October 2018 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

Very alders. Much color. Wow.

[TT-SEA]

Very alders. Much color. Wow.

Very few. Calm down Jesse.

[Jesse]

Very few. Calm down Jesse.

I take it you aren’t familiar with doge memes.

 

[Jesse]

I’ll take it. Not that I really have much of a choice, lol!

 

[TT-SEA]

Was just down in North Bend...

 

[Esquimalt]

A bit of a convergence zone hitting victoria this morning.  If you check radar you'll see a pretty intense, narrow band of precipitation has been on and off since 4 AM! 

[stuffradio]

I mostly just hate native species since they are a constant reminder of how disgustingly drippy and mossy our climate can be.

I'm with you on this, although my climate is not really drippy, it's more wet than drippy.

[Jesse]

12z Euro looks to bring some cold air into western Canada at hour 192.

[ShawniganLake]

Amen to that. Hopefully the EPS is just mixed up (God help us if it isn't).

It looks like a chilly transient trough on the 500mb pattern, so it’s not like we are “wasting” a favourable setup for arctic air. Besides, 1996 had November cold and snow and December produced one of Victoria’s greatest ever winter storms.

[Jesse]

It looks like a chilly transient trough on the 500mb pattern, so it’s not like we are “wasting” a favourable setup for arctic air. Besides, 1996 had November cold and snow and December produced on of Victoria’s greatest ever winter storms.

Keep that away from here until November 23rd at 4:51 pm Pacific time. At that precise moment it will switch from being an awful sign to a great sign.

[Kayla]

12z Euro brings first real cold airmass of the season with 700mb dropping to -20C in eastern Montana early next week.

 

Also looks like a retrogression reload at day 10 about to drop in. Watch that 10th-20th period...

[Front Ranger]

12z Euro brings first real cold airmass of the season with 700mb dropping to -20C in eastern Montana early next week.

 

Also looks like a retrogression reload at day 10 about to drop in. Watch that 10th-20th period...

Definitely some cold/blocking signals starting to show up in the models again.

[TT-SEA]

Nice break this afternoon... its been partly sunny since mid-morning.

 

[Esquimalt]

12z Euro brings first real cold airmass of the season with 700mb dropping to -20C in eastern Montana early next week.

 

Also looks like a retrogression reload at day 10 about to drop in. Watch that 10th-20th period...

I just hope i don't miss it...i get back to the west from Ontario on the 15th

[wx_statman]

Some neat stats from NASA's MERRA2 reanalysis. 

 

I looked at low-level atmospheric moisture over the lowest 100 hPA in Portland, for 1988-2017. The lowest daily values, ranked by standard deviation from the average for that date:

 

1) 11/17/2014 (the winner at -3.1 sd's compared to avg. moisture for that date)

2) 11/16/2014

3) 8/26/1992 

4) 8/4/2005

5) 7/12/2008 (the clipper!)

6) 2/3/1989

7) 11/27/2015

8) 10/24/2002

9) 3/25/1996

10) 12/2/2009

 

In other words, these are the most anomalously dry days for the time of year. Many of these days had out-of-season continental airmasses when steering is normally off the Pacific or from the south (i.e. typically more moisture in the lower levels).

[Jesse]

Awesome info. I love that sort of stuff. ^

[wx_statman]

12z Euro brings first real cold airmass of the season with 700mb dropping to -20C in eastern Montana early next week.

 

Also looks like a retrogression reload at day 10 about to drop in. Watch that 10th-20th period...

 

Definitely cold air building up north right now. Barrow is sitting at -15 on the hour:

 

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/timeseries.php?sid=pabr&num=168&banner=NONE&wfo=pqr

 

Looks like they haven't seen even -10 in October since 2002...

[MossMan]

Keep that s**t away from here until November 23rd at 4:51 pm Pacific time. At that precise moment it will switch from being an awful sign to a great sign.

Looks like we are finish for this winter season...perhaps 2019/20 will deliver the goodies.

[Jesse]

Looks like we are finish for this winter season...perhaps 2019/20 will deliver the goodies.

Finland has pretty decent winters.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Finland has pretty decent winters.

Not to mention the reindeer herding activities and private saunas.

[Jesse]

Not to mention the reindeer herding activities and private saunas.

I’ve heard that flying reindeer myth may have actually stemmed from hallucinogenic mushroom consumption in that region.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I’ve heard that flying reindeer myth may have actually stemmed from hallucinogenic mushroom consumption in that region.

Santa's elves dress like Sami people as well.

[Jesse]

Santa's elves dress like Sami people as well.

Surprised PC culture hasn’t cracked down on that one yet.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Surprised PC culture hasn’t cracked down on that one yet.

Pretty sure the Sami embrace it. As well as their flying magical reindeer and dear leader Santa.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Some neat stats from NASA's MERRA2 reanalysis. 

 

I looked at low-level atmospheric moisture over the lowest 100 hPA in Portland, for 1988-2017. The lowest daily values, ranked by standard deviation from the average for that date:

 

1) 11/17/2014 (the winner at -3.1 sd's compared to avg. moisture for that date)

2) 11/16/2014

3) 8/26/1992 

4) 8/4/2005

5) 7/12/2008 (the clipper!)

6) 2/3/1989

7) 11/27/2015

8) 10/24/2002

9) 3/25/1996

10) 12/2/2009

 

In other words, these are the most anomalously dry days for the time of year. Many of these days had out-of-season continental airmasses when steering is normally off the Pacific or from the south (i.e. typically more moisture in the lower levels).

 

Great stuff!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Magical 528 line making an appearance....

 

[Blizzard777]

Halloween storm approaching. Hope it has a sense of urgency and pushes on through quickly tonight leaving limited showers by tomorrow evening.

[Perturbed Member]

Halloween storm approaching. Hope it has a sense of urgency and pushes on through quickly tonight leaving limited showers by tomorrow evening.

 

Pretty much looks like it is right on schedule as modeled. 

[BLI snowman]

Nice day. First afternoon where the fog largely held on around here, with some coolish sunbreaks.

[Deweydog]

Nice day. First afternoon where the fog largely held on around here, with some coolish sunbreaks.

Dry day.

[TT-SEA]

Halloween storm approaching. Hope it has a sense of urgency and pushes on through quickly tonight leaving limited showers by tomorrow evening.

 

HRRR says no problem... gone by tomorrow morning!     Too bad its usually so wrong. 

 

 

[BLI snowman]

Dry day.

 

Dry era.

[Geos]

Made it to 55 here. Dry day so far. 

Looking like some rain around tomorrow early evening...

 

[Blizzard777]

HRRR says no problem... gone by tomorrow morning!     Too bad its usually so wrong. 

 

 

[/quote

 

 

Down in Tigard...we have a chance with the main part of the storm coming through overnight.

[TT-SEA]

Down in Tigard...we have a chance with the main part of the storm coming through overnight.

 

 

Definitely better odds down there... shadowing should come into play starting tomorrow morning.  

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Light shower in Corvallis headed down to Springfield.

[Phil]

I've been getting my fill. A fill of a man named Phil.

 

The context he speaks. The knowledge he thinks we seek. Its honestly makes as much sense as taking a leak.

 

Mark is watching. A grin ear to ear. He doesnt accept such jargon. Its as if Phil had too much beer.

 

I contemplate. I fantasize. But in Phil's world. He wonders. Will the SST's, fall or rise?

Is this your version of a haiku?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Is this your version of a haiku?

Busta Buster's Bustin' at ya!!

[TT-SEA]

00Z NAM has trended drier for tomorrow evening... too bad its the NAM.     

 

[wx_statman]

17 for a high today up in Fairbanks. A few days ago it was 52 - the warmest on record so late in the year @ the airport. Cooling off!