2/14 - 2/17 Cutter and Panhandle Hook

[jcwxguy]

[gabel23]

Meanwhile south east of OKC…..

[CentralNebWeather]

Very heavy band just sitting over me. 1/8 visibility. 

[CentralNebWeather]

01z HRRR 

[gabel23]

Pretty strong vort sig. 

[CentralNebWeather]

NWS Hastings update. 

..WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CSTTHURSDAY... 

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. 

* WHERE...Portions of north central Kansas and east central and south central Nebraska. 

* WHEN...Until noon CST Thursday. 

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute. 

[gabel23]

27 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Very heavy band just sitting over me. 1/8 visibility. 

Snow is pulsating right over your area. River effect snow?? Hoping it rides it’s way up north into my area.

[gabel23]

Pretty clear banding showing up right a long the platte river. It’s full so hopefully that can add some moisture to this band……

[CentralNebWeather]

3 minutes ago, gabel23 said:

Pretty clear banding showing up right a long the platte river. It’s full so hopefully that can add some moisture to this band……

It is quite a band. Easily 1-2” an hour rate. Visibility at times drops to near 0. 

[mlgamer]

Continue to have brief waves of mostly graupel passing through this evening. The latest batch was nearly pea size and almost sounded like small hail hitting the house. Don't really see this too often. I'd rather have the near blizzard conditions but oh well...lol. Temp is 31F.

ETA: Just had a loud clap of thunder to go with all of this! Rockin' and rollin' out there...lol

[Hawkeye]

00z RDPS

[CentralNebWeather]

Viaero camera here in town at 9:30 pm. 

[CentralNebWeather]

My son was over at a friends house across town. Said streets are horrible and in some places, he couldn’t see the street in front of him due to heavy snow and snow blowing sideways. 

[Grizzcoat]

Even with the most recent (0Z) GFS giving C.IA 8"+ and been rather consistent -- I don't buy it.

Last event on FEB 9th-- it's 06Z run had DSM getting 4.0" by 12Z --- got .1".

Same goes with RDPS. Toss it. Sadly its likely going to be HRRR with the win.

[Hawkeye]

00z GFS

[jcwxguy]

[Hawkeye]

00z GDPS... farther east

[The Snowman]

Fascinating, models still want >6" in Omaha. Just don't see it. Would love to be wrong.

[Hawkeye]

03z RAP

 

[indianajohn]

@Tom @Hoosier are we not paying much attention to these high rez for decent lake effect for Nwi.? Or is it just wishful thinking?

[clintbeed1993]

This is a really lame storm. The snow band is about 50 miles wide lmao. Anyone outside that gets zilch 

[DSM WeatherNut]

26 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

03z RAP

 

Looks closest to radar trends so far.

[OmahaSnowFan]

36 minutes ago, The Snowman said:

Fascinating, models still want >6" in Omaha. Just don't see it. Would love to be wrong.

It seems to be at least trying to set up further north. Still fighting the D**n dry air though

[Grizzcoat]

Really hope the UKIE is on to something. Big increase here in C.IA from 12Z-

[DSM WeatherNut]

2 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

Really hope the UKIE is on to something. Big increase here in C.IA from 12Z-

Decent shift on that model

[Stacsh]

My office basically says they have no idea lol

 

GRR

Will not be making any changes to the current advisory and precip/snow amounts, but there are still some uncertainties with the Thursday system. First, the QPF amounts are still in question with the new 00Z NAM showing only around 0.3 to 0.5 but the 00Z HRRR/ARW forecasting 0.5 to 0.75. All 3 of these HiRes models do have the same placement of the max QPF axis/swath though, from roughly BIV to GRR to AMN. This corridor also represents the likely dividing line between mostly snow to the north and mostly sleet to the south, so where it is primarily all snow the 4-6" amounts should work out fine and there may be locally more than 6" depending on where the best FGEN banding sets up (and if the HRRR/ARW QPF is accurate). Meanwhile the newer guidance is less bullish on QPF across the area north of a MKG to MOP line, suggesting accumulations may be lower than currently forecast. However snow ratios should be higher across this area being deeper in the colder air. This is a case where a model blended QPF and Snow Ratio approach may not be ideal. The values may be too smeared out and lower over a broader area. It is quite possible in this event that a relatively narrow band of heavier snow/sleet occurs within or near that BIV to GRR to AMN corridor, with less precipitation occuring on either side of where the best FGEN forcing zone sets up.

[clintbeed1993]

Well congratulations to Holdrege, AGAIN 

[gabel23]

Well dry air wins out here. Nothing falling but radar is showing reflectivity.Going off humidity; I’m sitting at 77%. Places getting light snow are at 82% and @CentralNebWeatheris sitting at 88% with moderate snow. South central Nebraska is gonna do really well. I’m holding on hope areas from Lincoln and Omaha on east get something. You guys are so over due. 
 

[Hawkeye]

00z Euro... very sharp gradient over east-central Iowa. 

[Stormy]

It really began snowing here maybe 45 minutes ago and it's already getting a bit white out there! It started sooner than I expected so it could over perform, but there's a lot of sleet mixed in now and I hear it hitting the window so that could cut into totals. But some sleet was kinda expected at onset down here. Saw some big flakes too. This probably won't be a high ratio snowfall here with plenty moisture available. 

 

Edited February 16, 2023 by Sparky
*Could

[Grizzcoat]

11 minutes ago, Sparky said:

It really began snowing here maybe 45 minutes ago and it's already getting a bit white out there! It started sooner than I expected so it could over perform, but there's a lot of sleet mixed in now and I hear it hitting the window so that couldn't cut into totals. But some sleet was kinda expected at onset down here. Saw some big flakes too. This probably won't be there high ratio snowfall here with plenty moisture available. 

 

Where in SE IA you Sparky?

County is fine.,

[Stormy]

12 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

Where in SE IA you Sparky?

County is fine.,

Johnson county or about 12 miles sw of Iowa City. 

[jcwxguy]

Fwiw, it had basically nothing here and Omaha for another hour and just had the snow start in Lincoln right now 

[jcwxguy]

[jcwxguy]

[OttumwaSnomow]

Closing in on our 1st inch here.  Its going to be a busy day. Will try to update you folks later.  We look to be a bullseye some where near here.

[Grizzcoat]

Started here about 30 mins ago. Overcame dry air quicker than I thought but about on par with CAM's.

Been watching the obs and radar near Holdrege,NE--- they have to have at least 8" based on what I've seen.

 

[jcwxguy]

hope this is right for omaha/lincoln folks 

[Black Hole]

Thunderstorm activity got further north than I was expecting. I got an inch of rain in 30 minutes, with 1.09" total. Good frequent lightning too. It was a nice surprise to the upside for rainfall. 

[jcwxguy]