January 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[ShawniganLake]

That has boom potential.

 

(Andrew might disagree though).

I was expecting worse. Even some cool offshore flow would be nice.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Not sure about that... local media seems to be in the business of dire warnings to attract viewers.

 

That is why I try to avoid local newscasts whenever possible.   Its downright depressing.

 

Yeah I try and not watch any news at all. Occasionally I'll go to a local news website and briefly skim over the headlines to see any relevant news but that's about it.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

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There's still lots of Winter left. Just need the ridge to amplify and retrograde up into Alaska. Lots of potential ahead.

[ShawniganLake]

There's still lots of Winter left. Just need the ridge to amplify and retrograde up into Alaska. Lots of potential ahead.

You make it sound so easy. If it was easy it would get cold here more often.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

You make it sound so easy. If it was easy it would get cold here more often.

Yeah, 95% of the time it doesn't, and regardless of whether or not the El Nino is "official", it has sure been acting like that, and it makes it even less likely.  Every long range Euro run so far has all the cold air east.  But nothing is impossible.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Sometimes it is good to remember dud winters are fairly common around here.

[MossMan]

Forks. Over.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I expect the whole valley is going to end up torching by the end of the afternoon, with the possible exception of PDX. CVO and SLE just jumped to 51 and 48 respectively in the past hour and Eugene is up to 60 now with sunny skies and south winds 25g31. 

 

These are the kind of days we are going to need if we are to match January 2018. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Sometimes it is good to remember dud winters are fairly common around here.

 

Not ones this bad...until now 

[Deweydog]

It’s STILL January 9th.

[GHweatherChris]

It’s STILL January 9th.

But it's already half over!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

You make it sound so easy. If it was easy it would get cold here more often.

Yeah, 95% of the time it doesn't, and regardless of whether or not the El Nino is "official", it has sure been acting like that, and it makes it even less likely. Every long range Euro run so far has all the cold air east. But nothing is impossible.

I know it's not easy. I'm just looking at the pattern and seeing a way for us to get an Arctic Blast. It's only January 9, as I mentioned before over half of the Arctic Blast I have experienced living in the PNW have occurred in February. Throw in the SSW that happened and I'm even more optimistic than usual.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Forks. Over.

Reverse psychology works but only as a last minute resort. Use it to soon and it unfortunately doesn't work.

[Deweydog]

But it's already half over!

Ugh

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Interesting.....

 

Judah Cohen@judah47

 

This #PolarVortex split is truly the energizer bunny of PV splits - it just "keeps going and going and going." Very impressive longevity to the event but I have no idea if this makes a difference on the weather across the Northern Hemisphere but will make for a great animation!

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/judah47/status/1083069350175756289

[Phil]

Interesting.....

 

Judah Cohen@judah47

 

This #PolarVortex split is truly the energizer bunny of PV splits - it just "keeps going and going and going." Very impressive longevity to the event but I have no idea if this makes a difference on the weather across the Northern Hemisphere but will make for a great animation!

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/judah47/status/1083069350175756289

It really is impressive. We’re looking at a 3+ week wind reversal. Unprecedented in length. Hard to believe this wouldn’t affect the annular mode/tropics thru winter/spring at this point.

[Phil]

Some models keep the reversal going until the end of the month, making it 4 weeks long. Which would be downright outrageous.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Not ones this bad...until now 

 

I wouldn't call what we've seen so far unprecedented. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I wouldn't call what we've seen so far unprecedented.

Locally this is the worst cold season to this point. Not regionally tho.

 

59 with some rain and BSF.

[crf450ish]

I hate freezing rain.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Locally this is the worst cold season to this point. Not regionally tho.

 

59 with some rain and BSF.

 

Except that is not even close to being true. EUG was only +2.3 for December. Both December 2014 and 2015 were significantly warmer at EUG. 

[Jesse]

It’s STILL January 9th.

Don’t steal my thunder!

[Geos]

el Nino sure not doing much.

 

 

[TT-SEA]

el Nino sure not doing much.

 

 

 

Not sure what that means for the rest of this cold season... but it probably sets the stage for a much stronger Nino next winter.   

 

Phil appears to have called this correctly.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Not sure what that means for the rest of this cold season... but it probably sets the stage for a much stronger Nino next winter.   

 

Phil appears to have called this correctly.  

 

Probably doesn't mean much for this winter we appear stuck in a Nino type pattern. Whether it officially qualifies or not is really semantics at this point. I hope we have the mother of all Nino's next winter if we are going to have one. Go big or go home. 

[TT-SEA]

Probably doesn't mean much for this winter we appear stuck in a Nino type pattern. Whether it officially qualifies or not is really semantics at this point. I hope we have the mother of all Nino's next winter if we are going to have one. Go big or go home. 

 

 

The last strong Nino resulted in the wettest rainy season in history here.  

[Frontal Snowsquall]

It really is impressive. We’re looking at a 3+ week wind reversal. Unprecedented in length. Hard to believe this wouldn’t affect the annular mode/tropics thru winter/spring at this point.

Some models keep the reversal going until the end of the month, making it 4 weeks long. Which would be downright outrageous.

Do you think that's the reason the impact we usually receive from SSW events has been delayed to this point?

 

Maybe the response we will get is building up and when it's finally let go it's going to be a massive, possibly historic event for someone.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The last strong Nino resulted in the wettest rainy season in history here.  

 

Well we can always hope. Don't think it was the wettest rainy season here, but it was the wettest December on record. Mid-November through about 1/5 were not bad. After than it was pretty dull. 

[Jesse]

Do you think that's the reason the impact we usually receive from SSW events has been delayed to this point?

 

Maybe the response we will get is building up and when it's finally let go it's going to be a massive, possibly historic event for someone.

What impact are you referring to? I don’t believe that SSWs always translate to arctic outbreaks here.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

What impact are you referring to? I don’t believe that SSWs always translate to arctic outbreaks here.

 

Yeah, but there hasn't been an arctic outbreak anywhere...

[Jesse]

Yeah, but there hasn't been an arctic outbreak anywhere...

I thought late October through early December had some impressive air masses back east.

[Omegaraptor]

Well we can always hope. Don't think it was the wettest rainy season here, but it was the wettest December on record. Mid-November through about 1/5 were not bad. After than it was pretty dull. 

 

December 2015. That was epic. Over 15" at PDX including 2.67" in one day.

[Omegaraptor]

I hate freezing rain.

 

I'm entirely with you. Freezing rain is the devil's weather. It's miserable to ski/snowboard in, miserable to drive in, miserable to do anything in because it seeps right through your layers and makes them useless. I'd rather have -20ºF than freezing rain. At least in -20ºF your layers protect you.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I thought late October through early December had some impressive air masses back east.

 

Yeah that was pre-SSW.

[Jesse]

Yeah that was pre-SSW.

Don’t even understand how they happened in that case.

[TT-SEA]

Well we can always hope. Don't think it was the wettest rainy season here, but it was the wettest December on record. Mid-November through about 1/5 were not bad. After than it was pretty dull. 

 

 

 

It also featured the most spectacular spring ever!  

 

This was 3/26/16:

 

 

And this was 4/8/16:

 

 

 

And then 4/19/16:

 

 

 

That looks sooooooooo nice!    And so early.    And it did not result in an inferno summer either.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

December 2015. That was epic. Over 15" at PDX including 2.67" in one day.

 

6" of snow on the ground Christmas day up here too. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It also featured the most spectacular spring ever!  

 

This was 3/26/16:

 

 

And this was 4/8/16:

 

 

 

And then 4/19/16:

 

 

 

That looks sooooooooo nice!    And so early.    And it did not result in an inferno summer either.   

 

I remember camping over near Badger Creek east of Mount Hood in March and it was nice. It was a pretty hot summer down here. 

[TT-SEA]

6" of snow on the ground Christmas day up here too. 

 

 

Yes!

 

Before that awesome spring... we had a white Christmas and snow on the ground for almost a month.     

 

This was Christmas morning in 2015:

 

 

 

And then 1/4/16:

 

[Jesse]

I expect the whole valley is going to end up torching by the end of the afternoon, with the possible exception of PDX. CVO and SLE just jumped to 51 and 48 respectively in the past hour and Eugene is up to 60 now with sunny skies and south winds 25g31.

 

These are the kind of days we are going to need if we are to match January 2018.

42 with moderate rain here.