MikeInEverett Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 Euro further west.. Quote (Previous name: MillCreekMike) Everett, WA (elev. 180’) 2023-2024 Snowfall: 1/11: Tr. 1/18: Tr. Go M’s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 More like a colder version of shuffleboard. #IwatchtheolympicssometimesI have competed against some of the curlers at the olympics. They’re pretty good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 16, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 I have competed against some of the curlers at the olympics. They’re pretty good.I watched for like an hour last night and had absolutely no clue when anyone did anything worth cheering about. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 Mikaela Shiffrin is about the sexiest thing I have ever seen... Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 Euro 00z is warm on Sunday with temperatures in the lower 40s in the lowlands. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 Not liking the way a lot of the models are trending to stall out the Arctic front over the Lower Mainland / Central Vancouver Island. The ECMWF has followed suite tonight. Looks like a large dump of snow across East Vancouver island and very short lived blast of light snow everywhere to the south. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 Total snow through 4 p.m. on Sunday... Temperatures at 4 p.m. on Sunday... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 Total snow through 4 p.m. on Sunday... Temperatures at 4 p.m. on Sunday... Snow totals improved. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 I watched for like an hour last night and had absolutely no clue when anyone did anything worth cheering about.Closest to the middle wins, basically. Long games though. ~3hrs. A lot of strategy. Like chess on ice. I’m watching the Canadian women play right now. They are struggling. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 Euro 00z is warm on Sunday with temperatures in the lower 40s in the lowlands.Event...cancelled. Well now at least we can look forward to summer BBQ’s and jetsking without worrying about those pesky cold snaps! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 It’s serious business up here. I think there’s more curlers in Canada than the rest of the world combined. If you don’t know anything about the sport, it kind of looks ridiculous.I could get into it. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 ECMWF 00z Max Temp on Sunday: http://i66.tinypic.com/2ceja69.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 Well hopefully it's s bad run, still shows snow though Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 Total snow through 4 p.m. on Sunday... Temperatures at 4 p.m. on Sunday... Tillamook kicks a**. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 750 PM PST Thu Feb 15 2018 .SYNOPSIS...A weather system will arrive tonight and Friday bringing a return to widespread rainfall. A much stronger system will reach the area Friday night and Saturday resulting in breezy conditions in addition to more rain. Cold air will push into the region Sunday with the snow level falling to sea level. Dry conditions are expected for the first part of next week. && .SHORT TERM...Starting to see some showers develop along the coast in advance of the approaching system progged for overnight tonight and the bulk of the day Friday. Snowfall in the Cascades continues to look to fit into winter wx advisory thresholds and as such...inherited headline looks to be on track. Models remain consistent that the more impressive system will be the follow-up expected to reach W WA very late Friday night and Saturday. Current model data suggests that gradients may be tight enough to produce widespread breezy to windy conditions as well as warrant wind advisory headlines in some locations. Will likely address the need for that headline with the early morning forecast package issuance. Another factor that will need to be considered will be heavy snowfall up in the Cascades. Snow levels with this storm look to remain in the 2000-3000 ft range for much of the event...not quite cold enough for concerns in the lowlands...yet. But as the cold front associated with this system passes through...snow levels are expected to plunge hard by Sunday morning...going from that 2000- 3000 range to only a few hundred feet. And that will segue nicely into the Long Term discussion below. Current forecast looks to be in good shape and as such no evening updates are anticipated. SMR .LONG TERM...From Previous Discussion...Cold air aloft will arrive Sunday and Fraser outflow will develop--pushing a modified arctic front south through Western Washington during the day on Sunday. As mentioned above, that could occur as early as Saturday night but will probably be Sunday morning--perhaps around daybreak for the Seattle metro area. There should be some snow showers for the lowlands, especially along the arctic boundary that pushes south but it is too far out to pin down details like timing or accumulations. The UW WRFGFS suggests the Port Angeles area could do quite well for snowfall Saturday night and Sunday morning while the Seattle metro area only gets perhaps an inch--and mainly in the south around Tacoma. The GEFS ensemble mean has been hovering around two inches of snow for Sea-Tac--but is still too early to say, the models could change quite a bit. Looking at the 500mb height change forecast has 280m falls with the upper trough reaching Vancouver Island Saturday morning--but height rises behind the system over Western Canada are not strong--and the absence of strong height rises over the Yukon and B.C. on Sunday mean that this is not the canonical perfect storm like a November `85 type of event: The strong shortwave trough pulls in the cold air aloft behind it--but it isn`t forced down by a strengthening arctic high. Looking at sea level pressure falls under the second round of more modest height falls: On the 12z GFS there is a small area of -2mb/3hr pressure falls along the modified arctic front which tracks from the north Washington coast 12z Sunday and then across the south part of the Olympic Peninsula around 15z--after that it fades over southwest Washington around 18z. That is a pretty modest system--but it is exactly what you want to watch--development on the modified arctic front itself. Later shifts can start to tease out the chance for some snow behind the main front Saturday night versus the chance of lowland snow with the modified arctic front. Fwiw, it is traditional to say `modified arctic front` rather than `cold winter continental Canadian air`, but obviously this isn`t true arctic air and lows that will probably dip into the teens by Monday night outside of the city is hardly arctic...but it is awfully cold compared to what we have seen so far this winter. On Monday, gradients relax awfully fast with the Fraser outflow piddling out quickly--but 850mb temps will remain cold around -13C Sunday night through Monday night: The coldest min temps of the winter sure seem like a good bet. Sunday night wont be the coldest night--except for wind chill, with breezy cold winds, but after the gradients relax Monday then Monday night should be the coldest night with light winds under cold dry air aloft. If there is any snow on the ground in the lowlands that could help get outlying areas drop below the current forecasts Monday night. Dry northerly flow aloft will prevail through Wednesday. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 Also looks better for my area...and people are taking about bad trends...not for me! We had our share of events that stalled out in that area last winter, didn't work out well for either of our areas. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomas Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 Trump Build That Wall.jpg 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 16, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 750 PM PST Thu Feb 15 2018 .SYNOPSIS...A weather system will arrive tonight and Friday bringing a return to widespread rainfall. A much stronger system will reach the area Friday night and Saturday resulting in breezy conditions in addition to more rain. Cold air will push into the region Sunday with the snow level falling to sea level. Dry conditions are expected for the first part of next week. && .SHORT TERM...Starting to see some showers develop along the coast in advance of the approaching system progged for overnight tonight and the bulk of the day Friday. Snowfall in the Cascades continues to look to fit into winter wx advisory thresholds and as such...inherited headline looks to be on track. Models remain consistent that the more impressive system will be the follow-up expected to reach W WA very late Friday night and Saturday. Current model data suggests that gradients may be tight enough to produce widespread breezy to windy conditions as well as warrant wind advisory headlines in some locations. Will likely address the need for that headline with the early morning forecast package issuance. Another factor that will need to be considered will be heavy snowfall up in the Cascades. Snow levels with this storm look to remain in the 2000-3000 ft range for much of the event...not quite cold enough for concerns in the lowlands...yet. But as the cold front associated with this system passes through...snow levels are expected to plunge hard by Sunday morning...going from that 2000- 3000 range to only a few hundred feet. And that will segue nicely into the Long Term discussion below. Current forecast looks to be in good shape and as such no evening updates are anticipated. SMR .LONG TERM...From Previous Discussion...Cold air aloft will arrive Sunday and Fraser outflow will develop--pushing a modified arctic front south through Western Washington during the day on Sunday. As mentioned above, that could occur as early as Saturday night but will probably be Sunday morning--perhaps around daybreak for the Seattle metro area. There should be some snow showers for the lowlands, especially along the arctic boundary that pushes south but it is too far out to pin down details like timing or accumulations. The UW WRFGFS suggests the Port Angeles area could do quite well for snowfall Saturday night and Sunday morning while the Seattle metro area only gets perhaps an inch--and mainly in the south around Tacoma. The GEFS ensemble mean has been hovering around two inches of snow for Sea-Tac--but is still too early to say, the models could change quite a bit. Looking at the 500mb height change forecast has 280m falls with the upper trough reaching Vancouver Island Saturday morning--but height rises behind the system over Western Canada are not strong--and the absence of strong height rises over the Yukon and B.C. on Sunday mean that this is not the canonical perfect storm like a November `85 type of event: The strong shortwave trough pulls in the cold air aloft behind it--but it isn`t forced down by a strengthening arctic high. Looking at sea level pressure falls under the second round of more modest height falls: On the 12z GFS there is a small area of -2mb/3hr pressure falls along the modified arctic front which tracks from the north Washington coast 12z Sunday and then across the south part of the Olympic Peninsula around 15z--after that it fades over southwest Washington around 18z. That is a pretty modest system--but it is exactly what you want to watch--development on the modified arctic front itself. Later shifts can start to tease out the chance for some snow behind the main front Saturday night versus the chance of lowland snow with the modified arctic front. Fwiw, it is traditional to say `modified arctic front` rather than `cold winter continental Canadian air`, but obviously this isn`t true arctic air and lows that will probably dip into the teens by Monday night outside of the city is hardly arctic...but it is awfully cold compared to what we have seen so far this winter. On Monday, gradients relax awfully fast with the Fraser outflow piddling out quickly--but 850mb temps will remain cold around -13C Sunday night through Monday night: The coldest min temps of the winter sure seem like a good bet. Sunday night wont be the coldest night--except for wind chill, with breezy cold winds, but after the gradients relax Monday then Monday night should be the coldest night with light winds under cold dry air aloft. If there is any snow on the ground in the lowlands that could help get outlying areas drop below the current forecasts Monday night. Dry northerly flow aloft will prevail through Wednesday.Jim did NOT write this. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 ECMWF 00z Max Temp on Sunday: http://i66.tinypic.com/2ceja69.pngThose highs occur Sunday morning. The Euro still has temperatures mainly in the mid 30's by the afternoon and the airmass is plenty cold enough for precip to fall as snow. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 End of the month shaping up to be pretty interesting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 Those highs occur Sunday morning. The Euro still has temperatures mainly in the mid 30's by the afternoon and the airmass is plenty cold enough for precip to fall as snow.Temps at 1pm still in the lower 40s in the Seattle metro area. Seems marginal at best with 925mb temps ranging from -2C to -3C. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 End of the month shaping up to be pretty interesting.What link are you using to view the Euro? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 What link are you using to view the Euro? It is out on tidbits Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 What link are you using to view the Euro? It's all loaded on pivotal weather. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 16, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 A few major changes and this could be a spitting image of 2-12-95. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 Temps at 1pm still in the lower 40s in the Seattle metro area. Seems marginal at best with 925mb temps ranging from -2C to -3C. Those 925mb temps are certainly cold enough to get the job done. Temps will quickly wet bulb down to freezing in the Sound with any precip at that point. Precip type won't be an issue, precip availability may be. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 Those 925mb temps are certainly cold enough to get the job done. Temps will quickly wet bulb down to freezing in the Sound with any precip at that point. Precip type won't be an issue, precip availability may be.Definitely. I suppose it's possible temperatures will bump up again to near 40 Sunday afternoon if the front moves South quicker than modeled and the sun comes out early in the day, but any precipitation with 925mb temps below -2 will be sticking snow. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 Those 925mb temps are certainly cold enough to get the job done. Temps will quickly wet bulb down to freezing in the Sound with any precip at that point. Precip type won't be an issue, precip availability may be.I wouldn't say that considering there's a lot of room between the surface (sea level) and 925mb (2300 ft) to result in complete melting. Having a Skew-T from the ECMWF would be helpful. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 I wouldn't say that considering there's a lot of room between the surface (sea level) and 925mb (2300 ft) to result in complete melting. Having a Skew-T from the ECMWF would be helpful. A -2c or -3c airmass at 925mb is sufficiently cold enough for sticking snow at sea level here in nearly all cases, and in this case in particular there's no question that the air with the front will provide the necessary support. The wet bulb temperatures will be below freezing at the surface ahead of the front. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brennan Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 I'm just bummed this initial low doesn't swing in to the south of us for a November 26th 2006/January 2012 repeat. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 A -2c or -3c airmass at 925mb is sufficiently cold enough for sticking snow at sea level here in nearly all cases, and in this case in particular there's no question that the air with the front will provide the necessary support. The wet bulb temperatures will be below freezing at the surface ahead of the front.I disagree. This seems marginal at sea level if the temperatures below 925mb are not freezing in the majority of the layer, especially when you consider the potential for mixing with the 18-24mph winds off the water the ECMWF is showing. I would go with mixed precip ending as snow based on the ECMWF temps and precip. Snow will be hard to stick if ground temperatures are in the upper 30s to lower 40s in the absence of heavy precipitation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brennan Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 6z is sharper and a little further west with the trough mid-late next week. Snow. Trend to watch for... More amplification... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow maniac Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 Much better for my area.Much better for my area.Sure tired of every single snow map showing my area in the no snow area. It will be interesting how wrong they are.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Farmboy Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 Sure tired of every single snow map showing my area in the no snow area. It will be interesting how wrong they are..What area is that? Quote "Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow maniac Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 What area is that?Mason Lk, between Shelton and Belfair, seems to always have this area in the dry slot, not sure why as it is usually wrong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 I was looking at November 2014 which was a very poor mans version of the pattern coming up and Seattle had afternoon temps in the low 30s on the day of the Arctic outbreak. Low temps later went on to go well below 20 in many places. I this case the 850s will be much colder, the surface gradients considerably stronger, and the cold air mass much deeper. The cold is being underestimated with this as it often is with Fraser River events. I still say the Central Puget Sound will get snow as is normal with Fraser outflow events. I've seen the models show nothing (and be wrong) way too many times to believe it. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted February 16, 2018 Report Share Posted February 16, 2018 0803B6A8-F8EA-4483-B50D-9C585B974345.pngWhen does most of this fall? Sunday morning? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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