VancouverIslandSouth Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 Does not get better until around 192 hours. I'd be happier with what the 12z GFS is showing, delayed cold rare works out in this timeframe. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 Reload coming after day ten it looks like. 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 Frosty! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 Looks like that system rounding the top of the ridge is going to drop south Crashes down fast. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 Looks like that system rounding the top of the ridge is going to drop south Not as cold though. Glad we are not going to CA or Cabo... Hawaii looks much warmer. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 Wrf is going for a couple inches of snow tonight here. The last couple runs showed next to nothing here. That would be cool. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 Not as cold though. Glad we are not going to CA or Cabo... Hawaii looks much warmer. Do you like warm weather more than cold? Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 Do you like warm weather more than cold? I like warm weather on vacation! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 With The stubborn blocking all winter it could be an amazing few weeks if it is stubborn to move in the sweet spot for us. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 Randy is getting buried in snow on Sunday evening in a strong c-zone per the 12Z GFS... Looks like snow for almost everybody in the I-5 corridor starting Sunday night into Monday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 Clown range gfs is fun Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 I like warm weather on vacation! Taking the kids? Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 Not going to happen but fun to look at.The GFS isn't far behind either. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 Taking the kids? Of course. And flying in my mother-in-law from MN for part of the time. She has always dreamed of going to Hawaii. Its been so cold there... she is going to be in heaven. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 The long range GFS gets really good again. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 12z GFS was great. As soon as I saw the energy digging further off southeast Alaska I knew it was going to be a good run. GEM isn't as good, BUT it's real close. Overall 500mb pattern for all models the block placement is fine axis is good, it's all just a matter of amplification. If we see good amplification we'll see modified arctic air with reloads and possibly snow. If not, we will see an initial cold shot and maybe cold enough for low land snow. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 12z GFS was great. As soon as I saw the energy digging further off southeast Alaska I knew it was going to be a good run. GEM isn't as good, BUT it's real close. Overall 500mb pattern for all models the block placement is fine axis is good, it's all just a matter of amplification. If we see good amplification we'll see modified arctic air with reloads and possibly snow. If not, we will see an initial cold shot and maybe cold enough for low land snow. Well the GEM is incredible in the long range. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 Well the GEM is incredible in the long range. The arctic air never makes it south of the Canadian border. I do not believe the GEM's silly snow maps. We'll see. 500mb pattern was good though. That wonky low is what throws a wrench in the GEM. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 PDX hit freezing before midnight last night. Their first freeze since January 2nd. Another big story. It has been incredibly dry so far this month. Most places in the Willamette valley have only seen 0.1-0.2" of precip so far this month. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 Of course. And flying in my mother-in-law from MN for part of the time. She has always dreamed of going to Hawaii. Its been so cold there... she is going to be in heaven. Good man. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 The arctic air never makes it south of the Canadian border. I do not believe the GEM's silly snow maps. We'll see. 500mb pattern was good though. That wonky low is what throws a wrench in the GEM. Those snow maps would be accurate in that pattern. If you are looking for just snow, what the GEM shows hour 180-240 is pretty much gold. Days of wet snow as that low just spins moisture in. Maybe not arctic but its a very cold maritime airmass which would produce sticking snow to sea level. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 GFS at hour 216 GEM at hour 2016 Now if we can just blend the two. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 The ICON is a bit of a blend. Cold trough Sunday/Monday then a low with overrunning likely headed toward a N/OR SW/WA landfall with maritime polar air coming in behind it. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 Had a low of 23 again this morning, sitting at 29 now. I'm afraid the Euro is going to come right out of Fido's butt. Hope I'm wrong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 Hard to believe with both the GFS and GEM looking so good that the Euro will stick to what the 00z run showed. 12Z ECMWF has to shift back. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 Terrific 12z GFS and GEM runs this morning. It's time for the EURO to give us its coldest and snowiest run to date! Come on EURO, please bring it to us! ❄❄❄ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 Looks like the UKmet digs in the trough a little more favourably Sunday/ Monday on the 12z. I would be surprised if the euro didn’t follow to some extent. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 Not going to happen but fun to look at. Would be happy with half that. GFS 1 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 So far I am seeing slight improvements in the GEFS. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 Would be happy with half that. GFS The GEM snow map is not ludicrous given the pattern it shows after hour 180. This would be total snowfall too...With daytime highs probably at least into the mid-30s there would be melting too. Its not like lowland locations would have 8-10" snow depths... 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 So far I am seeing slight improvements in the GEFS.850mb ensemble means for MondayVancouver -11CSeattle. -10cPortland -8C. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 Hour 300 of the GEFS 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 850mb ensemble means for MondayVancouver -11CSeattle. -10cPortland -8C. Pretty good improvement as the 06z mean was actually a bit higher around -5.5C for PDX. The previous best ensemble suite was the 00z with about -7C. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 EPIC?! 4 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 Just keeps going... 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 GFS at hour 216 GEM at hour 2016 Now if we can just blend the two.ONLY 84 days out per the GEM (I assume that's a typo on your part?) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 Ensembles are outstanding! Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 Wow this is looking like a regional event Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
van city Posted February 13, 2018 Report Share Posted February 13, 2018 Ensembles are outstanding!I feel better now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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