February Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Front Ranger]

If it makes you feel better, I’ve flipped over to sleet.

 

And it will be 75*F again in a few days.

 

Don't fall for Jesse's silliness. I'm trolling you for fun, just as I trolled Tim for fun about Hawaii.

 

I'm not actually rooting against you or DCA (well maybe DCA a little, but it's more that I'm rooting for SEA/PDX to beat them again). 

[Perturbed Member]

I don't think the surface low track is all that important. At this point we're depending on overcoming what will be strong shadowing and mid levels that will be drying pretty rapidly through the afternoon.

 

I would have thought the track of the low could help a small amount with the shadowing?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

PDX spiking to 55 has been pretty heartbreaking. They might even tack on a few more degrees...

Are you serious? Today was never going to be cold.

[BLI snowman]

18z is better for midweek.

[Jesse]

I feel like these posts go together quite well.

Let those feelings be your guide.

[Perturbed Member]

18z GFS taking some small but clear steps towards the EURO.

 

Tuesday low is further east and much closer to us.

 

 

Wednesday low looks further west and a bit more like the euro

 

 

This includes all of the snow from now to Thursday

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018021718/144/sn10_acc.us_nw.png

 

 

A significant improvement and much more euro like.

[Front Ranger]

Are you serious? Today was never going to be cold.

 

I really hope tomorrow's midnight high in the low/mid 40s at PDX doesn't break any hearts.

[Deweydog]

I would have thought the track of the low could help a small amount with the shadowing?

It might help a bit. We'd be better off of course if it had some actual jet support and tracked further west where we could get into some decent diffluence.

[Front Ranger]

Let those feelings be your guide.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8jcmuodq22E

[Phil]

Don't fall for Jesse's silliness. I'm trolling you for fun, just as I trolled Tim for fun about Hawaii.

 

I'm not actually rooting against you or DCA (well maybe DCA a little, but it's more that I'm rooting for SEA/PDX to beat them again).

Haha, it’s all good man. Honestly, I want DCA to be a low outlier. It puts public pressure on LWX to move the station..they almost pulled the trigger after the infamous screw-up in 2016, but it wasn’t quite enough. I live just inside the beltway, and my climate actually matches that of Dulles. It’s hilarious.

 

And yeah, if we get whiffed in March, there’s definitely a good chance SEA finishes with a higher total. But I’m really feeling (ie: hoping for) a solid 6”+ event during the first half of next month. This year kinda has all the hallmarks you’d expect for it.

[Deweydog]

I really hope tomorrow's midnight high in the low/mid 40s at PDX doesn't break any hearts.

I knew I should have cranked that ***** up...

[Blizzard777]

My weather machine is giving me a snowflake so I guess I’m getting snow!

No, it isn’t 77 in my house either...lol, need to calibrate that someday but someday just hasn’t got here yet

[Jbolin]

Strong winds with blazing sunshine.

 

Nice weather for the day before the day!

After tomorrow!

[Deweydog]

468dm heights at 192.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

18z is better for midweek.

Much better.

[Perturbed Member]

Much better.

 

The euro has been fairly locked on for the midweek setup and things are mostly trending towards it. I expect the 00z GEM will come around too since it was an outlier relative to its own ensembles for the track of that system. 

 

King euro will win this.

[Front Ranger]

I knew I should have cranked that ***** up...

 

I'm feeling pretty good about Sun/Mon, not so much Tue/Wed.

[wxmet]

FWIW, the 12z UW-WRF and NAM 3km yesterday did a good job picking up on the convergence band that's currently over Everett. Both models show the potential for PGCZ tomorrow. 

[Jesse]

468dm heights at 192.

 

Hoping to see this mentioned in Whitehorse's afternoon forecast discussion.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I really hope tomorrow's midnight high in the low/mid 40s at PDX doesn't break any hearts.

I'd be shocked if the peak-heating and sun angle tomorrow doesn't get things warmer than 40 for most of the valley. It'll still be really cold at night though.

[Deweydog]

Hoping to see this mentioned in Whitehorse's afternoon forecast discussion.

No changes. Previous discussion follows...

[Front Ranger]

I'd be shocked if the peak-heating and sun angle tomorrow isn't warmer than 40 for most of the valley. It'll still be really cold at night though.

 

I'd be shocked if PDX sees an afternoon high tomorrow. 

 

Really anyone, but I suppose it could happen for EUG.

[Deweydog]

I'd be shocked if PDX sees an afternoon high tomorrow.

 

Really anyone, but I suppose it could happen for EUG.

If they're still sitting at 45 at midnight, definitely. 42-43 tomorrow afternoon seems plausible though at the top end. They need a nice band of showers to come through late this evening to help level the playing field.

[seattleweatherguy]

468dm heights at 192.

Wow!

[Jesse]

If they're still sitting at 45 at midnight, definitely. 42-43 tomorrow afternoon seems plausible though at the top end. They need a nice band of showers to come through late this evening to help level the playing field.

 

I don't have much trouble picturing them down in the low 40s by midnight.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

WWA posted for the valley

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Things have ended up a lot warmer than expected in a lot of areas today. Currently nearly 50F in Nanaimo, that area is predicted to receive some of the highest snow totals tonight. Still looks about as cold as expected in the BC interior. This is setting up for some sharp temperature gradients.

[Front Ranger]

If they're still sitting at 45 at midnight, definitely. 42-43 tomorrow afternoon seems plausible though at the top end. They need a nice band of showers to come through late this evening to help level the playing field.

 

This scenario would certainly help out your forecast.

 

Anything is possible tomorrow! Including flash freezes...

[Deweydog]

I don't have much trouble picturing them down in the low 40s by midnight.

Sans any decent showers between now and midnight I could see them hung up in the mid 40's. Any decent precip will help with what is moderately strong advection the next 12 hours or so.

[Perturbed Member]

http://www.weather.gov/images/pqr/WxStory/WeatherStory1.png?0555d465e82584f989c679114dc0c006

[Deweydog]

This scenario would certainly help out your forecast.

 

Anything is possible tomorrow! Including flash freezes...

And flash dances.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wow the 18z is a cold run

[FroYoBro]

My friends down in Ashland will probably get a nice little snow event. 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

http://www.weather.gov/images/pqr/WxStory/WeatherStory1.png?0555d465e82584f989c679114dc0c006

 

"Best Case"  - I'm sure some would disagree

[Front Ranger]

Things have ended up a lot warmer than expected in a lot of areas today. Currently nearly 50F in Nanaimo, that area is predicted to receive some of the highest snow totals tonight. Still looks about as cold as expected in the BC interior. This is setting up for some sharp temperature gradients.

 

Yeah, this will be fun to watch tomorrow. Could see some hours where BLI is 10+ degrees colder than SEA, OLM is 10+ degrees colder than PDX, etc.

[Front Ranger]

And flash dances.

 

Wouldn't be surprised to see some weenies break out into flash mobs.

[Deweydog]

Wow the 18z is a cold run

Good lord...

[ShawniganLake]

Day 10-15 on the EPS.

 

[Deweydog]

Wouldn't be surprised to see some weenies break out into flash mobs.

[Jesse]

Sans any decent showers between now and midnight I could see them hung up in the mid 40's. Any decent precip will help with what is moderately strong advection the next 12 hours or so.

That’s a good point. With the amount of clearing offshore and thicknesses falling through the 530s this evening I could envision a midnight temp of 41-42 even without a precip assist, though.