2/14 - 2/17 Cutter and Panhandle Hook

[Clinton]

2 storms look to target the western and possibly the central sub next week.  Models for now are in good agreement given the range.

12z EPS for the first cutter.

Will the second and stronger storm target those who have missed out in Nebraska or will Mother Nature throw a slider.

12z EPS

18z GEFS

[CentralNebWeather]

12 minutes ago, Clinton said:

2 storms look to target the western and possibly the central sub next week.  Models for now are in good agreement given the range.

12z EPS for the first cutter.

Will the second and stronger storm target those who have missed out in Nebraska or will Mother Nature throw a slider.

12z EPS

18z GEFS

In St. Paul Nebraska for JV and Varsity basketball for our guys, so not much time to check models. Thanks for starting this thread @Clinton

[jaster220]

ZZZ

[Clinton]

I should have put this in the open for the thread.  This part of the pattern has the potential to produce a major severe weather outbreak across the southern plains.  In the early November version this system produced a devastating tornado outbreak across NE Texas and Eastern Oklahoma.  This was the SPC forecast for 11/4.

 

[Clinton]

18z Euro Control at hr 144.

 

[Stacsh]

1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

ZZZ

It’s over 

[jcwxguy]

Sharp cutoff on gfs from the haves to have nots 

[jcwxguy]

[Bellona]

As much as I'd love to be in the bullseye at this point, I must say I'm happy I'm not. A little drift se would be nice.

[jcwxguy]

[jcwxguy]

Still snowing at this point 

[jcwxguy]

[Andie]

Our local met, who is good, is alerting us to some light snow possible tonight, Accumulating on grass but not on streets.  
I won’t hold my breath but it would be pretty.  Low of 32.  

[Black Hole]

At this point it seems very unlikely this system trends far enough south to result in anything meaningful down my way. Probably will get a decent rain, but even then it doesn't look all that impressive given limited instability. Cold air does spill in but it'll be dry by that point. After that just got to hope the SSW can work some magic. 

[bud2380]

Euro shifted south in eastern Iowa. Clips Iowa city and give CR about 6”. 

[jcwxguy]

52 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Euro shifted south in eastern Iowa. Clips Iowa city and give CR about 6”. 

 

[jcwxguy]

[Tom]

0z Euro Control.

[WinterSquall23]

11 hours ago, jaster220 said:

ZZZ

Winter is Forked for us.   

[CentralNebWeather]

NWS Hastings morning disco:  The latest model data has trended further north with both of these disturbances...bringing the center of both upper level lows across southeastern Nebraska. While the first system continues to be mild for mid-February...with rain expected for the local area and even a little instability just southeast of our borders...the second system is looking a bit more problematic with a strengthening upper level low as it crosses the area (think windy) and increased moisture for increased snowfall amounts behind a strong surface cold front. While still several days out and subject to refinement/change, this set up which is coming into better alignment in global models would result in both impactful snowfall and winds mainly Wednesday afternoon/evening...something which will need to be monitored for changes over the coming days. Not surprisingly, the latest NBM has also has trended significantly upward...bringing greater than a 50 percent chance for 4 inches of snowfall or more to the local area now with this system.

[CentralNebWeather]

 

[CentralNebWeather]

NWS North Platte:   
 

“a secondary, stronger low will cross the Four Corners into Kansas Wednesday into Wednesday night. A strong deformation zone will develop on the northern periphery of this system with a decent threat for precipitation from Kansas into Nebraska. Temperatures will be much colder with this system, so all snow will be the main precipitation type. The latest GFS and Canadian solutions develop a swath of accumulating snow from southwestern through northeastern Nebraska. The EC soln is further south, favoring northwestern Kansas into southeastern Nebraska. With the GFS and Canadian solns indicating a decent threat for snow across the area and the EC just off to the south of the area, will begin to message the midweek threat for snow this morning.”

[mlgamer]

Now we have the usual situation where I need the models to trend south only to see them remain locked in or trend further north. Call it the Cardinal Rule of Topeka Weather.

[Clinton]

6z GEFS not really further south but the northern edge was trimmed down some.  Perhaps a sign the western half of the storm may sink further south.

[Clinton]

The Euro Control continues to trend flatter with the storm.

[Clinton]

Oklahoma and Texas will want to keep close tabs on this.  SPC with a Day 5 risk area over the same areas that were hit hard in early November.  Not trying to be some sort of expert in forecasting severe weather or any weather but I do have a bad feeling about this area next week.  @Andie @Black Hole @Iceresistance @OKwx2k4

[CentralNebWeather]

13z NWS Blend. Looks like an I80 to I70 special. 

[CentralNebWeather]

12z ICON 

[Money]

GFS coming in south and less amped again

Not surprising considering most secondary lows are usually weaker 

[CentralNebWeather]

12z GFS. 

[Money]

Precio field looks so weird on the GFS…

 

Low tracks over Chicago yet the heaviest precip is way up in Green Bay area?

[Money]

GEM with 12-18 from LSE to GB

 

otherwise general 6-12 from NE to Iowa 

[CentralNebWeather]

12z Canadian 

[Money]

GEM has temps of 23 degrees here and sleet..still manages 5-6 inches of snow but that would be something..

[jaster220]

14 hours ago, Stacsh said:

It’s over 

4 hours ago, WinterSquall23 said:

Winter is Forked for us.   

Until 3rd wk of March, when my one and only storm will re-loop. But by then, I expect the "shoulder season special" of 2-3" grass topping event here in the hot box of SEMI. Yawn

This predominantly Plains track for 3 straight winters sucks

[Madtown]

might be my only shot at a true hooker this year

[Clinton]

11 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Until 3rd wk of March, when my one and only storm will re-loop. But by then, I expect the "shoulder season special" of 2-3" grass topping event here in the hot box of SEMI. Yawn

This predominantly Plains track for 3 straight winters sucks

You could sure use some moisture, your area is one of the few that haven't seen improvement with the drought, you don't want to go into the warmer months already being in severe drought.  I hope you at least see decent rainfall from these storms.

[bud2380]

Ukie clearly seeing this one the best...

 

[CentralNebWeather]

Leaving for another road basketball game for our JV and Varsity. 3 hours from here in Sidney NE. Will be off for most of the rest of the day. Happy storm tracking. 

[Clinton]

12z GEFS

[Bryan1117]

15 hours ago, jaster220 said:

ZZZ

Even though things look good for Eastern Nebraska right now... I am not getting my hopes up. Plenty of time for our friend up north (hawkstwelve) to reel another one in, as I don't think that the models are going to be much help until about 24 hours before this second wave is supposed to hit (if that). 

[gabel23]

I don't like this set up. Just like @Money said; it's very hard for back to back waves to produce something significant with the second piece of energy. Time will tell I guess. 

[jcwxguy]

Wow, the gefs is way se of the op

[OmahaSnowFan]

37 minutes ago, Bryan1117 said:

Even though things look good for Eastern Nebraska right now... I am not getting my hopes up. Plenty of time for our friend up north (hawkstwelve) to reel another one in, as I don't think that the models are going to be much help until about 24 hours before this second wave is supposed to hit (if that). 

Yep something will go off the rails here pretty shortly

[Anti Marine Layer]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

12z GEFS

Colorado gets the most.

[Money]

Euro is gonna look a lot like the Ukie compared to GFS/GEM

Digging pretty far south through HR 108. Also looks weaker 

[Money]

Euro is a general 6-10 inch snowfall for most of Iowa and southern WI 

 

6-10 for NE area as well 

[Clinton]

12z Euro

[jaster220]

2 hours ago, Clinton said:

You could sure use some moisture, your area is one of the few that haven't seen improvement with the drought, you don't want to go into the warmer months already being in severe drought.  I hope you at least see decent rainfall from these storms.

Recent storm dopped a decent amount, and January was actually 0.82 AN, so that helped. Dec was normal. So yeah, another slug or two of moisture will help the cause. We do have a long duration lack of moisture, not a harsh noticeable hot-n-dry stretch situation. If you didn't look at local aquifers you'd think all was fine. But drive past a pond back in late October and they were all but dried-up. I am seeing more water in them again, but still no where near where they should be. Just not Texas dry. 

[OttumwaSnomow]

3 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Recent storm dopped a decent amount, and January was actually 0.82 AN, so that helped. Dec was normal. So yeah, another slug or two of moisture will help the cause. We do have a long duration lack of moisture, not a harsh noticeable hot-n-dry stretch situation. If you didn't look at local aquifers you'd think all was fine. But drive past a pond back in late October and they were all but dried-up. I am seeing more water in them again, but still no where near where they should be. Just not Texas dry. 

I was just researching  cocorahs  data and since  sept 1 many sites  near me have had 12 to 16.5 inches of precip. Certainly  several inches above avg. Each of the past 6 months here have been at or above  average precip.  Creeks are running  again, ponds have risen and when not frozen its ridiculously  muddy.  I know we had a 15 inch 2022 deficit  in August  but  currently  we seem to be out of all drought  conditions  however  are still level 2 or 3 on monitor, not sure why? Several systems  have put down .70 to 1.2 inches of precip extremely wet systems  for here in winter. And have had many snow events  under 2.5 inches. In fact we are nearing record  revenue  mostly  from our commercial  accounts  and lots of salting.