jcwxguy Posted February 15, 2023 Report Share Posted February 15, 2023 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 15, 2023 Report Share Posted February 15, 2023 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 15, 2023 Report Share Posted February 15, 2023 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 15, 2023 Report Share Posted February 15, 2023 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 15, 2023 Report Share Posted February 15, 2023 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 15, 2023 Author Report Share Posted February 15, 2023 EAX forecast this morning. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 15, 2023 Report Share Posted February 15, 2023 3 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 15, 2023 Report Share Posted February 15, 2023 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON CSTTHURSDAY...Ā * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 9 inches...with locally higher amounts possible across north central Kansas. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.Ā * WHERE...Portions of north central Kansas and south central Nebraska generally along and south of Highway 6.Ā * WHEN...From noon today to noon CST Thursday.Ā * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Areas of blowing and drifting snow could significantly reduce visibility.Ā 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 15, 2023 Report Share Posted February 15, 2023 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 15, 2023 Report Share Posted February 15, 2023 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 15, 2023 Report Share Posted February 15, 2023 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 15, 2023 Report Share Posted February 15, 2023 9 minutes ago, jcwxguy said: Every run of the Euro is south of the last run.Ā Ā Ā The HRRR/RAP agree with the Euro. This may be the second consecutive warning bust for Cedar Rapids. 1 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2"Ā Ā Ā '21-22: 27.1"Ā Ā Ā '20-21: 52.5"Ā Ā Ā '19-20: 36.2"Ā Ā Ā Ā '18-19: 50.2"Ā Ā Ā Ā '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 15, 2023 Report Share Posted February 15, 2023 I'm liking the recent trends down this way into N IL as most higher rez models keep the RN/SN line from the i-80 corridor on north.Ā I could see mostly snow which is a win considering I was out of the game just a couple days ago.Ā Ā This system should end up producing a lot of winners on here from the Plains to the Lakes...good luck to all!Ā Finally, a decent storm to track after whats been a warm FEB. 0z EPS... @OttumwaSnomowĀ @HawkeyeĀ and E IA crew look golden up into S Wisco... @MKEstorm Ā Ā Ā 12z NWS NDFD...never used this model before but I'm interested to see how good it performs... Ā Ā 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 15, 2023 Report Share Posted February 15, 2023 Wow. The HRRR is awful in Iowa. The only good news is the HRRR is awful in general it seems.Ā 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 15, 2023 Report Share Posted February 15, 2023 3 minutes ago, bud2380 said: Wow. The HRRR is awful in Iowa. The only good news is the HRRR is awful in general it seems.Ā The HRRR did about the best of any model last storm.Ā It started southeast and never budged.Ā In this case, the HRRR and Euro are trending in the same direction. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2"Ā Ā Ā '21-22: 27.1"Ā Ā Ā '20-21: 52.5"Ā Ā Ā '19-20: 36.2"Ā Ā Ā Ā '18-19: 50.2"Ā Ā Ā Ā '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 15, 2023 Report Share Posted February 15, 2023 5 minutes ago, bud2380 said: Wow. The HRRR is awful in Iowa. The only good news is the HRRR is awful in general it seems.Ā Big bust in Omaha if it's rightĀ 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted February 15, 2023 Report Share Posted February 15, 2023 Bigley bust! Lol!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted February 15, 2023 Report Share Posted February 15, 2023 Haven't tracked this too much, but now I'm probably close to the bullseye in Michigan for this storm.Ā Funny how that goes.Ā Nothing is certain until less than 24 hours out, and even then, who knows.Ā Ā 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 15, 2023 Report Share Posted February 15, 2023 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 15, 2023 Report Share Posted February 15, 2023 13z RAP has that heavy bullseye a few miles south of me.Ā 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 15, 2023 Report Share Posted February 15, 2023 12z NAM, 3kNAM, FV3 No real south shift from any of them, but definitely trending weaker. 3 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2"Ā Ā Ā '21-22: 27.1"Ā Ā Ā '20-21: 52.5"Ā Ā Ā '19-20: 36.2"Ā Ā Ā Ā '18-19: 50.2"Ā Ā Ā Ā '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted February 15, 2023 Report Share Posted February 15, 2023 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 15, 2023 Report Share Posted February 15, 2023 Falling apart --Ā 06Z Euro ( if true KOMA WSWarn for OMA is big bust) ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: OMA LAT= 41.30 LON= -95.90 ELE= 981 06Z FEB15 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 (C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK WED 06Z 15-FEB 1.7 -2.9 999 88 89 539 540 WED 12Z 15-FEB -1.5 -7.6 1013 68 45 546 535 WED 18Z 15-FEB -1.0 -4.9 1020 54 56 0.00 548 532 THU 00Z 16-FEB -4.8 -4.8 1022 59 86 0.00 549 532 THU 06Z 16-FEB -6.3 -5.5 1022 60 99 0.04 548 531 THU 12Z 16-FEB -7.1 -8.8 1023 64 99 0.12 542 524 THU 18Z 16-FEB -3.0 -8.9 1025 50 85 0.06 540 520 FRI 00Z 17-FEB -3.1 -8.7 1026 45 68 0.00 542 521 ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: DSM LAT= 41.53 LON= -93.65 ELE= 965 06Z FEB15 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 (C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK WED 06Z 15-FEB 5.1 -1.0 994 88 62 536 541 WED 12Z 15-FEB 1.2 -1.0 1007 76 62 545 540 WED 18Z 15-FEB 1.6 -2.2 1016 54 34 0.00 549 536 THU 00Z 16-FEB -0.4 -2.5 1019 53 72 0.00 550 535 THU 06Z 16-FEB -5.4 -2.9 1021 62 88 0.00 550 534 THU 12Z 16-FEB -4.6 -6.6 1018 70 100 0.05 545 531 THU 18Z 16-FEB -3.6 -8.7 1021 66 99 0.16 540 523 FRI 00Z 17-FEB -2.7 -8.9 1024 54 69 0.03 540 520 FRI 06Z 17-FEB -7.7 -9.6 1028 66 84 0.00 542 520 Ā Ā Ā 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 15, 2023 Report Share Posted February 15, 2023 To be fair- 06/18Z Euro runs usually 10% lower QPF than bottom of the clock runs-- but still, bad trend. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 15, 2023 Report Share Posted February 15, 2023 Cold air advection is under done on previous guidance -- just catching up-----dry air). Likely going to wash out totals for many unless certain location can get under upper air forcing. (frontogenenis) dont bet on it. System again mocks the winter as a bust for many ---- 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 15, 2023 Report Share Posted February 15, 2023 12z RDPS is south and weaker. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2"Ā Ā Ā '21-22: 27.1"Ā Ā Ā '20-21: 52.5"Ā Ā Ā '19-20: 36.2"Ā Ā Ā Ā '18-19: 50.2"Ā Ā Ā Ā '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 15, 2023 Report Share Posted February 15, 2023 12z ARW.Ā My area gets drilled.Ā Ā 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 15, 2023 Report Share Posted February 15, 2023 3 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: 12z RDPS is south and weaker. trending toward the Euro? Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 15, 2023 Report Share Posted February 15, 2023 28 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said: Cold air advection is under done on previous guidance -- just catching up-----dry air). Likely going to wash out totals for many unless certain location can get under upper air forcing. (frontogenenis) dont bet on it. System again mocks the winter as a bust for many ---- Light snow and falling temps already here. Last night hung around 34 when 42 was expected Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted February 15, 2023 Report Share Posted February 15, 2023 Iām just southeast of the town of Bennington, so this matches with what my bitter/jaded forecast of 1.5ā is for my backyard. Plus it keeps us in single digits for snowfall for the season. Something to shoot for. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted February 15, 2023 Report Share Posted February 15, 2023 Close your eyes looking at the icon! Bust City here we come! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 15, 2023 Report Share Posted February 15, 2023 GFS continues to say, storm is still on.Ā Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 15, 2023 Report Share Posted February 15, 2023 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 15, 2023 Report Share Posted February 15, 2023 Big south shift on the 12z HRDPS. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2"Ā Ā Ā '21-22: 27.1"Ā Ā Ā '20-21: 52.5"Ā Ā Ā '19-20: 36.2"Ā Ā Ā Ā '18-19: 50.2"Ā Ā Ā Ā '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 15, 2023 Report Share Posted February 15, 2023 3 hours ago, Tom said: I'm liking the recent trends down this way into N IL as most higher rez models keep the RN/SN line from the i-80 corridor on north.Ā I could see mostly snow which is a win considering I was out of the game just a couple days ago.Ā Ā This system should end up producing a lot of winners on here from the Plains to the Lakes...good luck to all!Ā Finally, a decent storm to track after whats been a warm FEB. 0z EPS... @OttumwaSnomowĀ @HawkeyeĀ and E IA crew look golden up into S Wisco... @MKEstorm Ā Ā Ā 12z NWS NDFD...never used this model before but I'm interested to see how good it performs... Ā Ā Couple inches by us looks achievable with slightly more towards the border. Nothing to write home about or really get excited about for at least Chitown folks. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 15, 2023 Report Share Posted February 15, 2023 15z RAP 1 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2"Ā Ā Ā '21-22: 27.1"Ā Ā Ā '20-21: 52.5"Ā Ā Ā '19-20: 36.2"Ā Ā Ā Ā '18-19: 50.2"Ā Ā Ā Ā '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 15, 2023 Report Share Posted February 15, 2023 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 15, 2023 Report Share Posted February 15, 2023 The WSW for 4-7" could happen I suppose, but I'm definitely not liking the odds.Ā 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 15, 2023 Report Share Posted February 15, 2023 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted February 15, 2023 Report Share Posted February 15, 2023 Yeah, this is about the time the WSW start coming down in totals for me. 5-8 in the SWS and Wunderground thinks "4.5". Preparing for 2 inches. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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