December 2018 Observations and Discussion

[Andie]

Gorgeous evening outside w crystal clear skies and temps are relatively mild for this time of the year, in the upper 30s.

Grab a gawk at that comet while you can!

[Stormy]

Everyone likes to talk about December 2000, but I don't remember much.  I know Cedar Rapids didn't come anywhere close to the 34" Waterloo received.  Unfortunately, I can't find any information about Cedar Rapids' Dec 2000 snow total, or any Iowa snow total maps.

I remember that month quite well. It was awfully cold which I didn't like to well. I looked at my diary and saw that the first larger snow began later on the 10th of December 2000 with numerous snows in the last half of that month. My monthly total was a little over 30"! A lot for my area. I wrote that it was Iowa's second coldest December on record with 10.3° December average temp. I also noted that our statewide average snowfall was 25" making it the snowiest of any month on record. Must have read it somewhere, but may not be official.

[Stormy]

Yesterday I finished setting up my new Davis wx station. I have two of those stations now, but plan to store the old one that I bought in 2001 & keep it for backup in case a bad storm or something damages the other one. I mounted a wireless anemometer on a windmill approx. 40' up so wind measurements should be more accurate than the old one at 5' off the surface! Love those stations. I set the console data logger to record a reading of all wx variables for every 30 minutes which I download to a laptop every so often.

[Stormy]

Some weird looking bullseyes aside, this gives a general idea...

map_btd.png

Thanks for that map. It looks about right for my area of se. Ia.

[Stormy]

Hadn't looked yet. Nice. In the meantime, while we wait for real winter to return. THIS is what a superstorm is like. Just incredible for where it happened. February 1899 stuff right here:

 

I still remember hearing about that storm way back then! But the main thing I remember about that year is the record rainfall and flooding in Ia. It was awesome watching storm after thunderstorm all summer as a wx nerd ! It was awful for people along the rivers though!!! I ended up with a little over 63" of precipitation for that year which still stands as my own record

[Grizzcoat]

If long range modeling is to be believed (EPS,GFS) - it seems almost like an early Fall / late Spring pattern with cutters cutting way to far W to benefit most of us on here. Would be a shame to waste this upcoming pattern on wide spread rain for most of us with snows back in the High Plains and than revert back to a cold / dry NW flow. Just a concern - that is all.

[Tom]

The SER signal off all the models is very strong Christmas week as a La Nina type pattern takes shape with troughs targeting the West/SW and ejecting out into the central Plains.  The big storm I originally thought would poise a threat for Christmas is now starting to show a clearer trend to take shape just after Christmas.  There is a big signal among the ensembles for a large scale storm to drop into the 4 corners and eject out into the Plains and cut up towards the GL's which happened back in LRC cycle #1.  Blocking is trending stronger on the 00z EPS and slowly veering away from a trough hugging NW NAMER and replacing it with more ridging in the NE PAC.  00z EPS continues to paint a snowy trend across the Plains towards the GL's, esp from NE up towards MN/WI.  There is a sharp cut-off to the south which is worrisome and likely will create a sharp boundary somewhere across the MW/Lower Lakes region.  I knew there would be a sharp boundary somewhere and we'll have to see where this sets up shop bc it will be critical to those who will see snow vs rain/mix.  

 

The Blocking across Canada will end up being the big key element where the post Christmas storm tracks.  I think this is the next big ticket system we will track and then 3-4 days later I'm expecting to see a large NYE/New Year's Day storm.  BSR and the LRC both have these storms on my calendar.

[Stacsh]

LOL. Temp forecast challenge score for KRMY: Ma Nature-2, GRR-0

 

Another mega-bust today. Grid had us torching @ 44F but courtesy of the fog hanging in here well past noon, barely touched 40F for like 15 min's. When the sun did come out after 1 pm it was a very fine few hours into dusk.

 

I was surprised yesterday to still see a 6" deep drift out in the farms NW of town. This is wide open to the sun every day. Guess there was more blowing and drifting than I thought back when the storm hit. Mostly just piles around town tho now. Last of that melted at my place a day or so ago.

 

To be fair I hit 45F here with full sun most of the day.  The cutoff from the fog/low clouds was just NW of GRR.  

[CentralNebWeather]

The SER signal off all the models is very strong Christmas week as a La Nina type pattern takes shape with troughs targeting the West/SW and ejecting out into the central Plains.  The big storm I originally thought would poise a threat for Christmas is now starting to show a clearer trend to take shape just after Christmas.  There is a big signal among the ensembles for a large scale storm to drop into the 4 corners and eject out into the Plains and cut up towards the GL's which happened back in LRC cycle #1.  Blocking is trending stronger on the 00z EPS and slowly veering away from a trough hugging NW NAMER and replacing it with more ridging in the NE PAC.  00z EPS continues to paint a snowy trend across the Plains towards the GL's, esp from NE up towards MN/WI.  There is a sharp cut-off to the south which is worrisome and likely will create a sharp boundary somewhere across the MW/Lower Lakes region.  I knew there would be a sharp boundary somewhere and we'll have to see where this sets up shop bc it will be critical to those who will see snow vs rain/mix.  

 

The Blocking across Canada will end up being the big key element where the post Christmas storm tracks.  I think this is the next big ticket system we will track and then 3-4 days later I'm expecting to see a large NYE/New Year's Day storm.  BSR and the LRC both have these storms on my calendar.

Here is NWS Hastings Disco from this morning, talking about a storm next week but lacking cold air.

 

LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)

Issued at 308 AM CST Mon Dec 17 2018

 

Pattern: The MJO is currently moving thru the phases that result

in warm wx here in the Cntrl Plns. It is currently in phase 4 and

fcst to go into phase 5. Interestingly...phase 5 favors low pres

moving thru the Desert SW and that`s what we`re seeing about 8-10

days out in the global mdls. The bottom line is there is no real

cold air in sight for at least the next 2 wks. Given how temps

favored colder in Oct-Nov and early Dec...it`s understandable that

we`d be compensated on the warm side for a while.

[Niko]

This system by weeks end is taking a perfect track to my E and I am still expected to get a cold rain w temps in the upper 30s. Some flurries on the back end w colder temps following the storm. Getting rain w a great storm track in mid Dec simply tells you the pattern is awful and will not get better throughout the entire month of Dec. The 20s I had for highs later this month are replaced by 30s, so even the colder air has modified for down the road. This month is a waste. On to January.

[Niko]

Currently at 29F w mostly cloudy skies.

[BrianJK]

I feel a bit like deja vu from last year (around KC anyway) where there always seemed to be something 10 days off, but it never materialized. Hopefully not ...

Yep. Just a couple more weeks, and couple more, and a couple more... seen this before

[GDR]

Around the first week of January could get interesting!

[CentralNebWeather]

12Z GFS gets interesting in the Plains around the 27th.  Yes it is 10 days away, unfortunately.  I don't assume any storm is a sure thing, just looking at the trends.  I've made the mistake in the past of looking at 1 model run, now I look at multiple runs daily and follow many on here for their take.

[Grizzcoat]

IMO- you will continue to see the system around the 26th-28th continue to cut further and further to the W and N because of too much blocking. Much like the CMC has at HR240. It also makes some sense since much of the Daktoa's have zilch for snow on the ground and a general rule of thumb is that the Dakota's get their snow before most of us-- generally speaking. This is why I referred to in earlier post that we are going into a more SPring/ Fall "typical" pattern. There is just not enough sustained cold air available (yet) with proper blocking to lay down a large expance of snow that would make a majoirty on here pleased. 

[Stormhunter87]

The models are all over the place with the storm on the 26-28th but the fv3 makes it look like a monster. There is a ton of moisture with it.

[Tom]

12z Euro now showing 2 separate waves tracking across NE into the GL's.  1st one is rather weak and its primarily a light snow from NE/IA/N IL/WI/MI...1-2" at best...the second wave is now showing up on Christmas Eve/Day across the same areas.  The larger of the 3 systems is digging into SoCal on Christmas Day.  Encouraged to see these waves showing up on the Euro now instead of just the FV3-GFS and GFS.

[Hawkeye]

I would gladly take this morning's FV3 run... a massive post-xmas storm that gives a big soaker to many of us, but lays down snow to the nw, then a massive New Year's blizzard that tracks farther southeast.

[CentralNebWeather]

I would gladly take this morning's FV3 run... a massive post-xmas storm that gives a big soaker to many of us, but lays down snow to the nw, then a massive New Year's blizzard that tracks farther southeast.

They look encouraging.

[james1976]

12z Euro now showing 2 separate waves tracking across NE into the GL's. 1st one is rather weak and its primarily a light snow from NE/IA/N IL/WI/MI...1-2" at best...the second wave is now showing up on Christmas Eve/Day across the same areas. The larger of the 3 systems is digging into SoCal on Christmas Day. Encouraged to see these waves showing up on the Euro now instead of just the FV3-GFS and GFS.

What day(s) is it showing the 1st wave?

[Grizzcoat]

From PP at Accu Wx FWIW- (he seems to be more reserved and guarded than others.) He also agrees that sustained cold is going to be tough to get a wide spread snow event S of I-90, for sure I80 is what I read. Especially East of I-35. Most of us basically need a lot to go for us for widespread snowfall in the next 6-14. It can happen, but not ( IMO) seeing it at this juncture. Basically waiting on "real" winter to show for most of us.

 

 

Looking at the PNA and EPO, this is turning out less impressive later in the month for sustained cold in the central or eastern United States. The negative PNA would suggest a "MEAN" upper trough in the Rockies, not in the East, the end of the month. Passing upper troughs will move through the East, associated with a return stormy pattern. There will be some cold shots following storms but nothing sustainable. In addition, the EPO was predicted to be strongly negative in the 11- to 15-day period from last Thursday and Friday, now it is positive. The upper ridge is weaker over the Northeast Pacific, more progressive waves across the U.S. can lead to storms but short periods of cold and limited area (mainly north, not deep into the south)

If the MJO nearly stalls and possibly heads back to phase 3 and 4, over the Indian Ocean, then it has been researched that warmth rises in the upper levels of the atmosphere toward the polar region from the Asian side, leading to sudden stratospheric warming events and polar disruptions. One SSW is anticipated between Dec. 26-30 and a lag time of 10-14 days usually occurs before impacts in eastern North American mid-latitudes (but not always). The NCEP operational is the "only" model showing this. The European ensemble and the Canadian and GFS ensembles all show a strong, slower, progression of the MJO wave to colder phases.

 

Patience again seems to be the key. Just wait 2 weeks as spoken....

[Tom]

What day(s) is it showing the 1st wave?

23rd

[CentralNebWeather]

12Z FV3 GFS is crazy.  Probably overdone, but GFS has been fairly bullish on storminess primarily after the 26th of December.  Will they be proven correct?  The Euro is starting to show some signs as Tom posted earlier.  Local mets. around here only mention a storm in the 8-10 day period which puts us around the 27th.  Does it cut northwest across western Nebraska and the Dakotas or does it come up over KC or will there be a storm at all?  Will be fun to watch this at home as my wife and I are teachers and we start Christmas vacation this Friday the 21st and the kids have off until Jan. 7th.  Teachers go back for work days Jan. 3-4.  

[Stacsh]

12Z FV3 GFS is crazy.  Probably overdone, but GFS has been fairly bullish on storminess primarily after the 26th of December.  Will they be proven correct?  The Euro is starting to show some signs as Tom posted earlier.  Local mets. around here only mention a storm in the 8-10 day period which puts us around the 27th.  Does it cut northwest across western Nebraska and the Dakotas or does it come up over KC or will there be a storm at all?  Will be fun to watch this at home as my wife and I are teachers and we start Christmas vacation this Friday the 21st and the kids have off until Jan. 7th.  Teachers go back for work days Jan. 3-4.  

 

If it does cut, it has 50s (60s??)pushing into the SMI on the GFS.  Hopefully that is not the case, but it could be the storm that turns the pattern around as we head into January.  

 

Side note: not sure the year and maybe some Michigan peeps can help me out but around 8-10 years ago we had temps well into the 50's on NYE.  

 

Edit:  found it.  2010 Dec 31st GRR had a max temp of 55.  

[james1976]

23rd

Only 6 days out at least lol

[GDR]

[Grizzcoat]

Book it. and remember and quote this--- "Rain / T-Storm event for areas east of 95W longitude come just after the 25th".   IF NOT FURTHER WEST FOR THE RAIN. North of 45 lat  has good chance of mix/snow and E of I-35 at the same latitude.   

[GDR]

I placed my house on it so you better be right

[Tom]

@ BrianJK, ORD has had officially 0.3" of snow so far this month...

 

Meantime, the Euro weeklies have completely flipped back towards a colder finish to the month and a frigid looking January with extensive blocking along with a NW NAMER ridge.  

[jaster220]

I would gladly take this morning's FV3 run... a massive post-xmas storm that gives a big soaker to many of us, but lays down snow to the nw, then a massive New Year's blizzard that tracks farther southeast.

 

If only the "ideal scenario" usually won out

[Minny_Weather]

Not a big fan of the new Euro weeklies run. Has a good pattern the week between Christmas and New Years (when I'm traveling all over the place... Yayyyyyyy), then back to your regularly scheduled dry NW flow pattern.

[Tom]

Not a big fan of the new Euro weeklies run. Has a good pattern the week between Christmas and New Years (when I'm traveling all over the place... Yayyyyyyy), then back to your regularly scheduled dry NW flow pattern.

If you haven’t noticed, the model is almost always dry in the extended in our sub except for the west coast or Gulf coast/East Coast. For instance, this coming active period was not showing AN precip till about 3 or 4 runs ago when it began showing the signals. Jan is going to have it’s active periods for some of us, but not all.

[Tom]

On this day, ORD hit a record high of 60F in 1977, during a very cold winter. Jan-Mar that year (also a Niño year) was brutal and active.

[Grizzcoat]

Dec 15th, 2002 was 59F in DSM. Very similar to this year. ( Many have this as a analog year) Max Record. I dug my mail box post hole. The winter was nothing other than one snow storm in mid Feb. I see similar trends to 02-03'. Not exactly a good winter

[OKwx2k4]

I don't believe in snow anymore.

Come on winter. Get going again...

[Tom]

The Euro weeklies have a dry bias in the extended.  They didn't see the wet period that is forthcoming (24th-31st) 4 runs ago, 3 runs ago, and you can even argue 2 runs ago.  Only till about 1 week out from today, they began sniffing out this active pattern but if you had the knowledge of the LRC, it painted a different story across our sub.  See the images below of how dry they usually are across the central CONUS and typically have the activity along the west and south/east coasts.

[Tom]

I don't believe in snow anymore.

Come on winter. Get going again...

January is your month down there for winter to begin...

 

[westMJim]

We are on our way home from our latest cruise. We had a very good time had a lot of food to eat and seen some very good comedy shows. The weather was just great very warm no rain and the seas were very calm. The temperatures were in the mid 80’s every day. We are now in Charleston WV we left Fort Lauderdale yesterday with sunny skies and a temperature of 77° it stayed in the 70’s to the Cape Canaveral area where it dropped into the upper 60’s with partly cloudy skies that looked and felted like the UP in the summer time. On today trip it was sunny and warm but there were parking lot snow piles in North Carolina. The person in Arbys we stopped at said they had 11” of snow.  Here is Charleston it is 43 with what feels like a cold wind.

We will be home tomorrow and it will be odd to come into Michigan was no snow on the ground in mid-December.

[OKwx2k4]

January is your month down there for winter to begin...

 

Here's hoping.

[Andie]

Pretty typical for us. Jan and Feb can get very cold, wet, and in Nino yrs, snowy and foggy.