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2/14 - 2/17 Cutter and Panhandle Hook


Clinton

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22 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Philly has a great team and a good chance of getting back.  This was sweet as a Chiefs fan not just because of Mahomes being hurt and still winning but the road to get there was tough.  The AFC has 5 elite level QBs to beat, outside of Hurts the QB play in the NFC is a puddle of crap and it showed with that Philly defense.  0 sacks and 38 points allowed.

Ya, what they heck happened to the dominant Eagles "D"?  It was non existent...Mahomes had so much time countless of times.  In fact, the last drive he ran for 26 yards and basically set up the winning drive at the 18 yard line.  Even if that holding call didn't happen, the odds of making a FG that close is high.  Congrats on the win!  It was a close battle and an entertaining game for sure.

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20 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

@Andie is still under the Severe Weather threat for Wednesday.

Duck and cover. 👍 

Hope we avoid the hail and tornadoes.  Too early to start that stuff.   

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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0z EPS...some decent members showing up for N IL...kinda interesting trends to see the UKIE come SE along with the GEFS...if anything, ORD could score a couple inches to stat pad the snow stats and not make this a snowless FEB.

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The 12z RDPS has trended further toward nothing.  I have to think the Euro cannot remain as robust as it is and it will trend weaker.

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season snowfall: 29.3"

'21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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1 hour ago, Hawkeye said:

The 12z RDPS has trended further toward nothing.  I have to think the Euro cannot remain as robust as it is and it will trend weaker.

RGEM and NAM trending towards nothing too, but at the end of their forecast range. I trust the Euro a lot more, though, at this range.

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18 minutes ago, gimmesnow said:

RGEM and NAM trending towards nothing too, but at the end of their forecast range. I trust the Euro a lot more, though, at this range.

RGEM and RDPS are the same thing.  RDPS/GDPS are the new names for Canada's models.

season snowfall: 29.3"

'21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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So weird, how the only two models now showing a significant storm, are the Euro and the GFS.  Which is what drives the majority of our forecasts in the mid range.  So we'll see how this shakes out.  

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Season Snowfall: ~ 20.00"

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2 hours ago, jcwxguy said:

snku_acc-imp.us_c.png

32 minutes ago, gimmesnow said:

RGEM and NAM trending towards nothing too, but at the end of their forecast range. I trust the Euro a lot more, though, at this range.

Long NAM range or not, it's very concerning to see the SR models unexcited for this set-up. NAM was first and only model to sniff the failed Christmas system. Globals were still flashing dbl digits here while the NAM was like "meh"

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Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 27.5"    Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 2.0 Mar: 8.2 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6"  

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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8 minutes ago, Tom said:

12z GEFS..weak sauce which is sliding the mean SE...

image.png

Yikes!  Now, I'm REALLY not buying the stronger op models.

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season snowfall: 29.3"

'21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Speaking with Lezak this morning, he said if the ULL is strong, it likely cuts harder and KC gets dry slotted with little accumulation. Bigger snows will happen in NEB and Iowa...but, if it shears out, it will go SE more and favor KC to get accumulating snow, not a big storm, but a 1-3 inch snow in 20-22 degree air which will be quite the change to all other snows at 32-33 this winter. 

So, here in KC, I guess I'm rooting for a weaker storm, I don't think I have ever wished for that. LOL

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The Euro cave has begun.  The 12z run is its weakest so far, a big drop from 00z.

image.thumb.png.679c27b3c6756548e6b3c48cddd84ea6.png

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season snowfall: 29.3"

'21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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2 minutes ago, MIKEKC said:

Speaking with Lezak this morning, he said if the ULL is strong, it likely cuts harder and KC gets dry slotted with little accumulation. Bigger snows will happen in NEB and Iowa...but, if it shears out, it will go SE more and favor KC to get accumulating snow, not a big storm, but a 1-3 inch snow...

This is what the models have been showing all along.

I'd rather the guys up north have a stronger storm to enjoy rather than suffer through another 1" nuisance snowfall. Bring on Spring and let's be done with this garbage winter (here anyway).

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  • 22-23 Total Snowfall: 6.1" as of 03/18/23. 37% of normal to date.
  • King of the 1" snowfalls (0.6", 1.5", 1.0", 1.0, 1.1", 0.4", 0.2", 0.3")
  • Last snowfall >6": Feb 4, 2014: 13" (nine years and counting)
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DMX with a  rather lame disco. Can tell it's a relative newbie.

Cold air advection increase Wednesday behind the system as
northwesterly winds take over. As the Tuesday system exits our next
system developing over the southwest will again lift into the
midwest. Given the colder temperatures in place, this time
precipitation will fall in the form of snow. While there is decent
agreement in the track of the system, differences remain between
the GFS and Euro suites. Both GFS and Euro deterministic runs are
more aggressive in snow totals than their ensemble mean
counterparts, and the GFS remains further southeast than the more
consistent track of the euro solution. Given the cold thermal
profiles and a period of strong omega within the DGZ, expect there
could be a period with higher snowfall rates and SLRs as snow
falls late Wednesday night into Thursday. While totals remain a
little uncertain, confidence is increasing in at least some impact
to travel by Thursday morning in central to southern Iowa.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Ugh! The last two runs of the Euro and now the 18z GFS have introduced mixed precipitation in my area for the first part of the storm, thus lowering snow totals! But the low is well south in Indiana and the 540 line is just south…hmmm! Hopefully these models adjust to the conditions 😏

 

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Is it Spring?!

Highs 70-75  Mon-Tues    Lows in the mid 40's. 

Rain the next several days, some storms heavy, high winds/gusts. 

The entire pattern looks like Spring with a strong SW inflow. 

<sigh> ...Winter's O-ver.

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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We have to keep in mind that winds are forecasted to be 40 mph plus. With a drier snow, it should easily blow around. Feels like that part of the storm hasn’t been talked about enough by forecasters. Wednesday afternoon to Thursday morning has the chance to get pretty dicey. We have Parent/Teacher Conferences from 2-6 pm on Wednesday. Gosh it would be too bad if they were cancelled by weather. 😂

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1 hour ago, WinterSquall23 said:

Felt this was appropriate. 

As in Mean to SE Mi . 

22FC0F86-FE0E-4869-A2B7-33F171D67508.png

Was never our storm. But looks like northern SEMI will get a bit.

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Winter 2022-23 Snow Total = 27.5"    Largest Storm: 7.5" (1/25)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 5.2 Jan: 11.1 Feb: 2.0 Mar: 8.2 Apr: 0.0

Annual avg for mby = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2021-22 = 35.6"  

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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