Tom Posted February 6, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 6, 2018 12z GFS...second piece...plenty of time to see if that energy can phase into something bigger... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 6, 2018 Report Share Posted February 6, 2018 Snow percentage already is at 80% for Thurs thru Fri. That is impressive. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 6, 2018 Report Share Posted February 6, 2018 Canadian has shifted south and is similar to the GFS... favors eastern NE, southern 2/3 Iowa, northern IL. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 6, 2018 Report Share Posted February 6, 2018 OAX has us at 60% for Saturday. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 6, 2018 Report Share Posted February 6, 2018 What did the euro have? Probably not much because it wasn't posted lol. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 6, 2018 Report Share Posted February 6, 2018 What did the euro have? Probably not much because it wasn't posted lol.Euro is just starting to pick up on the main wave. I'm eager to see 12Z. All that stands in the way of a storm is Euro. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted February 6, 2018 Report Share Posted February 6, 2018 OAX has us at 60% for Saturday.snow? sorry at work right now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 6, 2018 Report Share Posted February 6, 2018 snow? sorry at work right nowNo, a 60% chance of a rabid herd of dogs with rabies coming thru Lincoln. 3 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 6, 2018 Report Share Posted February 6, 2018 No, a 60% chance of a rabid herd of dogs with rabies coming thru Lincoln. ROFLMAO! Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 6, 2018 Report Share Posted February 6, 2018 canadian. http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gdps/2018020612/108/snku_acc.us_mw.png 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 6, 2018 Report Share Posted February 6, 2018 why are we looking at the long range NAM?Because it's out there and many times we just want to see some really beefed up numbers. Why would we look at the ICON. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 6, 2018 Report Share Posted February 6, 2018 GFS is extremely bullish on the weekend major snowstorm. Snow for much of the area from Thurs nite through Sun. Dang! Get those snowblowers/shovels ready once again. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 6, 2018 Report Share Posted February 6, 2018 12z UK has come south a bit with the initial wave of precip. http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/P1_GZ_D5_PN_072_0000.gif 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 6, 2018 Report Share Posted February 6, 2018 This was last night's UK. Very strong for Chicago. Similar to today's GFS and Canadian. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted February 6, 2018 Report Share Posted February 6, 2018 When would the first wave begin in eastern Iowa on Thursday? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 6, 2018 Report Share Posted February 6, 2018 Gonna be interesting how offices handle headlines. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 6, 2018 Report Share Posted February 6, 2018 Gonna be interesting how offices handle headlines.OAX will probably issue a watch tomorrow. They issue a watch when someone sneezes. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted February 6, 2018 Report Share Posted February 6, 2018 I'm feeling this one Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 6, 2018 Report Share Posted February 6, 2018 OAX will probably issue a watch tomorrow. They issue a watch when someone sneezes.I don't know though. Duration may only warrant an advisory. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 6, 2018 Report Share Posted February 6, 2018 I don't know though. Duration may only warrant an advisory.If you're joking: They'll issue a Blizzard Warning for Northeast Nebraska and give us nothing. If you're serious: They always issue a watch when a potentially big thing comes then gauge what to issue next after. Actually a smart move tbh. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 6, 2018 Report Share Posted February 6, 2018 This is the UK through only 6am Friday, so not even the heaviest bands yet and still impressive qpf. http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/accum/PA_000-072_0000.gif 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 6, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 6, 2018 12z GEFS about as share the wealth as we have seen all season. Of note, lake enhancement being picked up along the WI/IL border...to see an ensemble spitting out .50-.75 qpf this far out is incredibly juiced, esp the .75-1.00" qpf near the lake. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NH4NU Posted February 6, 2018 Report Share Posted February 6, 2018 With this pattern and current indications, I am feeling oddly confident with 6”+ for eastern Neb this weekend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 6, 2018 Report Share Posted February 6, 2018 12z UK is a bit north of last run for NE/IA, but very robust. Remember, this includes the midweek snow as well. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 6, 2018 Report Share Posted February 6, 2018 12z UK is a bit north of last run for NE/IA, but very robust. UK_12zFeb06.pngyes please. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 6, 2018 Report Share Posted February 6, 2018 IA/IL/NE in a great spot Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 6, 2018 Report Share Posted February 6, 2018 GFS is extremely bullish on the weekend major snowstorm. Snow for much of the area from Thurs nite through Sun. Dang! Get those snowblowers/shovels ready once again. Euro and GEM even better for SWMI Comparison: GFS top, Euro btm GEM 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 6, 2018 Report Share Posted February 6, 2018 Euro and GEM even better for SWMI Comparison: GFS top, Euro btm 20180206 12z GFS n Euro thru weekend.png GEM 20180206 12z GEM thru weekend.pngTake your pick . Gotta like the Euro though....crushes the area. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 6, 2018 Report Share Posted February 6, 2018 Every models drills chitown... this has to be the one right? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted February 6, 2018 Report Share Posted February 6, 2018 Every models drills chitown... this has to be the one right?The Nero Storm. 1 Quote ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 6, 2018 Report Share Posted February 6, 2018 Euro is still aimed farther north with the first significant wave.... from northern Iowa into southern Wisconsin and far northern Illinois. N IL gets through S MI gets nailed. I hope this can sink south to where the other models are . 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted February 6, 2018 Report Share Posted February 6, 2018 Euro needs to play catch up Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted February 6, 2018 Report Share Posted February 6, 2018 What's the euro showing here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 6, 2018 Report Share Posted February 6, 2018 Well the euro was too far north with this last wave, so that might be something to keep in mind. However, I wouldn't count on this mattering much, Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 6, 2018 Report Share Posted February 6, 2018 Well the euro was too far north with this last wave, so that might be something to keep in mind. However, I wouldn't count on this mattering much, I think it will matter quite a bit how far north that first major wave tracks. The southern edge could be sharp. 12z euro total through weekend... 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 6, 2018 Report Share Posted February 6, 2018 I think it will matter quite a bit how far north that first major wave tracks. The southern edge could be sharp. 12z euro total through weekend... euro_12zFeb06.pngAssuming the phase occurs. If it does, then, it will snow hard. Map makes sense for a phase to be taking place. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted February 6, 2018 Report Share Posted February 6, 2018 I think it will matter quite a bit how far north that first major wave tracks. The southern edge could be sharp. 12z euro total through weekend... euro_12zFeb06.pngWhat kind of ratios should we be expecting? Standard or a little higher? Quote ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 6, 2018 Report Share Posted February 6, 2018 John Dee talking 8+ for the first wave Thurs/Thurs night! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 6, 2018 Report Share Posted February 6, 2018 What kind of ratios should we be expecting? Standard or a little higher? I'm guessing they'll be throwing around the 15:1 ratio again. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 6, 2018 Report Share Posted February 6, 2018 Euro is still meh. Further North too. What an a** that model has been to us. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.