Clinton Posted February 11 Report Share Posted February 11 2 storms look to target the western and possibly the central sub next week. Models for now are in good agreement given the range. 12z EPS for the first cutter. Will the second and stronger storm target those who have missed out in Nebraska or will Mother Nature throw a slider. 12z EPS 18z GEFS 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 11 Report Share Posted February 11 12 minutes ago, Clinton said: 2 storms look to target the western and possibly the central sub next week. Models for now are in good agreement given the range. 12z EPS for the first cutter. Will the second and stronger storm target those who have missed out in Nebraska or will Mother Nature throw a slider. 12z EPS 18z GEFS In St. Paul Nebraska for JV and Varsity basketball for our guys, so not much time to check models. Thanks for starting this thread @Clinton 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 11 Report Share Posted February 11 ZZZ 1 1 Quote Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 27.5" Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25) Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 2.0 Mar: 8.2 Apr: 0.0 Annual avg for mby = 45.0" (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 11 Author Report Share Posted February 11 I should have put this in the open for the thread. This part of the pattern has the potential to produce a major severe weather outbreak across the southern plains. In the early November version this system produced a devastating tornado outbreak across NE Texas and Eastern Oklahoma. This was the SPC forecast for 11/4. 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 11 Author Report Share Posted February 11 18z Euro Control at hr 144. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted February 11 Report Share Posted February 11 1 hour ago, jaster220 said: ZZZ It’s over 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 11 Report Share Posted February 11 Sharp cutoff on gfs from the haves to have nots Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 11 Report Share Posted February 11 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted February 11 Report Share Posted February 11 Not too shabby... 2 Quote Weather station: https://sodakweather.com Twitter: https://twitter.com/SoDakWx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bellona Posted February 11 Report Share Posted February 11 As much as I'd love to be in the bullseye at this point, I must say I'm happy I'm not. A little drift se would be nice. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted February 11 Report Share Posted February 11 35 inches for FSD. Good ol GFS... 1 1 Quote Weather station: https://sodakweather.com Twitter: https://twitter.com/SoDakWx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 11 Report Share Posted February 11 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 11 Report Share Posted February 11 Still snowing at this point 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 11 Report Share Posted February 11 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted February 11 Report Share Posted February 11 Our local met, who is good, is alerting us to some light snow possible tonight, Accumulating on grass but not on streets. I won’t hold my breath but it would be pretty. Low of 32. 2 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted February 11 Report Share Posted February 11 Pretty big shift to the SE on the 00z GEFS... 3 Quote Weather station: https://sodakweather.com Twitter: https://twitter.com/SoDakWx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted February 11 Report Share Posted February 11 At this point it seems very unlikely this system trends far enough south to result in anything meaningful down my way. Probably will get a decent rain, but even then it doesn't look all that impressive given limited instability. Cold air does spill in but it'll be dry by that point. After that just got to hope the SSW can work some magic. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 11 Report Share Posted February 11 Euro shifted south in eastern Iowa. Clips Iowa city and give CR about 6”. 1 Quote Season Snowfall: ~ 20.00" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 11 Report Share Posted February 11 52 minutes ago, bud2380 said: Euro shifted south in eastern Iowa. Clips Iowa city and give CR about 6”. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 11 Report Share Posted February 11 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 11 Report Share Posted February 11 0z Euro Control. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterSquall23 Posted February 11 Report Share Posted February 11 11 hours ago, jaster220 said: ZZZ Winter is Forked for us. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 11 Report Share Posted February 11 NWS Hastings morning disco: The latest model data has trended further north with both of these disturbances...bringing the center of both upper level lows across southeastern Nebraska. While the first system continues to be mild for mid-February...with rain expected for the local area and even a little instability just southeast of our borders...the second system is looking a bit more problematic with a strengthening upper level low as it crosses the area (think windy) and increased moisture for increased snowfall amounts behind a strong surface cold front. While still several days out and subject to refinement/change, this set up which is coming into better alignment in global models would result in both impactful snowfall and winds mainly Wednesday afternoon/evening...something which will need to be monitored for changes over the coming days. Not surprisingly, the latest NBM has also has trended significantly upward...bringing greater than a 50 percent chance for 4 inches of snowfall or more to the local area now with this system. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 11 Report Share Posted February 11 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 11 Report Share Posted February 11 NWS North Platte: “a secondary, stronger low will cross the Four Corners into Kansas Wednesday into Wednesday night. A strong deformation zone will develop on the northern periphery of this system with a decent threat for precipitation from Kansas into Nebraska. Temperatures will be much colder with this system, so all snow will be the main precipitation type. The latest GFS and Canadian solutions develop a swath of accumulating snow from southwestern through northeastern Nebraska. The EC soln is further south, favoring northwestern Kansas into southeastern Nebraska. With the GFS and Canadian solns indicating a decent threat for snow across the area and the EC just off to the south of the area, will begin to message the midweek threat for snow this morning.” 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted February 11 Report Share Posted February 11 Now we have the usual situation where I need the models to trend south only to see them remain locked in or trend further north. Call it the Cardinal Rule of Topeka Weather. 2 Quote 22-23 Total Snowfall: 6.1" as of 03/18/23. 37% of normal to date. King of the 1" snowfalls (0.6", 1.5", 1.0", 1.0, 1.1", 0.4", 0.2", 0.3") Last snowfall >6": Feb 4, 2014: 13" (nine years and counting) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 11 Author Report Share Posted February 11 6z GEFS not really further south but the northern edge was trimmed down some. Perhaps a sign the western half of the storm may sink further south. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 11 Author Report Share Posted February 11 The Euro Control continues to trend flatter with the storm. 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 11 Author Report Share Posted February 11 Oklahoma and Texas will want to keep close tabs on this. SPC with a Day 5 risk area over the same areas that were hit hard in early November. Not trying to be some sort of expert in forecasting severe weather or any weather but I do have a bad feeling about this area next week. @Andie @Black Hole @Iceresistance @OKwx2k4 3 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 11 Report Share Posted February 11 13z NWS Blend. Looks like an I80 to I70 special. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 11 Report Share Posted February 11 12z ICON Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 11 Report Share Posted February 11 GFS coming in south and less amped again Not surprising considering most secondary lows are usually weaker 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 11 Report Share Posted February 11 12z GFS. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 11 Report Share Posted February 11 Precio field looks so weird on the GFS… Low tracks over Chicago yet the heaviest precip is way up in Green Bay area? 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted February 11 Report Share Posted February 11 12z GEM looking like it'll come in quite a bit to the SE vs 00... 1 Quote Weather station: https://sodakweather.com Twitter: https://twitter.com/SoDakWx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 11 Report Share Posted February 11 GEM with 12-18 from LSE to GB otherwise general 6-12 from NE to Iowa 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 11 Report Share Posted February 11 12z Canadian 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 11 Report Share Posted February 11 GEM has temps of 23 degrees here and sleet..still manages 5-6 inches of snow but that would be something.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 11 Report Share Posted February 11 14 hours ago, Stacsh said: It’s over 4 hours ago, WinterSquall23 said: Winter is Forked for us. Until 3rd wk of March, when my one and only storm will re-loop. But by then, I expect the "shoulder season special" of 2-3" grass topping event here in the hot box of SEMI. Yawn This predominantly Plains track for 3 straight winters sucks 1 Quote Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 27.5" Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25) Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 2.0 Mar: 8.2 Apr: 0.0 Annual avg for mby = 45.0" (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 11 Report Share Posted February 11 might be my only shot at a true hooker this year 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 11 Author Report Share Posted February 11 11 minutes ago, jaster220 said: Until 3rd wk of March, when my one and only storm will re-loop. But by then, I expect the "shoulder season special" of 2-3" grass topping event here in the hot box of SEMI. Yawn This predominantly Plains track for 3 straight winters sucks You could sure use some moisture, your area is one of the few that haven't seen improvement with the drought, you don't want to go into the warmer months already being in severe drought. I hope you at least see decent rainfall from these storms. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 11 Report Share Posted February 11 Ukie clearly seeing this one the best... 2 1 Quote Season Snowfall: ~ 20.00" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 11 Report Share Posted February 11 Leaving for another road basketball game for our JV and Varsity. 3 hours from here in Sidney NE. Will be off for most of the rest of the day. Happy storm tracking. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 11 Author Report Share Posted February 11 12z GEFS 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan1117 Posted February 11 Report Share Posted February 11 15 hours ago, jaster220 said: ZZZ Even though things look good for Eastern Nebraska right now... I am not getting my hopes up. Plenty of time for our friend up north (hawkstwelve) to reel another one in, as I don't think that the models are going to be much help until about 24 hours before this second wave is supposed to hit (if that). 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted February 11 Report Share Posted February 11 I don't like this set up. Just like @Money said; it's very hard for back to back waves to produce something significant with the second piece of energy. Time will tell I guess. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 11 Report Share Posted February 11 Wow, the gefs is way se of the op 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted February 11 Report Share Posted February 11 37 minutes ago, Bryan1117 said: Even though things look good for Eastern Nebraska right now... I am not getting my hopes up. Plenty of time for our friend up north (hawkstwelve) to reel another one in, as I don't think that the models are going to be much help until about 24 hours before this second wave is supposed to hit (if that). Yep something will go off the rails here pretty shortly 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Marine Layer Posted February 11 Report Share Posted February 11 1 hour ago, Clinton said: 12z GEFS Colorado gets the most. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 11 Report Share Posted February 11 Euro is gonna look a lot like the Ukie compared to GFS/GEM Digging pretty far south through HR 108. Also looks weaker 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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