record heat to the east and cold to the west will be the theme. Surely, the pattern relaxes this week and a bit of a Thaw will take place but will the active pattern re-establish itself again??? This time, I think there is the likelihood that the main storm track may not be as favorable to those in the eastern part of the sub forum (including MBY). All the models are suggesting an impressive -3/-4 PNA pattern, of which, if you recall, similarly happened during the Jan Thaw period.

 

http://wx.graphics/models/oscillation/ecmwf_eps_pna_2018021300.png

 

 

 

 

To the contrary, during the Jan Thaw period, the aforementioned period going forward, models are finally starting to agree that Polar Blocking will in fact take shape...but to what extent??? These are the factors which will help produce a favorable storm track across our sub forum. At this point, I'm favoring a wintry pattern to set up across the Plains/MW region...GL's area may be a big battle zone and likely a place where there could be a slop fest.

 

Here's what I'm looking for and anticipating. There is a big storm system that has cycled through LRC cycle #1, #2 and now I'm anticipating it to cycle back early next week. This system in both cycles had a sub tropical connection. Is it a coincidence the STJ becomes active early next week? Remember the Nov 17th-18th and bomb cyclone Jan 3rd-4th??? Both systems were major storms and one would imagine it would be another big system during this cycle. Models are struggling with the pattern later next week but it looks pretty certain to me that the Plains will continue to experience BN temps and into the western portion of the MW. I favor places from IA and points W/NW of there to be in the best position to see snow.

[Tom]

Is the GGEM/ICON just noise for late this weekend near the Lakes/OV???  Occasionally, I've seen both score a coupe...lets see if we see any trends today.

 

 

 

 

 

[St Paul Storm]

Looking forward to 40F and full sun tomorrow, with a stiff wind out of the SW. I’m ready to melt the dirty snow down and lay a nice fresh base. The Twin Cities is currently ranked #1 in the country for reported cases of the flu. I don’t have the flu but I’ve had a nasty respiratory virus for almost 2 weeks. I need to feel the sun and breathe in some fresh air.

[Minny_Weather]

Tom, what do you think about the possible SSW? Seeing a lot of pro mets impressed with it.

[Tom]

Tom, what do you think about the possible SSW? Seeing a lot of pro mets impressed with it.

It already has started and is continuing as we speak which will in all likelihood propagate downward and establish a ton of high lat blocking, of which, we have not seen in 5 years.  Winter is far from over and I'm expecting a very wild, potentially epic start to March...#BlizzardZone