January 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Esquimalt]

Probably not so much for Esquimalt’s location but most of Vancouver Island actually does better for snowfall when the systems approach from the SW. easterly flow and heavier precip rates. In NW flow we get shadowed and the SE winds ahead of the front scour out the cold quite quickly

How do the euro snow maps look?

[ShawniganLake]

How do the euro snow maps look?

Not updated far enough yet.

 

For southern Vancouver Island, the GFS, was basically a best case scenario run, considering a lack of continental air available

[Esquimalt]

Not updated far enough yet.

 

For southern Vancouver Island, the GFS, was basically a best case scenario run, considering a lack of continental air available

The fv3 has been showing a solution very similar to the GFS.  

[luvssnow_spokane]

How do the euro snow maps look?

Not even worth looking. 

[Deweydog]

You guys are the experts in interpreting the models. I would really appreciate if you guys'd tell me about the status of the various storms in next week's complex setup

It’s not all that complex of a setup. A few surface lows kind of bouncing around and ejecting from a deep, baggy trough.

[TT-SEA]

How do the euro snow maps look?

 

Through Tuesday at 10 a.m. when the snow is over...

 

[Esquimalt]

Through Tuesday at 10 a.m. when the snow is over...

 

Solid nope on the Euro.   Phil!!!!

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Here is a tweet from Jay Albrecht, from the NWS.  Jay sometimes posts on here as Jaya

 

 

Jay Albrecht‏ @AlbrechtJay 4m4 minutes ago

More

Well, courtesy of http://TropicalTidbits.com , here is a fcst sounding for Bremerton next Tue AM. Warm front with low level NE flow. Counting on heavy precip, isothermal near 0C boundary layer, and evap cooling. Marginal. UW WRF goes nuts with snowfall. I'm skeptical. #wawx #wasnow

 

 

[Front Ranger]

I agree and I'm also starting to find myself skipping those two runs.

 

Like you said, it's been a well-known fact that those two were always the ugly stepchildren that would sometimes go off on their own but something about this year has really made that apparent.

 

The only problem with this statement is that actual evidence has always shown that any difference in verification scores between the 4 runs of the GFS is negligible.

 

Hard to reconcile that with the 6z/18z constantly "going off on their own".

[HighlandExperience]

4-6 feet of snow on the ground in Seattle by January 10th, 1880.

 

Wow, I can't even imagine what that would look like today, let alone how the region would respond.

 

We would need a whole lot of salt...

Could happen next week still.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Through Tuesday at 10 a.m. when the snow is over...

 

 

Fully expect Monmouth to get buried now that I am in Springfield.

[Esquimalt]

Fully expect Monmouth to get buried now that I am in Springfield.

This run was just slightly too mild. Im still hopeful.

[Timmy]

The wrf shows about 8” of snow here in the next 5 days

[Phil]

CFS weeklies are suggesting a cooler than normal last week of jan and first week of feb fwiw.

I feel like a scumbag popping in here with bad news after a nice vacation, but that’s very unlikely to occur unless it’s an inversion thing.

 

I’m just catching up on everything now (in flight WiFi ftw) and though the low predictability state looks to continue for the next several weeks as the Alaska/GOA vortex gradually erodes and the AO/NAM heads negative, the prospects for deep western troughing/-PNA appear to be diminishing from mid-January onwards for a multitude of reasons that I’m unable to adequately explain sitting in a crammed JetBlue flight loaded with crying babies and people sorely in need of a shower.

[MossMan]

Could happen next week still.

Seattle/all of Puget Sound would come to a halt. Next to no transportation moving...you could just go out in downtown or stand on I-5 and hear nothing but the quiet snow falling...

[Phil]

The only problem with this statement is that actual evidence has always shown that any difference in verification scores between the 4 runs of the GFS is negligible.

 

Hard to reconcile that with the 6z/18z constantly "going off on their own".

This! Thank you.

 

There is no performance degradation whatsoever in the 06z/18z runs. They would not be run otherwise. In fact, when referencing the same timeframe, accuracy improves (on average) with each cycle due to the decreasing lead time.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

The wrf shows about 8” of snow here in the next 5 days

 

Happy for you man.  We can put the regional dud-status to rest.

[MossMan]

Also known as... heaven.

For sure! The closest thing I can remember in my lifetime with Seattle coming to a halt briefly was the night of 12/28 into the late morning of 12/29/96 where pretty much only emergency responders were out and they were even getting stuck. Also Dec. 1990 during that epic heavy snowfall that caught everyone on I-5 by surprise where hundreds of people just left their abandoned cars on the freeway and walked. That was something else. But 4 feet of snowfall, that would completely shut things down for quite a duration of time. I want to see that in my lifetime!

[Esquimalt]

Only 50 inches to go!

 

Who believes this map lol?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Who believes this map lol?

 

I think something good is coming for y'all.  But not quite this extreme.

[Esquimalt]

I think something good is coming for y'all.  But not quite this extreme.

I hope your faith and optimism is enough to get us our 8 inches.  

[luvssnow_spokane]

The wrf shows about 8” of snow here in the next 5 days

doubtful

 

Seattle/all of Puget Sound would come to a halt. Next to no transportation moving...you could just go out in downtown or stand on I-5 and hear nothing but the quiet snow falling...

OMG!!! a total dreamland.  BRING IT!!!!!!

[luvssnow_spokane]

Who believes this map lol?

NOT ME ... and hilarious what the WRF spews out! buwahahahahahahahahahaaaa!!!!               <_>

[crf450ish]

For sure! The closest thing I can remember in my lifetime with Seattle coming to a halt briefly was the night of 12/28 into the late morning of 12/29/96 where pretty much only emergency responders were out and they were even getting stuck. Also Dec. 1990 during that epic heavy snowfall that caught everyone on I-5 by surprise where hundreds of people just left their abandoned cars on the freeway and walked. That was something else. But 4 feet of snowfall, that would completely shut things down for quite a duration of time. I want to see that in my lifetime!

Dude the 90's were such a great time...

[Front Ranger]

I don't need verification scores to show me what I can see with my own two eyes, but I understand what you're getting at.

 

All I'm saying is the lore that the 6z/18z are more prone to different solutions than their 12z/00z counterparts seems to have gained more credence this season.

I'm sure it happens sometimes, and is much more noticeable than when it doesn't happen.

 

I'm also sure there are times the 12z or 0z takes a left turn, only for the next run to veer back right to a previous solution.

[TT-SEA]

I hope your faith and optimism is enough to get us our 8 inches.  

 

 

That's what she said.   

[Esquimalt]

That's what she said.   

Sorry I should have said 13

[SilverFallsAndrew]

On another note, snowstorm at the OK Corral!

 

https://www.facebook.com/historictombstone/videos/516805308810822/

 

Pretty awesome. I cannot wait for my 8 days in Arizona in March. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

That's what she said.   

 

He's Canadian so you have to excuse his confusion on our measurements.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[ShawniganLake]

Getting some big wind gusts here now. Rainfall has topped 2”

[Parksvillewx]

Probably not so much for Esquimalt’s location but most of Vancouver Island actually does better for snowfall when the systems approach from the SW. easterly flow and heavier precip rates. In NW flow we get shadowed and the SE winds ahead of the front scour out the cold quite quickly

Great track for me. Same track is how I scored most of the snow last winter.

[Esquimalt]

Great track for me. Same track is how I scored most of the snow last winter.

You'll score great, no worries about that.  

[Gradient Keeper]

Now that we're within that 2-4 day window the question is which model blinks first? Does the GFS stick to its guns showing deeper, compact lows and a very real wind storm potential along with NAM/ICON/FV3 model camp? Or does the ECMWF stick to its guns showing a weaker scenario and splitting energy inside 130 W to the Coast more inline with the GEM? Not sure. If I were a betting man, which I am I would factor in the fact that we're in a weak Nino currently and I would lean more towards the ECMWF/GEM. We shall find out soon.

[HighlandExperience]

Only 50 inches to go!

 

This will verify. Even the swamps get 1 inch.

[Esquimalt]

He's Canadian so you have to excuse his confusion on our measurements.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I think inches are the universal unit of measurement for that

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The WRF is totally worthless. 

 

The EURO on the other hand does show quite a bit of snow for Timmy and mine's locations. 

 

For W. Washington the GFS is probably the best case scenario, looks like a good Hood Canal setup. The operational runs aren't on board with another real cool shot around the 10th/11th, but some ensembles look pretty good in that period. 

 

All models and the ensembles show a warm up around the 8th.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I've been about as pessimistic as anyone this winter and it has been a true dud. But if there is any time to be optimistic we might see something interesting, that time is now. We are entering an active pattern that could hold a few surprises. I really doubt we see a true regional event this winter, but a Hood Canal snow, or PDX Gorge event, anafront south valley snow, or quick 6" overrunning event at Bellingham wouldn't surprise me. 

 

I usually only care about what happens at my place, but I would love to see Seattle, or Vancouver, or wherever get a nice event even if I miss out. There just won't be much to go around this year.  

[Deweydog]

I've been about as pessimistic as anyone this winter and it has been a true dud. But if there is any time to be optimistic we might see something interesting, that time is now. We are entering an active pattern that could hold a few surprises. I really doubt we see a true regional event this winter, but a Hood Canal snow, or PDX Gorge event, anafront south valley snow, or quick 6" overrunning event at Bellingham wouldn't surprise me.

 

I usually only care about what happens at my place, but I would love to see Seattle, or Vancouver, or wherever get a nice event even if I miss out. There just won't be much to go around this year.

You’ve come a long way from your “we must secede!!!” rhetoric.

[BLI snowman]

You’ve come a long way from your “we must secede!!!” rhetoric.

 

I think we should have a separate January weather thread for SE Marion County, just because the weather can be pretty different from parts of the PNW.

[Parksvillewx]

You'll score great, no worries about that.

I'm still not sold but chances are looking good.