Really, really lovely cumulonimbus action tonight! I just happened to have my drone in the car and got some solid shots of DT Seattle/Lake Washington/Mercer Island/Bellevue looking north from Skyway. Alas, the focal length of the lens doesn't do the vertical height justice and my WB was off rendering it into semi-gross HDR territory, but still... fun looking weather! It was quite windy- I was flying right at 390 ft and the drone was giving me all sorts of warnings about sustained winds/gusts.
A most incredible snow storm. At times the snowfall rates have been as heavy or slightly heavier than January 2017. Temp 27.5, Dewpoint: 27.1 with gusty east wind and very heavy snow continuing. I'm at 11 1/2" now! UNBELIEVABLE!!!! This pic does no justice at all.
NBM is quite an interesting product! Their weighting algorithm is moderately complex and dynamic, though does has some drawbacks as we saw yesterday. For those who don't know, NBM is an attempt by NOAA to create a super probabilistic forecast model that ingests output from all the models above and outputs forecast guidance for local offices that help them to gauge the relative odds of particular weather outcomes. The 'special sauce' is the post-processing, normalization and weighting that they d
I'm looking to be on the southern end of an MCS overnight which likely means a long night of severe weather and heavy rains. Memorial Day looks dry and beautiful here with a high near 80.
We have tickets for today’s Tiger game so we will be on a road trip to Detroit. Well the start of meteorological summer just around the corner it is a good time to talk a look at what the major models are hinting at for this summer. Most indications are that we will be going from an El Nino to a La Nina this summer and into the fall and next winter. So what does that mean for out summer season?
The shift from one phase to another starts below the ocean surface. With the aid of the trade winds and ocean currents, temperature anomalies at depth move from west to east, eventually coming to the surface over the eastern Pacific. The summer of 2024 will be in the middle of the transition period from one ENSO phase to another, maybe creating some unusual anomalies in the process. The general trend for this summer is for a warmer than average summer season and there is a possibly that there could be a good deal of thunderstorm activity as well. I will post a link to a site that has the top long range models and will let you go over them and see what each one has on tap for this summer. Rember this is only a trend and nothing is set is stone.
https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/summer-2024-final-forecast-atmospheric-shift-la-nina-united-states-canada-europe-fa/\
The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 82/51 there was not rainfall before midnight. The highest wind gust was 23 MPH out of the SE. There was 49% of possible sunshine. For today the average H/L is 73/52 the record high of 91 was set in 1977 and the record low of 31 was set in 1992. The most rainfall of 1.27” fell in 1970. Last year the Y/L was 67/41.
The overnight low here in MBY and the current temperature is 62 I had 0.22” of rainfall while the airport has had at least 0.33” so far.
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