January 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Frontal Snowsquall]

12Z ECMWF is nice... if you are cheering for dry weather and sunshine.

I would prefer an Arctic Blast but dry and sunny weather would be my second choice.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

If you like cherries and beef then ya the weather is important.

[Front Ranger]

No doubt.

 

All that matters is to them is how the snow pack ends up in April.    

 

A cold, wet spring is also disaster for them.   Farmers are always worried about the weather!   

 

Sounds like you agree that building the snowpack now would be a good idea, then.

[TT-SEA]

I would prefer an Arctic Blast but dry and sunny weather would be my second choice.

 

 

Total precip from day 3 through 10 per the 12Z ECMWF...

 

[TT-SEA]

Sounds like you agree that building the snowpack now would be a good idea, then.

 

 

Not really... lots of snow right at the end of the season would probably be best.    

 

But I don't control it.   I just enjoy any sunshine that nature wants to send us here.  

[TT-SEA]

If you like cherries and beef then ya the weather is important.

 

 

I pray we don't have a cold spring like in 2011 and 2012.    That was really bad for agriculture in eastern WA. 

 

If your biggest concern is agriculture... then you better hope for a nice gentle spring.      

[Front Ranger]

Not really... lots of snow right at the end of the season would probably be best.   

 

But wouldn't that mean a cold/wet spring, which is bad for farmers? Seems like a cold/wet Jan-Mar would be best case scenario.

 

Plus, you'll be in Hawaii for part of that period. 

[TT-SEA]

But wouldn't that mean a cold/wet spring, which is bad for farmers? Seems like a cold/wet Jan-Mar would be best case scenario.

 

Plus, you'll be in Hawaii for part of that period. 

 

I hope it storms like crazy here while we are in Hawaii!    And when we are in Palm Springs in March.  

 

But we will be here to enjoy this potentially sunny period coming up.    

 

And its not like there is a water supply disaster over there yet...

 

[MossMan]

I hope it storms like crazy here while we are in Hawaii! And when we are in Palm Springs in March.

 

But we will be here to enjoy this potentially sunny period coming up.

 

And its not like there is a water supply disaster over there yet...

 

Yeah I’m sure those numbers in Wa that are not far off anyway will be at or above normal by April.

[Front Ranger]

Yeah I’m sure those numbers in Wa that are not far off anyway will be at or above normal by April.

 

Nino climo says that is unlikely...FWIW.

[TT-SEA]

Nino climo says that is unlikely...FWIW.

 

Its barely a Nino... or maybe just warm neutral.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I hope it storms like crazy here while we are in Hawaii!    And when we are in Palm Springs in March.  

 

But we will be here to enjoy this potentially sunny period coming up.    

 

And its not like there is a water supply disaster over there yet...

 

Not even one of those obs are in the okanagan highlands. Very dry in that entire area.

[Front Ranger]

Its barely a Nino... or maybe just warm neutral.  

 

True. But a lot of people seem to be convinced it's running the show this winter.

 

If so, not sure why that would change this spring.

[TT-SEA]

Not even one of those obs are in the okanagan highlands. Very dry in that entire area.

 

So?  

 

Stuff happens all the time.   Still going to enjoy any sun that nature sends our way.     

 

My preferences are meaningless to nature and I can't worry about every nook and cranny of the PNW... or the country... or the world. 

[Front Ranger]

The EPS unfortunately seems to support the Euro's idea of the pattern evolution towards day 10. Still plenty of time for things to improve, of course.

[TT-SEA]

The EPS unfortunately seems to support the Euro's idea of the pattern evolution towards day 10. Still plenty of time for things to improve, of course.

 

 

Yeah... the EPS trended warmer in the mid range and in the 10-15 day period.

 

Looks like the westerlies are breaking through at the end which would likely bring a good mountain snow pattern.   I will enjoy that as well and maybe we can get some good skiing in before Hawaii.   

[Esquimalt]

Yeah... the EPS trended warmer in the mid range and in the 10-15 day period.

 

Looks like the westerlies are breaking through at the end which would likely bring a good mountain snow pattern.   I will enjoy that as well and maybe we can get some good skiing in before Hawaii.   

Does the block get undercut?  

[TT-SEA]

Does the block get undercut?

It just sort of dissolves.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Oh well...let's see if my personal snowless streak can be broken next year.

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS for the 10-15 day period:

 

 

[BLI snowman]

Early February should be pretty wet. Might finally see another wetter than average month in the Portland area.

[TT-SEA]

Hodge-podge of cloud layers today...

 

[MossMan]

Not sure if anyone mentioned it earlier but the 12z GFS ensembles look way better than the 6z.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Not sure if anyone mentioned it earlier but the 12z GFS ensembles look way better than the 6z.

 

At least some good mtn snow hopefully. Would be worlds better than the shitshow the EC & EPS has.

[Kayla]

Total precip from day 3 through 10 per the 12Z ECMWF...

 

 

Beautiful snowy pattern if you live in the Rockies or the Northern Plains. 

[ShawniganLake]

How’s the euro control run looking. I’m assuming not good, because it hasn’t been mentioned lately

[TT-SEA]

How’s the euro control run looking. I’m assuming not good, because it hasn’t been mentioned lately

 

I don't normally look at it... but its nothing special at all on the 12Z run.    

[ShawniganLake]

I don't normally look at it... but its nothing special at all on the 12Z run.

The GEPS and GEFS look decent and the EPS pretty awful. Figures.

[Timmy]

18z!

[Deweydog]

It’s 7 degrees in Boston. Milder here.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Interesting from Joe. February 1993 had an Arctic Blast here in the PNW and there was a snowstorm on the 19th for PDX.

 

Joe Bastardi@BigJoeBastardi

 

Euro Ensembles lining up grand planetary wave feature N Pole to 20 north similar to 1993 superstorm pattern, For an ensemble run given its many members pretty darn impressive below Day 8, 6-10 mean 500, day 7,8 surface Pattern is not boring, no one is snoring

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1087352451014033409

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Interesting from Joe. February 1993 had an Arctic Blast here in the PNW and there was a snowstorm on the 19th for PDX.

 

Joe Bastardi@BigJoeBastardi

 

Euro Ensembles lining up grand planetary wave feature N Pole to 20 north similar to 1993 superstorm pattern, For an ensemble run given its many members pretty darn impressive below Day 8, 6-10 mean 500, day 7,8 surface Pattern is not boring, no one is snoring

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1087352451014033409

 

92-93 was a balls-to-the-wall memorable winter from start to finish here.  I remember being in 2nd grade and feeling like it was snowing regularly and we lived in a different state.

[luvssnow_spokane]

18z!

Yep.........  waiting until it gets to 300+ hours to post some gripping and relevant maps. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

92-93 was a balls-to-the-wall memorable winter from start to finish here. I remember being in 2nd grade and feeling like it was snowing regularly and we lived in a different state.

I can only vaguely remember the February 93 event. I was only 4 at the time.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Interesting from Joe. February 1993 had an Arctic Blast here in the PNW and there was a snowstorm on the 19th for PDX.

 

Joe Bastardi@BigJoeBastardi

 

Euro Ensembles lining up grand planetary wave feature N Pole to 20 north similar to 1993 superstorm pattern, For an ensemble run given its many members pretty darn impressive below Day 8, 6-10 mean 500, day 7,8 surface Pattern is not boring, no one is snoring

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1087352451014033409

He's not talking about the PNW, he is talking about the East.  The pattern is similar to that which produced the 1993 superstorm, not the 1993 arctic blast for us.  The maps he posted shows nothing close to the PNW.

[Requiem]

Interesting from Joe. February 1993 had an Arctic Blast here in the PNW and there was a snowstorm on the 19th for PDX.

 

Joe Bastardi@BigJoeBastardi

 

Euro Ensembles lining up grand planetary wave feature N Pole to 20 north similar to 1993 superstorm pattern, For an ensemble run given its many members pretty darn impressive below Day 8, 6-10 mean 500, day 7,8 surface Pattern is not boring, no one is snoring

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1087352451014033409

 

I thought the "super" storm was in March?

[HighlandExperience]

[Frontal Snowsquall]

He's not talking about the PNW, he is talking about the East. The pattern is similar to that which produced the 1993 superstorm, not the 1993 arctic blast for us. The maps he posted shows nothing close to the PNW.

I already knew that. It's just good to see that the particular Winter he is talking about also produced an Arctic Blast for the PNW in February. Analog or not I'm looking for any glimmer of hope at the moment!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

I thought the "super" storm was in March?

It was.

[Front Ranger]

March is almost always colder than January.