2/14 - 2/17 Cutter and Panhandle Hook

[Grizzcoat]

12z Euro Kuchera 

 

 

 

 

 

[jaster220]

16 minutes ago, Clinton said:

12z EPS rebounded a little from the 6z.  Stronger and further south, still along ways to go and many more solutions.

If that first SN swath is correct, then the 2nd swath paralleling it but 2 zones south would be correct by my experiences. May not return to the stronger solutions like the GFS that always leans warm=cut hard=strongest option, but looks to still be a decent system verbatim even if it maintains what that run is showing. 

[OmahaSnowFan]

It’s probably better odds at this point that the snow falls between Omaha and KC.

I posted an update in my thread asking how much snow do you think you’ll get during what was supposed to be a cold active period for most with ensembles showing beautiful clown maps turning the country into a glacier. I even gave a full 3 weeks from 1/24-2/14.
I’m going to end that period with 1”. 

And now it looks more and more like this storm will give us an inch if we’re lucky. I’m at 8.1” on the year.

 

[MKEstorm]

46 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

12z Euro Kuchera 

 

 

 

 

 

I like it! Heading in the right direction! I would however take an even further south solution!

[Clinton]

42 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

If that first SN swath is correct, then the 2nd swath paralleling it but 2 zones south would be correct by my experiences. May not return to the stronger solutions like the GFS that always leans warm=cut hard=strongest option, but looks to still be a decent system verbatim even if it maintains what that run is showing. 

Strong push of cold air behind the front.  Should make for some good ratios, hope it can come south another 60 to 80 miles.

[jcwxguy]

[jcwxguy]

[hawkstwelve]

GFS shows FSD getting clipped a bit more by the deformation band on the NW quadrant of the first system. Might be our best shot at scoring something out of this setup.

[gimmesnow]

I thought this was hilarious

Quote

The boss wants the forecast NOW but the models are garbage, what do I do?! I know, I'll just give every snow chance between a trace and 15 inches about 23% probability! There's literally no way I can be wrong!

 

[jcwxguy]

[Clinton]

18z Euro Control is juiced. 

[Iceresistance]

This is trending closer to me with the snow

[jcwxguy]

lol, hope its right 

[jcwxguy]

[jcwxguy]

Nam says meh

[hawkstwelve]

Go Chiefs!!

 

[Madtown]

3 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Go Chiefs!!

 

More like go refs...man what a brutal call.

[jcwxguy]

[jcwxguy]

[jcwxguy]

[Clinton]

What a game!  Southern edge of that snow creeping in on KC!  Way to go Chiefs!

[jcwxguy]

[jcwxguy]

[Money]

Jc apparently thinks there’s only one region affected by this 

[OmahaSnowFan]

When the Icon is the best model for your backyard, you’re losing.

[winterfreak]

What a day! Snow chances increasing? Hmmm…

[The Snowman]

21 minutes ago, Money said:

Jc apparently thinks there’s only one region affected by this 

Well, it makes sense a Nebraska-based member is posting Nebraska-based maps, no?

There's also nothing stopping you from adding maps of different regions.

[Grizzcoat]

ukie-

[Hawkeye]

There's still time for this system to trend a bit stronger again or continue to trend down to very little.

[Bryan1117]

1 hour ago, Madtown said:

More like go refs...man what a brutal call.

Even the defender on the play (Bradberry) said he committed the penalty (defensive holding) and was just hoping the refs didn't call it. GO CHIEFS!!!!

[Grizzcoat]

^^ I got no team in the mix- but's that a lame penalty to lose/win a title on. Refs shouldn't decide a tie title game with under 2 minutes left unless it's egregious and obvious. PLenty of holding calls on KC on that drive that were not called - if you think that was Def holding-- just saying-- Refs were terrible this post season.

[james1976]

7 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

^^ I got no team in the mix- but's that a lame penalty to lose/win a title on. Refs shouldn't decide a tie title game with under 2 minutes left unless it's egregious and obvious. Refs were terrible this post season.

Also for the NBA. Awful calls that have cost games. Not saying this particular call cost the game but just reflecting what you're saying......just bad officiating in general with sports.

[Grizzcoat]

Euro is more robust with snowfall for many (in this region) IF others want snowfall maps where there is little to no snowfall - let them post there own snowfall maps.

[Grizzcoat]

00Z Euro

[MKEstorm]

5 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

00Z Euro

@Grizzcoat, is it possible you could post this map further east into Wisconsin? I don't know where to find this map. It would be much appreciated...thanks!

[Grizzcoat]

http://proa.accuweather.com/adcgrads/graphic.aspx?mod=ecmwfued_rapid&mt=00&hr=126&map=WI&gv0=C&mv0=null&mv1=null&mv2=sfsfc&gs=mslp_thk_pcp&mv5=999&mv8=scheme:white10snowknocke,kuchera,metar,county:55&cap=Total%20Snow%20Accumulation%20(Kuchera%20Method)&uid=kucheratot_2023021300_whitecounty

[MKEstorm]

2 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

http://proa.accuweather.com/adcgrads/graphic.aspx?mod=ecmwfued_rapid&mt=00&hr=126&map=WI&gv0=C&mv0=null&mv1=null&mv2=sfsfc&gs=mslp_thk_pcp&mv5=999&mv8=scheme:white10snowknocke,kuchera,metar,county:55&cap=Total Snow Accumulation (Kuchera Method)&uid=kucheratot_2023021300_whitecounty

Hey Thanks! @Grizzcoat

[Grizzcoat]

[jcwxguy]

Slightly different from AccuWeather 

[Black Hole]

No snow, but still an interesting forecast coming up. Looks like wind gusts Tuesday to around 50 mph. Very strong winds aloft and some convection moving through will mix some of these winds down. Probably 0.5-1" of rain for NE OK.

My area could thread the needle between the winter and severe weather areas and get basically nothing Wednesday, but there will be interesting weather not far away. 

[jcwxguy]

[jcwxguy]

[jcwxguy]

Kinda interesting that both nam and then have 2 small bands

[Grizzcoat]

[Grizzcoat]

[jaster220]

14 hours ago, Clinton said:

Strong push of cold air behind the front.  Should make for some good ratios, hope it can come south another 60 to 80 miles.

I'm not hopeful for mby here in DTW-land (LOL @ some of the Euro maps showing snow near here), but moreso for the Traverse region where I will be from the 19th-22nd. It's February and looking and feeling like late March around here (even our meager snow piles are going away thanks to RN and 50's). I wouldn't mind seeing more true winter before another long warm season set in.

[Clinton]

6 hours ago, Bryan1117 said:

Even the defender on the play (Bradberry) said he committed the penalty (defensive holding) and was just hoping the refs didn't call it. GO CHIEFS!!!!

Philly has a great team and a good chance of getting back.  This was sweet as a Chiefs fan not just because of Mahomes being hurt and still winning but the road to get there was tough.  The AFC has 5 elite level QBs to beat, outside of Hurts the QB play in the NFC is a puddle of crap and it showed with that Philly defense.  0 sacks and 38 points allowed.

[Hawkeye]

The 00z Euro trending stronger again is a nice surprise.  However, other models are still trending the other way, flattening and stringing out the energy, so it's difficult to buy the Euro.  The energy won't be onshore until Tuesday morning and won't dig into the sw US until Tuesday evening to Wednesday morning.   The first big wave of energy (rain system) won't lift through our region until then as well.  Models need more time to figure this out. 

[GDR]

Outside of bills and bengals AFC is trash and AFC West is junk so KC has a walk in the park every year.

[Clinton]

6z Euro