February Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Well I do declare...

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Cold calm evening. 

 

[ShawniganLake]

Well I do declare...

 

I’m not even sure what to expect if something like that verified. Doesn’t look overly cold or active. Cool showery pattern I guess.

[Winterdog]

Temp going up fairly rapidly here was 23F now 26F.  I hate Oregon.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I’m not even sure what to expect if something like that verified. Doesn’t look overly cold or active. Cool showery pattern I guess.

 

I just looked at the GFS, its actually similar...

[wx_statman]

True, but our climate's incessant tendency to be mucky and wet should actually work in our favor this time. Would be nice to see things clear out one of these nights but I'll take the snow.

 

Plus I feel decent about a pretty cold high here tomorrow. Precip looks to move in just after 10am, pretty favorable for a mid 30s cap.

 

Tomorrow could be a 1957/1993 type deal. Mid 30's definitely possible with snow moving in. 

[wxmet]

Radar out of Langley showing showers offshore. Hard to say whether any of that is hitting the surface. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Some other mesoscale models on tropical tidbits. 00z WRF-ARW, WRF-ARW2 and WRF-NMM. The mesoscale models like the RGEM and HRDPS tend to do much better with deformation bands in situations like this.

 

[wx_statman]

-16 in Kalispell, MT just before midnight local time. Broke a low-hanging fruit -6 from 2006. More impressively, this is their coldest reading so late in the winter since March 1969. 

 

This follows -36 in Havre back on the 12th, their coldest reading so late since February 1936.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Boy the models are all over the place. This feels like a close game in the 4th. Hope Blair Walsh isn't the kicker!

[BLI snowman]

Minus the trajectory, tomorrow feels like a total 2016-17 flashback.

 

2/20 smells an awful lot like 1/10.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Easy to pick out the places that got snow on today's satellite.

 

 

Last weekend for reference:

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Boy the models are all over the place. This feels like a close game in the 4th. Hope Blair Walsh isn't the kicker!

Staying up for the night shift?

[wx_statman]

Some impressive temps in E. Oregon. A lot of the high mountain valleys like Meacham and Ukiah are already below 0 with single digits showing up in the Wallowa, Baker, and upper John Day valleys. 

 

-9 in Coeur d'Alene before midnight. About as cold as they ever get this late in the season.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Staying up for the night shift?

Yup

[Front Ranger]

I sincerely hope you can move soon... life is too short to not be happy.

True. But honestly, few people are happy because of where they live.

[Jbolin]

True. But honestly, few people are happy because of where they live.

I hear Boulder rarely gets shadowed? How's the housing market there?

[Front Ranger]

I hear Boulder rarely gets shadowed? How's the housing market there?

Boulder gets a lot of snow. It's also the most expensive place on the Front Range... like $700k+ for a decent single family home.

 

And I guarantee there are plenty of unhappy people there. I work with some of them.

[Jbolin]

Boulder gets a lot of snow. It's also the most expensive place on the Front Range... like $700k+ for a decent single family home.

 

And I guarantee there are plenty of unhappy people there. I work with some of them.

Thats doable for my gf and I, might have to do some research. What about Evergreen? Any recommendations?

[wx_statman]

40/30 at PDX. The failure at the surface continues.

[Jesse]

40/30 at PDX. The failure at the surface continues.

Not at all reflective of the -11c 850mb temps and 515dm thicknesses we had at points today. I guess that’s just how it goes sometimes.

[wx_statman]

Not at all reflective of the -11c 850mb temps and 515dm thicknesses we had at points today. I guess that’s just how it goes sometimes.

 

Brings back memories of Feb. 2006 with the surface details just not lining up. So tough for things to line up just right by this point in the season.

 

It's currently 33 in Sacramento, dp of 22 with NW @ 9 mph. Eureka is at 31. This is certainly an impressive trough. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

One day we will get an epic trough like this in Dec or Jan.

[Perturbed Member]

06z NAM sets up the baroclinic band pretty close to PDX metro. Nothing like the euro. I guess we will not have model agreement going into this.

 

[ShawniganLake]

Wednesday’s little system is looking more impressive on the 6Z.

[Deweydog]

The NAM has a 2-12-95 fetish for Wednesday night.

[Perturbed Member]

Mark is forecasting 1-4 inches of snow for tomorrow for the valley floor. Sound familiar? Same forecast he made for 1/10/2017.

 

1/10/2017 repeat confirmed for tomorrow! 

[Perturbed Member]

06z through 10 AM Thursday

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The NAM has a 2-12-95 fetish for Wednesday night.

I remember that storm well as a kid.

[Perturbed Member]

06z NAM gives 8-10 inch snow totals by Thursday AM.http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018022006/063/sn10_acc.us_nw.png

 

The closest other model is the GEM

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gdps/2018022000/066/sn10_acc.us_nw.png

 

 

Should be interesting to see if ICON or GFS jump onboard about the Wednesday low.

[MikeInEverett]

This is unbelievable

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Mark is forecasting 1-4 inches of snow for tomorrow for the valley floor. Sound familiar? Same forecast he made for 1/10/2017.

 

1/10/2017 repeat confirmed for tomorrow!

Yeah, he just forgot to add a 1 in front of the 4 to get 14 inches haha. The system is coming and going to move in the opposite direction but I can definitively see some localized heavy snow accumulations.

[Perturbed Member]

PDX NWS is thinking about a WSW. Don't do it! 

 

Concern is still high
for the evening commute tomorrow. Onset of the heavier snow and
accumulation will likely occur close to the evening commute. Models
still range anywhere from 3PM to 6PM with the onset of the heavier
precipitation, and these 3 hours will be crucial to the impact for
the evening commute tomorrow. Thought about upgrading to a winter
storm warning for the Portland/Vancouver metro area even if snow
amounts stay below criteria due to the potentially significant
impacts. However, elected not to do anything during this shift as
timing of the onset will hopefully be come more clear in the next 12
to 18 hours.

 

 

They think the band will set up somewhere between PDX and central or even south valley but I guess this was before tonight's euro.

[Brennan]

Half inch for southern whatcom county. Score!

[umadbro]

Light snow falling

[GHweatherChris]

Solid dusting so far this morning.

[Tyler Mode]

Already the tiniest of flakes falling in Battle Ground.

[FroYoBro]

Looks like it is already snowing out west on 26. Should be lightly snowing here soon. 

[Esquimalt]

This is total thru Monday. This site doesn’t break it down into six hour increments the way WB does.

 

 

17FD319A-78F6-4D77-9D79-3780BE81D571.png

Victoria gets ripped off again, as usual.  Totally pathetic. 

[Front Ranger]

Wow, ahead of time. Snow is approaching Olympia as well already.