Frontal Snowsquall Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 18z FV3 850s of -29c sloshing over the Canadian border into North Central Washington. WOW! Frigid! 850mb temps get even colder down to -32C in the next frame. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 Is that what I said?Nor did I say "the models are more likely to be wrong than right after 3 days". Not all the models are in agreement. By saying "the models" the implication would be that all the models were in agreement. I agree, if all the models were saying snow and cold within 3 days there would be a better than 50/50 chance for colder and possibly snowy weather to follow. When this all boils down all I was saying is that we've seen the models fall away when we are 5 days out especially when they aren't all in lock step. I might have thrown in a little hyperbole. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 Holy crap! The FV3 and ECMWF sent me into orbit today. Been a long time since we have seen something so good in the believable range. 3 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 Holy crap! The FV3 and ECMWF sent mwe into orbit today. Been a long time since we have seen something so good in the believable range.Glad you back 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 Holy crap! The FV3 and ECMWF sent me into orbit today. Been a long time since we have seen something so good in the believable range.Might have to put our meeting off until the snow clears up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 F*ck this f*cking climate. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 F*ck this f*cking climate.Leave him be, Tim. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 FV3 keeps 850s at both PDX and SEA at -7C or below from Sunday night through to almost the end of the run. Also, genuine question here as I have really fallen out of the weather hobby in recent years, but is there any reason us weenies are not putting more weight to the FV3 over the old GFS at this point? From what I've read, from a technical standpoint it is a far superior model. It's going to be replacing the operational GFS this year, so I'm inclined to think it is far more likely to have a good handle on things than the GFS is. Is it just because it's unproven and new? This will be a fabulous test for the FV3. It latched onto this possible major cold scenario early next week before the Euro did. If it pans out you could say it outperformed the Euro on seeing it ahead of time. The ECMWF ensemble is the other model that has insisted on early next week being cold. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 Leave him be, Tim.Live forum PD. Jim’s a big boy. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 Glad you back I've been here the past couple of days. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 For the record IF this happens we wil be defying the odds to an insane degree. Having the early and mid winter torch with warm ENSO followed by a cold Feb would be extremely rare. On the other hand this season has already been full of unlikely events such as the extreme torch in the early winter and the +10 30 day SOI we recently had in spite of the weak Nino. It's pretty likely ENSO is not the main driver this winter. 3 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 Might have to put our meeting off until the snow clears up. We just might. I'm still game for it in the near future. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 HUGE runs tonight! That's for sure. I was glad to see the GFS make a good move toward the FV3 and ECMWF on the 18z. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 The big difference with the models that turn out good is a low that devlops off the coast of soutern BC and later merges with the main continental trough. That features shows up clearly on the ECMWF ensemble, which makes the chances decent it will verify. All ECMWF models show another cold shot on or just after day 10. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Sounder Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 Mark just dropped the s bomb on Fox 12!!! We're screwed!!!!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 Mark just dropped the s bomb on Fox 12!!! We're screwed!!!!! Get the forks out Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 18z FV3 850s of -29c sloshing over the Canadian border into North Central Washington. WOW! Good Lord, that's crazy. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 Mark just dropped the s bomb on Fox 12!!! We're screwed!!!!! It probably depends on the context. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Farmboy Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 I have a bad feeling the mets are gonna jinx this one. Too bad they can't just keep their big fat mouths shut. Quote "Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Sounder Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 I have a bad feeling the mets are gonna jinx this one. Too bad they can't just keep their big fat mouths shut.Yeah!! Quit changing our weather with your forecasts, idiot mets!!! Let the autistic weather forum posters handle this one!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 My wife asked me about an hour ago if it was supposed to snow next week. Has to be a good/bad sign. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 It probably depends on the context.Yeah, Mark’s not usually one to snowsquall things up too much. Whatever he said is probably a pretty reasonable take. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Sounder Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 Yeah, Mark’s not usually one to snowsquall things up too much. Whatever he said is probably a pretty reasonable take.It was. He stated confidently that it will be cold next week, snow levels definitely down to around 2,000', but that "a couple models are showing snow down to sea level" and he might need to revise his 5 day forecast to say that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 It was. He stated confidently that it will be cold next week, snow levels definitely down to around 2,000', but that "a couple models are showing snow down to sea level" and he might need to revise his 5 day forecast to say that.He could have screamed SNOWMAGEDDON or said it will be 60 and sunny next week... and whatever will happen will still happen. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted January 30, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 Yeah!! Quit changing our weather with your forecasts, idiot mets!!! Let the autistic weather forum posters handle this one!!! I'm fine with the sentiment of the post, but it isn't the greatest thing to be flinging around "autistic" as an insult. 2 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crf450ish Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 BACK LOADED WINTER Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 I created an image collage to show just how much colder for Monday onward the FV3 has trended since the 00z run last night. 20 degrees colder for Monday and Wednesday.27 degrees colder for Tuesday.16 degrees colder for Thursday. I mean, wow. Quite the change. Coldest on my b-day, that's awesome! Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 Junk in the trunk! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 He could have screamed SNOWMAGEDDON or said it will be 60 and sunny next week... and whatever will happen will still happen. Yup. It is amazing how many people believe in jinxes. Like people who think s potential no-hitter is jinxed if the announcer says a no-hitter is going on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 00Z Icon!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 For the record IF this happens we wil be defying the odds to an insane degree. Having the early and mid winter torch with warm ENSO followed by a cold Feb would be extremely rare. On the other hand this season has already been full of unlikely events such as the extreme torch in the early winter and the +10 30 day SOI we recently had in spite of the weak Nino. It's pretty likely ENSO is not the main driver this winter.8-9 with low solar. A complete miss would be an even greater upset. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andrew. Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted January 30, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 00Z Icon!!! It's running! 1 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andrew. Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 It's running!Better go catch it! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted January 30, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 Better go catch it! Too fast for me! 1 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 Yeah, Mark’s not usually one to snowsquall things up too much. Whatever he said is probably a pretty reasonable take. I watched it, he said snow levels will be down to 1000ft at least but there are 2 models (Euro and FV3?) that show snow to sea level but he is discounting those solutions for now. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 !!!00z ICON 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 00z ICON ridge is more amplified. Bitter air nearing Bellingham at Day 5.5 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 00z GFS Day 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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