Madtown Posted April 20, 2018 Report Share Posted April 20, 2018 Bout time Spring! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted April 20, 2018 Report Share Posted April 20, 2018 Let's green this place up a bit! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted April 20, 2018 Report Share Posted April 20, 2018 Let's green this place up a bit! No kidding! This was a year ago down my way.. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted April 20, 2018 Report Share Posted April 20, 2018 All readings are for Grand Rapids, MIWill we see our first 70° next week? Over the last 40 years the average first 70° is March 30th In the time there have only been 3 years when the first 70° day came after April 20th (today’s date) they are 4/27/2013 when the high reached 71° and the next 3 days came in at 64°,73° and 78° in 1984 the first date was not until 4/26 when the high reach 83° with highs reaching 78 and 70 after that. And in 1993 when the first date was April 24th when the high reach 73° a reading of 71 came a few days later. Going back further for 70 years the average first 70° day is April 2nd Since 1948 the years that did not reach 70 on or before April 20th are 1. 1950 May 3rd 2. 1951 April 30th 3. 1970 April 25th 4. 1975 April 29th 5. 1984 April 26th 6. 1993 April 24th 7. 2013 April 27th so in the last 70 years there have only been 7 Aprils that did not reach 70° or more by today. Note that May 3rd 1950 is the latest first 70° day in Grand Rapids history. The last time it has been 70 or better here in Grand Rapids was October 22 last year. Sad. How did GR miss hitting 70F on the 12th Marshall hit 73F that afternoon. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted April 20, 2018 Report Share Posted April 20, 2018 Snowpack def taking a beating today Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 20, 2018 Author Report Share Posted April 20, 2018 Well, that was quick, today's 12z ensemble guidance is deciding to put a quick end to the warm up by Thu of next week near the MW/GL's region. I was just outside for 2 hours soaking up the sunshine without any breezes and it felt amazing. The wind off the lake was blocked my house while I was in the back yard. The grass is certainly starting to green pretty quick actually. I really think this will be a slow "step ladder" run up into summer. Any sudden summer patterns should fair better out in the Plains as we roll into May. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted April 20, 2018 Report Share Posted April 20, 2018 Sad. How did GR miss hitting 70F on the 12th Marshall hit 73F that afternoon. On the 12th the wind went from SE to S to SSW to W as a dry cold front came thru 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted April 20, 2018 Report Share Posted April 20, 2018 48 the last 2 days feels glorious snowpack close to gone... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted April 21, 2018 Report Share Posted April 21, 2018 No kidding! This was a year ago down my way.. SMI 4-18-17.png 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted April 21, 2018 Report Share Posted April 21, 2018 Going to have a chance at a tornado free April in Oklahoma. First time I have ever known it to be too cold for tornadoes in the month of April. Edit:I guess Tom already had that covered. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted April 21, 2018 Report Share Posted April 21, 2018 According to the euro, looks like May should be cool and wet also. Still a lot of bare trees around here also. Unusual for sure. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 21, 2018 Author Report Share Posted April 21, 2018 According to the euro, looks like May should be cool and wet also. Still a lot of bare trees around here also. Unusual for sure.That's really odd to hear you still have bare trees in your neck of the woods. Over here, 100% of the trees are still bare, although, during the "brief" 2-day warm spell (11th-12th) , trees did try to bud but then the cold snap came and hit them hard. We're going to need a stretch of warm and sunny days and hopefully by early next week the process of growth can occur. It's rather depressing having to look at "skeletons" throughout the neighborhood! This is my first Spring in many years (6), where I have not gone to AZ yet. Work and family stuff has kept me in Chicago but I'm hopeful to take a break very soon. Experiencing this type of weather just validates why Spring's in the SW are a blessing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 21, 2018 Author Report Share Posted April 21, 2018 Both EPS/GEFS are suggesting a stout -EPO pattern to close out April and open May. Fits the LRC quite well, but is there a rebound during the Week 2 period? I have been looking for a warm spell during the early part of May and the models are seeing it but primarily out in the Plains and not so much farther east. Transient warm spells are in the cards across the MW/GL's with more consistent warmth out in the central/southern Plains. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 21, 2018 Author Report Share Posted April 21, 2018 This is an interesting study that was conducted during last years Canadian wildfire season. A lot of similarities in the wx pattern this season argue that we will see another bad fire season up north. https://www.facebook.com/TomSkilling/posts/10156196556436760 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 22, 2018 Author Report Share Posted April 22, 2018 Gotta give credit, when credit is due....WxBell's Pioneer Models November forecast compared to NMME... 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted April 22, 2018 Report Share Posted April 22, 2018 Beautiful, gorgeous weekend on tap. Temps in the 60s, if you can believe that. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted April 22, 2018 Report Share Posted April 22, 2018 Hard to believe that my area came close to breaking a record low last night. My low was 25.9F. The record was 24F set back in 1981. Geez. Cold air still wants to hang tough around my area. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted April 22, 2018 Report Share Posted April 22, 2018 Talked to a farmer at church this morning. Planting season is delayed waiting for soil temps to increase. Might be into May before they start but he hopes earlier. He said the longer you wait, there is always the chance of a very early frost in September to cause problems. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted April 22, 2018 Report Share Posted April 22, 2018 Talked to a farmer at church this morning. Planting season is delayed waiting for soil temps to increase. Might be into May before they start but he hopes earlier. He said the longer you wait, there is always the chance of a very early frost in September to cause problems.Shouldn't be a problem increasing considering we're fixing to consistently be in the 60s. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted April 22, 2018 Report Share Posted April 22, 2018 Shouldn't be a problem increasing considering we're fixing to consistently be in the 60s.He said things had been progressing then the blizzard hit with frigid lows following. If we can stay away from lows in the 20’s and low 30’s things will be good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted April 22, 2018 Report Share Posted April 22, 2018 12Z GFS painting a good looking scenario for some severe weather in Eastern Nebraska next Monday. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted April 22, 2018 Report Share Posted April 22, 2018 He said things had been progressing then the blizzard hit with frigid lows following. If we can stay away from lows in the 20’s and low 30’s things will be good.If we repeat 1911 again, which is a top 3 analog for this year so far, they'd better be prepared to take some losses at harvest time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted April 22, 2018 Report Share Posted April 22, 2018 This is an interesting study that was conducted during last years Canadian wildfire season. A lot of similarities in the wx pattern this season argue that we will see another bad fire season up north. https://www.facebook.com/TomSkilling/posts/10156196556436760I know it's weird but when they have wildfires up there and I sit under cool NW flow in the late summer, Oklahoma sunsets are incredible due to the smoke in the atmosphere. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted April 22, 2018 Report Share Posted April 22, 2018 That's really odd to hear you still have bare trees in your neck of the woods. Over here, 100% of the trees are still bare, although, during the "brief" 2-day warm spell (11th-12th) , trees did try to bud but then the cold snap came and hit them hard. We're going to need a stretch of warm and sunny days and hopefully by early next week the process of growth can occur. It's rather depressing having to look at "skeletons" throughout the neighborhood! This is my first Spring in many years (6), where I have not gone to AZ yet. Work and family stuff has kept me in Chicago but I'm hopeful to take a break very soon. Experiencing this type of weather just validates why Spring's in the SW are a blessing.It is crazy for Oklahoma. I still have brown patches of grass in my yard also. The latest "leaf-out" that I remember in my life would have to be 2013. We're way behind that now, which may be a huge clue that there will likely be more cold temp records set in May down here. When it snowed May 3, 2013, there weren't any bare trees and the grass was fully green. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted April 22, 2018 Report Share Posted April 22, 2018 I was down in Kansas City yesterday and one specific tree species had white flowers on it. Those are the only trees there that were doing anything. Still absolutely no progress here, although most of the grass is finally green there are some brown areas. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted April 22, 2018 Report Share Posted April 22, 2018 I was down in Kansas City yesterday and one specific tree species had white flowers on it. Those are the only trees there that were doing anything. Still absolutely no progress here, although most of the grass is finally green there are some brown areas.Those would be Dogwood trees. They bloomed in spite of the weather here and then when it froze again it made their blooms ugly. For about 2 weeks though, they looked like ghosts in the forests here. It was the first time I'd ever seen them bloom by themselves. I've always loved Dogwoods. The last full weekend in April, the town 12 miles to my north celebrates what is known as the Dogwood festival. It's a pretty big deal here. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted April 22, 2018 Report Share Posted April 22, 2018 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted April 22, 2018 Report Share Posted April 22, 2018 Did some yardwork today and about to grill steaks. Perfect weather. Sun, light breeze and 67. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted April 22, 2018 Report Share Posted April 22, 2018 No trees budding at all here. Some grass greening up, but most still brown with patches of green. It will be May next week so seems rather slow imo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted April 23, 2018 Report Share Posted April 23, 2018 My brother got to witness his first ever tornado on his way home from Florida today. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted April 23, 2018 Report Share Posted April 23, 2018 We made it to the low 70s today when it was only forecast to be in the low 60s. The rest of the week ahead has also been trending up by a few degrees so hopefully that works out. My tulips still haven’t bloomed Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted April 23, 2018 Report Share Posted April 23, 2018 We've also overperformed the last couple days. My tulips are only about two inches tall. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 23, 2018 Author Report Share Posted April 23, 2018 So glad to see the models holding onto the warm finish to the week and into the weekend! We will likely see the best Spring weekend of 2018 this coming week for a lot of us on here. The big ridge to develop across the central CONUS is directly related to the late Oct pattern (22nd-24th) which brought a strong storm system driving into the west coast and pumped a big ridge in the central states. However, during this cycle we have to account for seasonal differences and I expect this system to take a more northerly track, similar to the track this system took in LRC cycle #2 between Dec 4th/5th that brought an Upper MW Blizzard. 00z EPS... What happens after this system passes??? I think the EPS has the right idea and a more seasonably cooler pattern sets up post May 3rd while the GEFS are insisting a largely AN temp regime. I'm not sure if anyone has noticed, but doesn't it seem like every year the GEFS almost always seem way to warm during the Week 2 period in the late Spring/Summer months and to cold in the Autumn/Winter months??? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 23, 2018 Author Report Share Posted April 23, 2018 Unless we see any measurable snow in May, Chicago just had about as close to an avg snow season as one can get. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted April 23, 2018 Report Share Posted April 23, 2018 GFS continues to advertise extremely high CAPE levels early next week. However, there is too much capping and too weak shear Monday, and Tuesday the shear is god awful. High lapse rates on Monday MAY suggest a hail threat but any severe wx threats Tuesday should stay North of here per GFS. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted April 23, 2018 Report Share Posted April 23, 2018 GFS continues to advertise extremely high CAPE levels early next week. However, there is too much capping and too weak shear Monday, and Tuesday the shear is god awful. High lapse rates on Monday MAY suggest a hail threat but any severe wx threats Tuesday should stay North of here per GFS. Gosh, this is really taking some getting used to in terms of paying attention to Illinois' weather rather than Nebraska's. Tomorrow will be my official last day in Lincoln, and I couldn't have asked for a better ending. Temps near 70, and absolutely beautiful. Going to be really tough on me leaving here, really had some awesome times. Regardless, I'm hoping severe wx season gets started here soon, because this is insane how slow it's been so far! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted April 23, 2018 Report Share Posted April 23, 2018 Gosh, this is really taking some getting used to in terms of paying attention to Illinois' weather rather than Nebraska's. Tomorrow will be my official last day in Lincoln, and I couldn't have asked for a better ending. Temps near 70, and absolutely beautiful. Going to be really tough on me leaving here, really had some awesome times. Regardless, I'm hoping severe wx season gets started here soon, because this is insane how slow it's been so far! I'll miss having you here! Enjoy getting every storm that we don't get. 2 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted April 23, 2018 Report Share Posted April 23, 2018 While not officially at the airport yet. I now have 70° here at my house. The last time GRR had a 70° or better reading was on October 22, 2017. That is 184 days so it has been 6 months since the last official 70° or better day here in Grand Rapids. The seasonal snow fall here at Grand Rapids is now at 77.7" that should be the seasonal total 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted April 24, 2018 Report Share Posted April 24, 2018 MPX tweeting that 2” soil temp is already at 54F.....a little more than one week after an 18” snowfall on top of frozen ground. I was noticing yesterday how soft the ground felt. I didn’t think the soil temp was that warm already though. Pretty remarkable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianJK Posted April 24, 2018 Report Share Posted April 24, 2018 MPX tweeting that 2” soil temp is already at 54F.....a little more than one week after an 18” snowfall on top of frozen ground. I was noticing yesterday how soft the ground felt. I didn’t think the soil temp was that warm already though. Pretty remarkable.Any snow left up by you or is it completely gone? Neighbor next to me up in Eagle River said still a few inches but was melting very quickly. Guess is was close to 60 up there over the weekend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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