December 2018 Observations and Discussion

[Stacsh]

Currently 43 and sunny.  Feels good man.  

[Stormhunter87]

So Omaha the last few years has had these storms pop up right around Christmas it creates chaos every time

[Hawkeye]

It's about 50 degrees over here this afternoon, and with no wind.  It's quite nice.

[james1976]

Euro did well with this warm up. It was showing 40s and 50s last week and here we are.

[Grizzcoat]

Euro did well with this warm up. It was showing 40s and 50s last week and here we are.

Yep-

and if the Euro weeklies are anywhere near correct- WB's forecast (amongst others) for the winter is going to have to be epic cold in late FEB to come even close. I don't get into this "pre winter" forecasts with ocean temps and all, because it all changes. What's certain is that we had one , if not the biggest , EL Nino's in 2015'. Until the pac ocean cools down enough, we are going to see the results, though in a muted fashion. IMO- we are still seeing the results of the Super Nino. I really hate saying this but gut feeling has the rest of the winter (compared to avg) to NOV- as a wash. Still storms? Yes? Still Cold? Yes? But Nothing like NOV had and I think the precip is cut way down esp W and NW. The E may still do OK.  

[Stormhunter87]

18z GFS has the storm now but really north

[Niko]

Currently, cloudy and chilly w temps in the 30s.

[Grizzcoat]

Let's not get all excited about this so called "change". Before anything changes we need S CAN and N.DK and S.DK and MN to get a snowcover. Sure ,some snow can fall further S, but without that snow cover to N , any storms that come from the SW will wrap in warm air. My .02. This pattern remids me of 04-05'/ -- potential of cold- but not snow/ precip. A big bust is looming I think. The cold doesn't jive with the precip. Hope I'am wrong.. I think any storm will be too warm (rain) in the extended. For many.

[Niko]

NOAA:

 

The big question then turns to
precipitation type... Inherited top-down methodology produces a rain
to rain/snow mix across SE MI late Thursday, transitioning to a
rain/snow to snow solution early Friday morning as lows dip to or
just above the 32 degree mark. Highs in the upper-30s to lower 40s
would aid in transitioning the precipitation back to a rain/wintry
mix solution by the afternoon. GEFS ensemble solutions also trend
towards a rain to wintry mix solution for the bulk of the event as
does latest ECMWF run. Thus at this time will not enhance wording on
potential winter implications. Will need to continue to monitor
additional model runs as a profile/surface thermal adjustment of -2
to -3C would create winter weather impacts with this system.

 

Things could still change........

[Niko]

It's about 50 degrees over here this afternoon, and with no wind.  It's quite nice.

I am actually getting used to this weather. 50 was my high yesterday and other spots were in the 50s.

[snowstorm83]

Let's not get all excited about this so called "change". Before anything changes we need S CAN and N.DK and S.DK and MN to get a snowcover. Sure ,some snow can fall further S, but without that snow cover to N , any storms that come from the SW will wrap in warm air. My .02. This pattern remids me of 04-05'/ -- potential of cold- but not snow/ precip. A big bust is looming I think. The cold doesn't jive with the precip. Hope I'am wrong.. I think any storm will be too warm (rain) in the extended. For many.

SE NE did manage one big storm/blizzard that year. Extreme cold followed and it was on the ground for a while, but other than that it was an uneventful winter. I also think it's the storm where that methed out couple got lost and died.

[jaster220]

12z Euro joined the GFS in deepening the OHV system, and wraps in a bit more of the much needed cold air. I don't have any paid site data tho to see what it's painting in the snowfall dept. Nonetheless, this certainly has more going for it than today's system did from this range so we'll see..

 

[Niko]

My forecast next week from NOAA:

 

Thursday Night

Rain and snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 34.

Friday

Rain and snow. Cloudy, with a high near 39.

Friday Night

Snow. Cloudy, with a low around 28.

[Niko]

12z Euro joined the GFS in deepening the OHV system, and wraps in a bit more of the much needed cold air. I don't have any paid site data tho to see what it's painting in the snowfall dept. Nonetheless, this certainly has more going for it than today's system did from this range so we'll see..

 

Screenshot_2018-12-16 pivotalweather - ECMWF - MSLP for Fri 2018-12-21 12z.png

WOW!

 

Isobars are closely together...looks like a wind system as well.

[jaster220]

 

My forecast next week from NOAA:

 

Thursday Night

Rain and snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 34.

Friday

Rain and snow. Cloudy, with a high near 39.

Friday Night

Snow. Cloudy, with a low around 28.

 

 

Hopefully this gets it's act together and trends towards a mostly snow event. I cannot buy into the strong SLP until I see it going that way. We don't get strong storms that are a mix, just never happens around these parts.

[jaster220]

WOW!

 

Attm, the further east track would likely favor SEMI vs SWMI. It's strengthening and turning more due north from that position, putting your part of The Mitt in a good position. Just a long ways to go with this, but at least something to track, eh?

[Niko]

Attm, the further east track would likely favor SEMI vs SWMI. It's strengthening and turning more due north from that position, putting your part of The Mitt in a good position. Just a long ways to go with this, but at least something to track, eh?

Absolutely.....hopefully, we can score something big.

 

NOAA is already mentioning the snow possibility.

[Money]

Attm, the further east track would likely favor SEMI vs SWMI. It's strengthening and turning more due north from that position, putting your part of The Mitt in a good position. Just a long ways to go with this, but at least something to track, eh?

Zero snow at all with this on the euro

[jaster220]

Zero snow at all with this on the euro

 

  Thx. Why am I not surprised. The month of great tracks and zero cold to work with...sigh at rolling the dice with Nino's

 

These 850's on the 24th bring a brief window of Delta-T's that could get some LES going. Duration is the main concern.

 

[jaster220]

Zero snow at all with this on the euro

 

Thinking about this more, I doubt this will likely have any snow SW of here. SMI may be the lowest LAT where there's at least a chance cold can get in and make a difference. But, ofc we fight the GL's warmth dome early season so that's a strike against. Even the Nov 25-26 bliz was showing nada for SMI at this range. The SN to RN scenario really solidified from about h48 out iirc.

 

GRR-

 

Additional energy diving into the trough

will help to eject waves toward the NE, and bring waves of pcpn to

the area. Much of this should be rain from Wed into Fri. At some

point as the system departs, colder air will start to be drawn into

the area. This could cause the rain to change over to snow. A lot of

uncertainty exists with regard to the details, so we will fine tune

the forecast as we approach later next week.

[Tom]

A look back at Dec '00 in Chicago...

 

[St Paul Storm]

^ best month of my life. That’s what sucked me into being a fan of winter weather.

[Tom]

^ best month of my life. That’s what sucked me into being a fan of winter weather.

Man, that was the month where I went to college down @ SIUC in Carbondale, IL...wish I had experienced something like that!  3 majors in a month???  Where do I sign?

[Niko]

Freezing fog likely tanite IMBY. Temps falling in the upper 20s. Man, seems like I've been in the haze, fog, dampness, mist in the air now for weeks. Very stable air around, thanks to a HP to my north. Breezes have been at 5mph or less each n everyday.

[jaster220]

Man, that was the month where I went to college down @ SIUC in Carbondale, IL...wish I had experienced something like that!  3 majors in a month???  Where do I sign?

 

Yep, wish I had a time-loop of that month for here. 50-60" fell. 15-18" bliz on the 11th, followed by a 6-10" storm six days later, and tons of other days with decent snows bringing snow depths to 28" by month's end. Ofc, I wasn't here then either, but did pass thru sometime in Feb iirc, and the snow banks along the freeway were still massive in the midst of a rainy thaw period.

[jaster220]

Freezing fog likely tanite IMBY. Temps falling in the upper 20s. Man, seems like I've been in the haze, fog, dampness, mist in the air now for weeks. Very stable air around, thanks to a HP to my north. Breezes have been at 5mph or less each n everyday.

 

Was a beautiful late afternoon over here with blue skies just to our west and the sun came out briefly creating a super red sunset. Indication of the torching expected tomorrow. Golfing again??

[jaster220]

A look back at Dec '00 in Chicago...

 

 

Snow OTG right after the big bliz

 

 

At month's end

 

 

Look at IOWA buried even deeper than here! Just an incredible 3 wk stretch

[Niko]

Was a beautiful late afternoon over here with blue skies just to our west and the sun came out briefly creating a super red sunset. Indication of the torching expected tomorrow. Golfing again??

Most likely.

 

Had a red sunset too in the far distance. It was a picture postcard.

 

FWIW: latest GFS 384 Hr looks sweet for my area.

[jaster220]

Most likely.

 

Had a red sunset too in the far distance. It was a picture postcard.

 

FWIW: latest GFS 384 Hr looks sweet for my area.

 

Hadn't looked yet. Nice. In the meantime, while we wait for real winter to return. THIS is what a superstorm is like. Just incredible for where it happened. February 1899 stuff right here:

 

[jaster220]

Nice trend from the 0z GFS. A near-miss by one county with the 8" jackpot. LOL, verbatim this map is an exact result of 11-26 when Marshall had 4.5" and half a county north and/or west scored 7-10

 

[jaster220]

..and for all you wet blanket throwers, yes I know it's not Kuchera and includes pingers.   

[jaster220]

0z FV3 hates us with storm #1, but gives us all a nice hit on Christmas

 

[jaster220]

0z GFS Kuchera says 2-4". Need to get the solid swath NE of The Mitt up in Ontario to start further SW over us. Not sure we can pull it off tho as said, due to the GL's fighting the influx of CAA. Not a bad place to start tho. 5 days out yet.

 

[jaster220]

Oh, and my comment earlier needs some clarifying. I didn't mean there would be zero snow SW of Michigan, but wrt 6+ amounts I think it's from #puremichigan on north. Just a gut thing, and I'd gladly bust low.

[OKwx2k4]

Hadn't looked yet. Nice. In the meantime, while we wait for real winter to return. THIS is what a superstorm is like. Just incredible for where it happened. February 1899 stuff right here:

 

I love that video. He is a mix of blown away, calm, sad and being weather nerded out all at the same time.

[Tom]

As daylight begins to emerge, it's yet another morning with heavy Frost along with some Freezing Fog (26F).  With all the foggy mornings this past week or so, does that folklore still stand in the Winter to expect wintry weather in the coming week (s)?  

[Tom]

After analyzing the 00z EPS, an anticipated trend towards more blocking across E Canada and Hudson Bay has now evolved.  This, my friends, is a KEY element for our sub.  Here's why, if we are to believe the EPO should maintain in a (+) state through the rest of this month, it'll allow PAC systems to target the west coast and take on a more west/east storm track.  This blocking signal across central Canada is huge as it'll allow deep cold to build up and "seed" cold into the northern tier of the lower 48.  All I'm saying, is this blocking needs to continue to show strength going forward bc with ut it and +EPO, you can forget about seeing any wintry weather. 

 

According to the LRC, by the time the Winter Solstice system tracks up along the eastern CONUS into SE Canada on the 22nd, heights should rise near Greenland and the Hudson Bay/Archipelago region.  It happened in the previous cycle and should last for about 7-10 days before we see the Polar Vortex establish itself in this same region.  By then, we will be approaching NYE and the opening week of Jan '19 when we will be in an entirely different pattern we are currently experiencing.

 

Are there signals for a White Christmas???  I'm encouraged to see the 00z EPS now trending more towards the GEFS have been for a sneaky Christmas Eve/Day system coming out of the central Rockies.  Albeit not a big storm system, someone across the Plains into the MW/Lower Lakes may see some snow out of this opportunity.  Post Christmas, this is when the action really turns into high gear and a very amped up STJ churns up and the GOM is open for Biz.  The extended pattern is ripe for some lucky peeps on here to get hit by a storm train.  I don't think the S Plains get in on the action till we flip the calendar into January.  Lot's on the table to close out this month folks.  Hang in there snow enthusiasts!

[Tom]

I'll show you a technique I use that provides a clue where to see a future storm track. Of late, why have all the systems seemingly taken a southern storm track??? I believe the answer relies a lot to do with the 10mb heights. It has been an odd last week or so seeing strong southern stream storm tracks even though there hasn't really been a lot of high lat blocking. We have seen a +AO and a neutral NAO and 2 rather powerful storms have tracked across the S Plains and SE in recent days.

 

I have studied this particular technique I'm about to show you and it may provide us a clue of what to expect heading into Christmas week. Check out the massive heights that have risen across N Canada as of today which has suppressed the pattern way south. Pay attention to the blues or negative heights across the Gulf states. This has merely been the storm track of late and it will begin to shift over the coming week.

 

Now, lets fast forward towards Christmas Eve and notice the tongue of blue coming off the PAC into Cali/West Coast and traversing the entire CONUS with an ideal coast-to-coast storm track. The amount of heights rising across the North Pole at 10mb leads me to believe models should trend stronger with blocking as we move along. The blocking will eventually propagate downward into the lower levels of the atmosphere later next week. Just wanted to throw out some ideas I've found valuable to me when trying to figure out the long range pattern.

[Niko]

Hadn't looked yet. Nice. In the meantime, while we wait for real winter to return. THIS is what a superstorm is like. Just incredible for where it happened. February 1899 stuff right here:

 

Great find buddy! Absoulutely...."The Superstorm of 93" is clearly on the back of my head, even after all these years. Back then in NYC, I remember all my classes at the University were canceled. It was a heavy snowmaker w ova a ft of snow in the greater NYC Metro area, especially, in northern Queens where I lived (received 14.5"). Great storm and a share the wealth storm as well. A lot benefited from this major Winterstorm.

[Niko]

Currently heavy frost once again. Temps are in the upper 20s. Lets look at the bright side, at least it looks outside like snow has fallen.