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2/14 - 2/17 Cutter and Panhandle Hook


Clinton

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16 minutes ago, Clinton said:

12z EPS rebounded a little from the 6z.  Stronger and further south, still along ways to go and many more solutions.

1676678400-awhR9LiFtao.png

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If that first SN swath is correct, then the 2nd swath paralleling it but 2 zones south would be correct by my experiences. May not return to the stronger solutions like the GFS that always leans warm=cut hard=strongest option, but looks to still be a decent system verbatim even if it maintains what that run is showing. 

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Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 27.5"    Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 2.0 Mar: 8.2 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6"  

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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It’s probably better odds at this point that the snow falls between Omaha and KC.😂😂

I posted an update in my thread asking how much snow do you think you’ll get during what was supposed to be a cold active period for most with ensembles showing beautiful clown maps turning the country into a glacier. I even gave a full 3 weeks from 1/24-2/14.
I’m going to end that period with 1”. 

And now it looks more and more like this storm will give us an inch if we’re lucky. I’m at 8.1” on the year.

 

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42 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

If that first SN swath is correct, then the 2nd swath paralleling it but 2 zones south would be correct by my experiences. May not return to the stronger solutions like the GFS that always leans warm=cut hard=strongest option, but looks to still be a decent system verbatim even if it maintains what that run is showing. 

Strong push of cold air behind the front.  Should make for some good ratios, hope it can come south another 60 to 80 miles.

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image.png.119cd462ec7b3a13c73c80d0d8020e8f.png

I thought this was hilarious

Quote

The boss wants the forecast NOW but the models are garbage, what do I do?! I know, I'll just give every snow chance between a trace and 15 inches about 23% probability! There's literally no way I can be wrong!

 

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There's still time for this system to trend a bit stronger again or continue to trend down to very little.

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season snowfall: 29.3"

'21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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^^ I got no team in the mix- but's that a lame penalty to lose/win a title on. Refs shouldn't decide a tie title game with under 2 minutes left unless it's egregious and obvious. PLenty of holding calls on KC on that drive that were not called - if you think that was Def holding-- just saying-- Refs were terrible this post season.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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7 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

^^ I got no team in the mix- but's that a lame penalty to lose/win a title on. Refs shouldn't decide a tie title game with under 2 minutes left unless it's egregious and obvious. Refs were terrible this post season.

Also for the NBA. Awful calls that have cost games. Not saying this particular call cost the game but just reflecting what you're saying......just bad officiating in general with sports.

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Euro is more robust with snowfall for many (in this region) IF others want snowfall maps where there is little to no snowfall - let them post there own snowfall maps.

sn10_acc-imp.us_c.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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http://proa.accuweather.com/adcgrads/graphic.aspx?mod=ecmwfued_rapid&mt=00&hr=126&map=WI&gv0=C&mv0=null&mv1=null&mv2=sfsfc&gs=mslp_thk_pcp&mv5=999&mv8=scheme:white10snowknocke,kuchera,metar,county:55&cap=Total%20Snow%20Accumulation%20(Kuchera%20Method)&uid=kucheratot_2023021300_whitecounty

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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No snow, but still an interesting forecast coming up. Looks like wind gusts Tuesday to around 50 mph. Very strong winds aloft and some convection moving through will mix some of these winds down. Probably 0.5-1" of rain for NE OK.

My area could thread the needle between the winter and severe weather areas and get basically nothing Wednesday, but there will be interesting weather not far away. 

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14 hours ago, Clinton said:

Strong push of cold air behind the front.  Should make for some good ratios, hope it can come south another 60 to 80 miles.

I'm not hopeful for mby here in DTW-land (LOL @ some of the Euro maps showing snow near here), but moreso for the Traverse region where I will be from the 19th-22nd. It's February and looking and feeling like late March around here (even our meager snow piles are going away thanks to RN and 50's). I wouldn't mind seeing more true winter before another long warm season set in.

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Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 27.5"    Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 2.0 Mar: 8.2 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6"  

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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6 hours ago, Bryan1117 said:

Even the defender on the play (Bradberry) said he committed the penalty (defensive holding) and was just hoping the refs didn't call it. GO CHIEFS!!!!

Philly has a great team and a good chance of getting back.  This was sweet as a Chiefs fan not just because of Mahomes being hurt and still winning but the road to get there was tough.  The AFC has 5 elite level QBs to beat, outside of Hurts the QB play in the NFC is a puddle of crap and it showed with that Philly defense.  0 sacks and 38 points allowed.

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The 00z Euro trending stronger again is a nice surprise.  However, other models are still trending the other way, flattening and stringing out the energy, so it's difficult to buy the Euro.  The energy won't be onshore until Tuesday morning and won't dig into the sw US until Tuesday evening to Wednesday morning.   The first big wave of energy (rain system) won't lift through our region until then as well.  Models need more time to figure this out. 

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season snowfall: 29.3"

'21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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