The crosstabs on the NYT battleground polls is incredible. A few highlights below, just fascinating stuff.
52% of respondents said there is "NO WAY" they would ever vote for Biden, 46% of respondents said the same about Trump.
Biden leads among college educated Whites 52-39%, he leads among college educated non-whites 61-27%
However, Trump leads 61-32% among non-college educated whites. Biden only leads by 9%, 47-38% among non-white's without a college degree.
I would say Biden does have some room to pick up ground in some states among Black voters, and other non-white voters, it seems many are not Biden fans, but not ready to vote for Trump.
Trump leads among white voters overall by 15%, trails among Black voters but polls at 23%, and they are virtually tied among Hispanic voters. Respondents who answered "other" for ethnicity favor Trump by a narrow margin.
Trump leads Independent voters by 9%.
The most interesting crosstab I saw was the split by age. The ONLY group Biden was leading among was people over 65. Trump leads by 3% among 18-29 year olds, 8% among folks 30-44, and by a whopping 14% among voters aged 45-64.
Again a reminder this is just in six "battleground" states, so it may look different among these demographics as opposed to a national survey. However, it looks like they surveyed nearly 4,100 voters for this poll across the six states, so it is statistically significant sample size.
Overall really encouraging news for Trump. If you are a Biden supporter you can feel okay about the race being within the margin of error in the Blue Wall states. You can also feel like there are clear paths to victory in this poll in Wisconsin and Michigan. Not as good of news in PA for Biden here, but still very close, and there are a couple better polls for him there. If you are a Trump supporter you have to feel really good about the sunbelt states. But can you continue to erode Biden's support in the Blue Wall states?
The news on the Senate side is better for Democrats, but those races won't really come into focus until late summer. I would be very concerned about Jackie Rosen in Nevada only polling at 41% as an incumbent, even though right now it's tied. Generally speaking an incumbent polling below 45% is considered vulnerable.
One final note. Of the voters surveyed, they self reported having voted for Biden in 2020 by a 50-47 margin. As Trump leads by an aggregate of 6% among the states, that is an astonishing 9% swing from 4 years ago.
I was looking at those Siena/NTY Battleground polls and really digging into the cross tabs. What's interesting is the only state Biden leads Trump is in Michigan, but the numbers most outlets are reporting are LIKELY voters. Which is fine, what's interesting is when you look at REGISTERED voters it's REALLY ugly for Biden. He trails by 7% in MICHIGAN. However, it is interesting Wisconsin flips and he's up 2% there, but he's down double digits in Nevada and Georgia, down 6% in AZ and down 3% in PA.
It's also interesting, at least at this point Ohio, NC, and Florida do not seem to be in play, and states like Iowa are completely off the board.
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