Sciascia Posted February 6, 2018 Report Share Posted February 6, 2018 I'm guessing they'll be throwing around the 15:1 ratio again.We shall see. I read a LOT met talking about how yesterday's ORD snow ending up only being 10:1. If we can actually get 15:1 & these models don't budge too much (or even get stronger), a fair lot of us could have some fun this weekend. Quote ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 6, 2018 Report Share Posted February 6, 2018 Ratios statistically have a hard time panning out. However, ratios have been good to us for all but one event this year, and even then they were only down 2-3:1. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 6, 2018 Report Share Posted February 6, 2018 Ratios statistically have a hard time panning out. However, ratios have been good to us for all but one event this year, and even then they were only down 2-3:1.Change the years in your signature. It says 2016-17 still. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted February 6, 2018 Report Share Posted February 6, 2018 I think it will matter quite a bit how far north that first major wave tracks. The southern edge could be sharp. 12z euro total through weekend... euro_12zFeb06.pngWhat time would this snow begin on Thursday in Cedar Rapids? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted February 6, 2018 Report Share Posted February 6, 2018 Lot of consistency for the ChiTown, SWI, Mich areas. starting to get a bit excited 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 6, 2018 Report Share Posted February 6, 2018 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 6, 2018 Report Share Posted February 6, 2018 Accu-weather has my area from Thurs evening to Fri evening for 8-12inches. Sweet! 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianJK Posted February 6, 2018 Report Share Posted February 6, 2018 We shall see. I read a LOT met talking about how yesterday's ORD snow ending up only being 10:1. If we can actually get 15:1 & these models don't budge too much (or even get stronger), a fair lot of us could have some fun this weekend. Yep - that D**n pixie dust doesn't stack up well Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted February 6, 2018 Report Share Posted February 6, 2018 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 6, 2018 Report Share Posted February 6, 2018 Further east GDR? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 6, 2018 Report Share Posted February 6, 2018 What time would this snow begin on Thursday in Cedar Rapids? Current model runs are showing late afternoon Thursday, wherever the band is aimed. The euro is north, so the band doesn't sag down into CR until before sunrise Friday. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 6, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 6, 2018 I just looked at the 12z Euro's wind profiles and they have an easterly flow for 30-36 hours into SE WI/NE IL. About as perfect as it can get on a model run. However, 850's oscillate from the start time roughly -8C and cool towards -12C, then warm again up to -5C, of which, they cool back down past -10C. With that being said, thermals won't be the most ideal but I've seen this type of set up once before in my lifetime and given the cold ground temps, relatively warm and ice free Lake Michigan, this set up should be favorable for Lehs. Woah, just took a glance at the 12z EPS/Control and this is about as locked and loaded for IA/N IL/S WI/N IN/MI as one can ask for. Chitown, this is probably going to mirror something close to the Dec 31st - Jan 2nd, 2014 system. Near perfect pivot of both waves of energy are looking more probable at the moment. It snows for about 24 hours straight with the first wave over N IL/S WI, then another 24 hours for the second! #Mindblown 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 6, 2018 Report Share Posted February 6, 2018 One thing of note regarding the Euro. We've had two very similar clippers this winter, one at the end of December and one yesterday. Both times, right up to the start of the storm, the Euro predicted the center of the heavy band would be through Cedar Rapids. The best snow in December ended up one county south of Cedar Rapids. The best snow yesterday ended up two counties south of Cedar Rapids. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 6, 2018 Report Share Posted February 6, 2018 what's the ratios on those maps? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 6, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 6, 2018 what's the ratios on those maps?10:1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 6, 2018 Report Share Posted February 6, 2018 Wowzers....heres hoping this doesn't sag south anymore, but looks like fun! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 6, 2018 Report Share Posted February 6, 2018 Just need like a 30 mile shift north Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 6, 2018 Report Share Posted February 6, 2018 what's the ratios on those maps? 10:1 Euro's the new NAM this winter Iiuc, this would be Kuchera or some similar algorithm: 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 6, 2018 Report Share Posted February 6, 2018 Just need like a 30 mile shift north Verbatim, I can tolerate a 60 mile shift N or S. This feels a lot like Feb 2015 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 6, 2018 Report Share Posted February 6, 2018 Tom said: "It snows for about 24 hours straight with the first wave over N IL/S WI, then another 24 hours for the second! #Mindblown" Opens the door for GRR to issue 3 days worth of WWA's (awwta cover it, lol) 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 6, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 6, 2018 Euro's the new NAM this winter Iiuc, this would be Kuchera or some similar algorithm: 20180206 12z Euro 120 hr Snow Kuchera.pngThese are the maps I’m used to seeing back in ‘13-‘14 my friend! I like the blip of 16” in Lake county as it gives me a signal the lehs potential is legit. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 6, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 6, 2018 18z NAM...looking juiced with 1st wave as it always seems to be... http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018020618/084/snku_acc.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 6, 2018 Report Share Posted February 6, 2018 18z NAM...looking juiced with 1st wave as it always seems to be... http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018020618/084/snku_acc.us_mw.pngAll models are juiced for this wave. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 6, 2018 Report Share Posted February 6, 2018 Flashbacks of 13-14' are coming back. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 6, 2018 Report Share Posted February 6, 2018 One thing of note regarding the Euro. We've had two very similar clippers this winter, one at the end of December and one yesterday. Both times, right up to the start of the storm, the Euro predicted the center of the heavy band would be through Cedar Rapids. The best snow in December ended up one county south of Cedar Rapids. The best snow yesterday ended up two counties south of Cedar Rapids. 18z NAM...looking juiced with 1st wave as it always seems to be... http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018020618/084/snku_acc.us_mw.png Prolly ends up that the Euro is again just a bit far north (if the NAM is south already), thus an IN Toll Rd special appears to be on tap. Surprised how low-key IWX's afd was about this period.. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 6, 2018 Report Share Posted February 6, 2018 13/14 was all south up this way...as well. Mke is going all south 1-2" with wave one, northern fringe for wave 2 won't give amounts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianJK Posted February 6, 2018 Report Share Posted February 6, 2018 18z NAM...looking juiced with 1st wave as it always seems to be... http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2018020618/084/snku_acc.us_mw.png All models are juiced for this wave. ok ok - IF you can show me similar maps tomorrow - I will get on board. Til then, I'm fully expecting this to find a way to be a non-event for us. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 6, 2018 Report Share Posted February 6, 2018 ICON is really juiced on the 2nd wave for Nebraska through 81 hours. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted February 6, 2018 Report Share Posted February 6, 2018 ok ok - IF you can show me similar maps tomorrow - I will get on board. Til then, I'm fully expecting this to find a way to be a non-event for us. Non event, in what sense? no storm or a freakish shift? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 6, 2018 Report Share Posted February 6, 2018 ok ok - IF you can show me similar maps tomorrow - I will get on board. Til then, I'm fully expecting this to find a way to be a non-event for us.These maps do not apply for Emhurst...sorry. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 6, 2018 Report Share Posted February 6, 2018 Me rikey NAM, thankfully it's always right, so this is basically locked and loaded here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted February 6, 2018 Report Share Posted February 6, 2018 This is all our NWS office says about the upcoming snowfall Thursday night through Saturday. What did that take 20 seconds to write up? An h85 baroclinic thermal boundary sets up Thursday night betweenmild air to the south and much colder air to the north. Look forperiods of light accumulating snow from Thursday night throughFriday with the broadening trough aloft..LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)Issued at 325 PM CST Tue Feb 6 2018Periods of light snow continue into Saturday night. Gradualwarming occurs Sunday and even more so Monday as milder westerlyflow nudges out the Arctic airmass. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 6, 2018 Author Report Share Posted February 6, 2018 ok ok - IF you can show me similar maps tomorrow - I will get on board. Til then, I'm fully expecting this to find a way to be a non-event for us.Sheesh, are you kidding??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 6, 2018 Report Share Posted February 6, 2018 ICON is really juiced on the 2nd wave for Nebraska through 81 hours. Both the 18z NAM and ICON have shifted south from the 12z runs. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 6, 2018 Report Share Posted February 6, 2018 This is all our NWS office says about the upcoming snowfall Thursday night through Saturday. What did that take 20 seconds to write up? An h85 baroclinic thermal boundary sets up Thursday night betweenmild air to the south and much colder air to the north. Look forperiods of light accumulating snow from Thursday night throughFriday with the broadening trough aloft. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)Issued at 325 PM CST Tue Feb 6 2018 Periods of light snow continue into Saturday night. Gradualwarming occurs Sunday and even more so Monday as milder westerlyflow nudges out the Arctic airmass.You didn't even post the name of who did that and I can already tell. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 6, 2018 Report Share Posted February 6, 2018 Both the 18z NAM and ICON have shifted south from the 12z runs. Gfs shifted south also Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 6, 2018 Report Share Posted February 6, 2018 oh well enjoy Il. pretty big jump on the gfs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 6, 2018 Report Share Posted February 6, 2018 ok ok - IF you can show me similar maps tomorrow - I will get on board. Til then, I'm fully expecting this to find a way to be a non-event for us.Geez, what the heck are ya smokin. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 6, 2018 Report Share Posted February 6, 2018 I wouldn't be launching any towels in madison Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 6, 2018 Report Share Posted February 6, 2018 the second wave also seems a lot weaker. Eh, lets wait and see. That was a crappy comment. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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