February 8th-11th Major Snowstorm

[FV-Mike]

I'll bet you a penny that by Monday night; when all is said and done; the Rapid City NWS office measures more snow than Chicago O'Hare  from now until then.

 

So you won't have to take my ruler's word for it.

 

Rapid City NWS WFO might be the only station around here that does worse than me.

Considering that the current forecast for Rapid City is 3-4 inches, that is quite the prognostication

[Tabitha]

Considering that the current forecast for Rapid City is 3-4 inches, that is quite the prognostication

 

My irrationality is well-documented on this forum...

 

However, the universe is, by its very nature irrational; so I am very much in line with it.

[FV-Mike]

Interesting that LOT thinks heaviest snow may sag south

 

once again, most guidance is focusing these features and highest
amounts along/north of I-80 and have maintained this forecast.
However, some guidance does vary with this placement, placing it
further to the south. Given that a large driver of this snow will
be mesoscale in nature, I am concerned there could still be some
variation with the placement of the higher snow axis. As we move
more within the 24 hour time frame of this event, will likely see
confidence grow on placement. Given the pattern/forcing at play,
did feel comfortable increasing totals more into the 6-10 inch
range. It is quite possible that amounts could be slightly higher
in some locations by Friday evening. Outside of the watch, snow
totals do quickly drop off. End time does also get a little tricky
as a fairly active pattern will continue. There should be a break
in the snow Friday night, however, it`s possible additional waves
of snow could be right on the backside of this Thursday
night/Friday snow. With higher confidence of a window of dry
conditions, did leave the end times in place. Saturday through
Saturday night, and possibly Sunday morning, will be additional
periods to monitor for additional accumulating snow.

 

[Jaycee]

Here, I'm going to try:

 

 

 

I will bet the sleep of several fortnights upon thee of the most east longitudes of this forum that a miniscule, yet triumphant storm will reign its might and fury upon thine land of where the powerful Dakota tribes once roamed; in fact; Chicago will be but a dissapointment amongst thee mighty Dakota; as time and time again; Chicago has shown its all but true colors; where they shall remain, littered amongst brown and dying grass.

 

 

How'd I do Tab?

[Minny_Weather]

Oh my GOD that NAM run was horrible for us. Wowzers.

[bud2380]

DVN has issued a Winter Storm Watch for areas along and north of I 80

[jaster220]

GRR's afd has some interesting words, the staffer who wrote it is not on the A-team so take it fwiw

 

The main story will be the developing long duration storm that moves
in toward midnight Thursday night. A sharpening surface boundary
will develop near the MI/IN border. Isentropic upglide will
increase as this boundary tightens and snow will develop north of
the boundary by late evening. The snowfall will get a boost by
daybreak Friday as the right entrance region of the upper jet comes
overhead. Also seeing some FGEN develop in this time frame that
lingers into the afternoon, especially south of I-96. The FGEN
wanes by Friday evening, but upper jet doesn`t move off until late
evening. Meanwhile at the surface, waves of low pressure ripples
along the boundary by Friday evening. These gradually cause the
boundary to sag slowly southeast. With the boundary and upper jet
moving farther away, the snow should ease up into Friday evening.

So all told this will be a 24 to 30 hour event with rather steady
snowfall throughout and occasionally heavy bursts. The snowfall will
be the heaviest south of I-96 where FGEN is most likely, along with
the other forces. Areas between I-96 and Highway 10 should be in the
4 to 7 inch range, and slightly less north of Highway 10. The
amount of snow south of I-96 could bring commerce to halt, including
closings and possible road closures. The areas between I-96 and
Highway 10 will see moderate impacts, with closing also likely. One
good factor to this event will be that the winds will remain light,
generally 5 to 10 mph. Initially from the ESE Thursday evening,
gradually turning to NNE by Friday evening.

 

Says moderate impacts for Hwy 10 way north of GR yet says it may also close?? Huh? Entertaining reads from that office at times. They're very Bi-polar aside from LES

[bud2380]

I'm going to blindly ride the RGEM.

 

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/rdps/2018020718/048/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[CentralNebWeather]

18Z ICON is a pretty good hit for Central, Southern, and Southeast Nebraska with 2nd Wave.  It has been consistent.  We will see if it verifies or not.

[jaster220]

Woohoo!!  My 1st official legit watch in almost 2 yrs, and it's not a low-end shoulda been a WWA deal. My office don't roll that way, lol

 

Winter Storm Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
359 PM EST Wed Feb 7 2018

MIZ065>067-073-074-080500-
/O.NEW.KGRR.WS.A.0001.180209T0400Z-180210T0600Z/
Barry-Eaton-Ingham-Calhoun-Jackson-
Including the cities of Hastings, Charlotte, Lansing,
Battle Creek, and Jackson

359 PM EST Wed Feb 7 2018

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 7 to 10
inches are possible.

* WHERE...Barry, Eaton, Ingham, Calhoun and Jackson counties.

* WHEN...From Thursday evening through late Friday night.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow should move in Thursday evening. Plan
on difficult travel conditions, including during the morning and
evening commute on Friday. Significant reductions in visibility
are possible. Cancellations and roads closures are possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant
snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue
to monitor the latest forecasts.

&&

[Tabitha]

Considering that the current forecast for Rapid City is 3-4 inches, that is quite the prognostication

 

They have actually revised it downwards to 2 -3 inches as of the last update...as the NWS team on duty is well aware of the fact that Rapid City is the Worst Place For Snow.

 

I wrote a post a few days ago about how excellent they have been all season; consistently forecasting minimal accumulations and they have been right virtually every time.

 

They have had an excellent year thus far.

[NEJeremy]

They have actually revised it downwards to 2 -3 inches as of the last update...as the NWS team on duty is well aware of the fact that Rapid City is the Worst Place For Snow.

 

I wrote a post a few days ago about how excellent they have been all season; consistently forecasting minimal accumulations and they have been right virtually every time.

 

They have had an excellent year thus far.

Our NWS has always been low on the totals for this event and it looks like they are going to end up being correct(unfortunately). Afternoon discussion calling for 1-3" total over the 2 waves. Sigh.....

[Stacsh]

Please don't shift 30 miles north.  I'm sick of snow.  

[Sciascia]

GFS south on both wave 1 & 2. Heaviest snow through N IN.

[jaster220]

from IWX's nice little "extra-extra" storm situation report. Just told my director I plan to work from home Friday..

 

 

[jaster220]

GFS south on both wave 1 & 2. Heaviest snow through N IN.

 

South trend's been legit this season too, so wouldn't be a shocker if this somehow follows suit. 

[Tabitha]

Our NWS has always been low on the totals for this event and it looks like they are going to end up being correct(unfortunately). Afternoon discussion calling for 1-3" total over the 2 waves. Sigh.....

 

I would have never moved here last August if I knew what a horrible place for snow this was.

 

I only took it because I was living in a hotel at the time at over $100 a night; and it is not a good idea to burn money.

 

The house is actually quite lovely; and the view is even better.

 

The weather sux, however.

 

I was not acquainted with the intricacies of the local climate at the time; and I have paid dearly for my ignorance on the matter.

 

Fortunately, it was a 1 year lease and I'm out of here over the summer.

 

I will find the snowiest house in the Black Hills; above the 6000' contour if I must.

 

I will never put myself through this absurdity again.

 

 

"Good judgement comes from experience; experience comes from bad judgement."

____Chinese Proverb (or at least, I found it in a Fortune Cookie)

[jaster220]

18z NAM for posterity-second wave approaching from the SW 

 

[Bryan1117]

I'm really not sure why all my fellow Nebraskans(or anyone else) is surprised by the change over the last few days in the models. That's pretty much what happens with every storm, isn't it?

I am so numb from these awful Winters here lately that I really don’t care whether it even snows here anymore after we get through January. February is just a cold depressing month weather wise in the Midwest anyway.

 

Less snow means quicker warmups... Chicago enjoy all of your dirty leftover snow and frigid temps while we warm up quicker out here in Nebraska after our 2-3 inches of powder melts away in a couple days early next week.

[GDR]

Wagons south baby

[Tony]

Looking forward to see the 0z runs as that should have partial sampling.

[Jaycee]

I am so numb from these awful Winters here lately that I really don’t care whether it even snows here anymore after we get through January. February is just a cold depressing month weather wise in the Midwest anyway.

 

Less snow means quicker warmups... Chicago enjoy all of your dirty leftover snow and frigid temps while we warm up quicker out here in Nebraska after our 2-3 inches of powder melts away in a couple days early next week.

 

When even Bryan is salty, you should be able to tell just how bad our winter(s) have been here. That 18z GFS run above is truly unbelievable. Snow all around us. AGAIN. This past storm, same thing. it's freaking ridiculous.

[Tabitha]

Our NWS has always been low on the totals for this event and it looks like they are going to end up being correct(unfortunately). Afternoon discussion calling for 1-3" total over the 2 waves. Sigh.....

 

 

The only thing that can salvage the winter here is the fact that it DOES get much wetter each passing day through April; and mid-February through the end of the month, March, and April are pretty snowy; even in this Snow Hole.

 

February is more than 150% wetter than January; March is more than 200% wetter than January.

 

Climatology is a little in my favor as the days go by.

 

A good last 12 weeks; and it will not be a Complete Disaster...just 90%.

[NEJeremy]

I would have never moved here last August if I knew what a horrible place for snow this was.

 

I only took it because I was living in a hotel at the time at over $100 a night; and it is not a good idea to burn money.

 

The house is actually quite lovely; and the view is even better.

 

The weather sux, however.

 

I was not acquainted with the intricacies of the local climate at the time; and I have paid dearly for my ignorance on the matter.

 

Fortunately, it was a 1 year lease and I'm out of here over the summer.

 

I will find the snowiest house in the Black Hills; above the 6000' contour if I must.

 

I will never put myself through this absurdity again.

 

 

"Good judgement comes from experience; experience comes from bad judgement."

____Chinese Proverb (or at least, I found it in a Fortune Cookie)

My mom and one of her old high school friends were going to head out to Lead this weekend for my mom's 60th birthday, but they've scrapped their plans due to the snowfall. Maybe they should still try it anyway and hope for the failures to continue I'm kidding of course, I'd rather have my mom playing it safe!

[Tabitha]

My mom and one of her old high school friends were going to head out to Lead this weekend for my mom's 60th birthday, but they've scrapped their plans due to the snowfall. Maybe they should still try it anyway and hope for the failures to continue I'm kidding of course, I'd rather have my mom playing it safe!

 

Lead is near 48 inches on the season.  Since their average is around 160; they also have a long way to go.

 

However they see measurable snow every May...and in many Junes...so they have time.

 

Lead's April average is 24.6" of snow and their May average is 7.0".

[Hawkeye]

18z ICON actually went back north with the first wave... drops only 0.15-0.20" down hw30 in Iowa.  I sure hope this forked tongue scenario doesn't pan out.

 

[Tony]

18z ICON actually went back north with the first wave... drops only 0.15-0.20" down hw30 in Iowa.  I sure hope this forked tongue scenario doesn't pan out.

 

Don't know much about this model nor it's performance

[hlcater]

Don't know much about this model nor it's performance

It's fair, not great but not terrible, seems to wobble a lot. I'd put it just below the CMC in terms of performance.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

18z ICON actually went back north with the first wave... drops only 0.15-0.20" down hw30 in Iowa.  I sure hope this forked tongue scenario doesn't pan out.

 

Its the devils pitch fork look.

[Hawkeye]

Don't know much about this model nor it's performance

 

The forked tongue precip map is quite similar to what this morning's Euro showed.

[bud2380]

18z GGEM

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_18/pan_P2_GZ_D5_PN_048_0000.gif

[WBadgersW]

MKE calling for 3-5" up here. We'll see...

[Madtown]

[WBadgersW]

King NAM and the GGEM are with us? We are golden then!

[jethrobodean]

Tabitha,  Leaving tomorrow with a group of 8 to snowmobile the hills, whats the locals saying for snow in Deadwood/Lead area?

And if your not doing nothing, Its Mardi Gras in Deadwood this weekend!

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Anyone have total precip from the 18z ggem?

[Hawkeye]

I have no idea what its record is, but the 18z HRRRx, which goes out 36 hours, has the snow band in southern Minnesota into far northern Iowa and southern Wisconsin.

[james1976]

DMX going 4-6 for my area with a WWA. Mentioned the possibility of Winter Storm Warning for the northeast CWA (my area) if we can get 6+. Definitely liking how this looks.
​Also there is a an area of fluff moving through tonight in advance that is forecast to drop a bonus 1/2 inch.

[gosaints]

Pretty solid sampling here at 0z

[Madtown]

hrrr nailed this past Sat/sun here I believe