PNW February 2023 Weather Discussion - Meteorological winter finale

[MossMan]

Great to have some pessimism back on the thread…It was way too positive the last few days…Just didn’t feel like home, now it does.

[AlTahoe]

Just took a peak at weather.wrong and it looks like it might snow some here. 

[ShawniganLake]

Arctic air is still 6 days away, here on the west side.  Snow maps probably will fluctuate a few more times. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, AlTahoe said:

Just took a peak at weather.wrong and it looks like it might snow some here. 

Just some snow showers, nothing to worry about. 

[TT-SEA]

8 minutes ago, Timmy said:

This thing is teetering on pretty lame if it doesn’t produce snow at pdx. Canadian isn’t impressive. 

12Z GEM is worse for snow going into the cold for western WA compared to its 00Z run.

[The Cats Meow]

gonna have to rely on the inch or so of arctic front snow and then just be happy to have survived this monster blast

[Rubus Leucodermis]

4 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

That would be a juicy one IMBY.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Another snowstorm up north 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Another snowstorm up north 

Dry blast into lingering chill with sloppy snow events. Sorta bummed that the initial blast increasingly looks dry IMBY, but have had several non-dry blasts recently and can’t win ’em all.

[Gummy]

3 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Yea, figures the low would come in there. Could work out well for Vancouver.

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Dry blast into lingering chill with sloppy snow events. Sorta bummed that the initial blast increasingly looks dry IMBY, but have had several non-dry blasts recently and can’t win ’em all.

Onto next season. November is going to be epic! 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 minutes ago, Gummy said:

Yea, figures the low would come in there. Could work out well for Vancouver.

It could, but then again, .

[Doinko]

30 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GFS is much less snowy for western WA going into the cold.    Over the last two days... the focus on the snow going into the cold has been shifting south on the GFS runs.    Previously over Whatcom County and SW BC and now over western OR on the 12Z run.

 

That looks pretty nice for the Valley

[SouthHillFrosty]

Vancouver is the bigger winner again

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Vancouver is the bigger winner again

Wow, not really sure what all the whining is about. 

[Fircrest]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Definitely can be deceiving.   Either way... this event looks much more explosive than our usual slow bleed situations.  

Richard Mann could probably explain it.  He was always talking about the movement of cold air.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Wow, not really sure what all the whining is about. 

Looks awesome, i have not been looking to hard for my home area but it looks great for my cabin area, trying to get up there next weekend. Still looking like a big dump around the canal .

[SouthHillFrosty]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Wow, not really sure what all the whining is about. 

No whining? I just said “Vancouver is the big winner again” since they are in a good spot for a couple storms. Chill buddy.  I like the southern trend for the first system. I want Portland to to get hit. 

Edited February 16, 2023 by SouthHillFrosty

[Phil]

32 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

Just took a peak at weather.wrong and it looks like it might snow some here. 

I don’t follow/use wx-apps all that much, but have noticed that TWC accuracy has tanked here over the last 1-2 years.

Daily forecasts on postfrontal/pressure rise days will often call for 10-20mph NW winds w/ no gusts, but in reality we end up with 45-55mph gusts.

And last summer their temperature forecasts beyond D5 were insanely cool biased..it was basically trolling.  All those mid/upper 80s ended up being low 90s.

Must be some serious cost-cutting going on behind the scenes, because they used to do well with this stuff. Any model that handles topography/BL mixing sufficiently can pick up on this stuff, but it whatevs.

[RentonHill]

I mean, California is really the big winner here. Feels like everything has been diving super far south this winter. Their cup overfloweth and @AlTahoe is fubar 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Wow, not really sure what all the whining is about. 

Of course the GFS is going to show tons of snow after day 7... and its marginal errors keep getting compounded and it will look great for everyone!

[Doinko]

What does the ICON snow map look like?

[Cold Snap]

3 minutes ago, Doinko said:

What does the ICON snow map look like?

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Of course the GFS is going to show tons of snow after day 7... and its marginal errors keep getting compounded and it will look great for everyone!

Exactly. I don’t really care about snow modelled in deep clown range. If I saw as much snow IMBY as those models forecast, they would be able to run a small ski slope in Queen Elizabeth Park on the resulting annual snowfall.

[TacomaWx]

13 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Wow, not really sure what all the whining is about. 

I’m already at average snowfall for the winter so I’m fine getting not much…but I’m sure in the end this will probably work out. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

11 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

No whining? I just said “Vancouver is the big winner again” since they are in a good spot for a couple storms. Chill buddy.  I like the southern trend for the first system. I want Portland to to get hit. 

I wasn’t really directing that at you. 

[TacomaWx]

Nice winter morning in the claw. 

[Timmy]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Of course the GFS is going to show tons of snow after day 7... and its marginal errors keep getting compounded and it will look great for everyone!

This 

[SouthHillFrosty]

10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I wasn’t really directing that at you. 

Ah felt directed at me since you quoted my post. My bad

Edited February 16, 2023 by SouthHillFrosty

[Christensen87]

4 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Nice winter morning in the claw. 

Across from PSE on 244th

[SouthHillFrosty]

Step back on the ensembles as we come into range 

[Fircrest]

Did Rob leave the forum? Or is he just busy with his FB group?

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Fircrest said:

Did Rob leave the forum? Or is he just busy with his FB group?

Rob comes and goes all the time... and usually disappears as big events become imminent.  

[Snownerd3000]

11 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Step back on the ensembles as we come into range 

Curious to see if this is a trend or just one model run. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

1 minute ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Curious to see if this is a trend or just one model run. 

Um it’s been fluctuating up and down about 1in ish every run. However, Portland looks to be in good shape

No major downtrends yet in snow. 

[TT-SEA]

12Z WRF... snow total over the next week.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z WRF... snow total over the next week.

Looks good for the Willamette Valley. 

[RentonHill]

One of these runs is gonna show a bigass low barreling down on us coming out of nowhere and it’s going to be SICK

[Fircrest]

10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Rob comes and goes all the time... and usually disappears as big events become imminent.  

Yeah, I've noticed that.  Was just wondering if it had anything to do with the music preference discussion that was going on a couple of days ago....