gosaints Posted January 23, 2019 Report Share Posted January 23, 2019 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 23, 2019 Report Share Posted January 23, 2019 12z euro not as sw/extreme as 00z, but still great. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 23, 2019 Report Share Posted January 23, 2019 You’re gonna get whacked. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted January 23, 2019 Report Share Posted January 23, 2019 Holy arctic outbreak after this storm on the euro.... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 23, 2019 Report Share Posted January 23, 2019 Holy arctic outbreak after this storm on the euro....-40*c across Iowa on 168. Wow. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted January 23, 2019 Report Share Posted January 23, 2019 No offense, but that’s not exactly what I was talking about. Haha I know. Just I'm finally excited here in Michigan. Been a dud of a winter here. This is really getting my hopes up. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 23, 2019 Report Share Posted January 23, 2019 Super tight gradient with the extreme cold near the Nebraska/Iowa border. From record shattering cold to moderately below average in a fairly short distance. 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 23, 2019 Report Share Posted January 23, 2019 The cold the GFS shows after the passing of this clipper is just insane lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yerf Posted January 23, 2019 Report Share Posted January 23, 2019 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 23, 2019 Report Share Posted January 23, 2019 Looks like euro is .8-1.0 qpf for N IL .4-.6 in IA/WI and MN Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 23, 2019 Report Share Posted January 23, 2019 Tom is gonna get rocked. How's the LES signal? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 23, 2019 Report Share Posted January 23, 2019 https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/wisconsin/acc-precipitation-snow-total/20190129-1200z.html Subtract about .1-.2 of this in WI/IL from today’s storm 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 23, 2019 Report Share Posted January 23, 2019 I’m in a great spot this far out?? This is sure to end well... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 23, 2019 Report Share Posted January 23, 2019 wherever the pivot ends up will be the jack.... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 23, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 23, 2019 Tom is gonna get rocked. How's the LES signal?Hard to say at this point but with temps so cold I’d imagine they will trend better as we get closer in time. Ideally, Chitown needs a track into C IL for a good Lehs set up and then the backend LES signal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 23, 2019 Report Share Posted January 23, 2019 This clipper has great potential....and then, the true Arctic Express roars in (coldest of the season most likely). It will be absolutely brutal, almost near or if not as cold as 2013-14' season. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 23, 2019 Report Share Posted January 23, 2019 This clipper has great potential....and then, the true Arctic Express roars in (coldest of the season most likely). It will be absolutely brutal, almost near or if not as cold as 2013-14' season.GFS mex has lows in the mid 20's below zero a week from now. Quite a strong signal. If the clipper is as strong as advertised it should be some impressive cold Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 23, 2019 Report Share Posted January 23, 2019 GFS mex has lows in the mid 20's below zero a week from now. Quite a strong signal. If the clipper is as strong as advertised it should be some impressive coldThe temps are going to be extremely low and w that snowcover around once the clipper passes, its going to feel like Barrow, AK. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormgeek Posted January 23, 2019 Report Share Posted January 23, 2019 GFS 12z (using kuchera) rocks us here. Would be more than happy to just have an event where we get 4 inches and temps aren't 32 at the onset. However, could do without this insane cold due to work concerns. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 23, 2019 Report Share Posted January 23, 2019 GFS 12z (using kuchera) rocks us here. Would be more than happy to just have an event where we get 4 inches and temps aren't 32 at the onset. However, could do without this insane cold due to work concerns. The vortex signal on the EPS shouldnt be ingnored. We have seen cold show up in the long range only to go away. I think this one could come through Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 23, 2019 Report Share Posted January 23, 2019 Super tight gradient with the extreme cold near the Nebraska/Iowa border. From record shattering cold to moderately below average in a fairly short distance.We'll be lucky to even get below zero while people a 90 minute drive East will be in the double digits below zero. Wow. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 23, 2019 Report Share Posted January 23, 2019 Regardless of where the best snows hit, it looks like most of us might take a direct hit with the brutal cold. St Paul schools might not even be closed though. Gotta hit a WC of -40F. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 23, 2019 Report Share Posted January 23, 2019 From LOT: The timeframe of highest concern for potentially significant (6"+)snow accumulations is Sunday night through Monday. Models andensembles are in unusually good agreement this far out in a strongclipper/Pacific hybrid type system affecting the region. Thissystem will have a very impressive thermal gradient/barocliniczone to work with, along with possibly up to 150-200% of typicalPWAT for late January, also eye-openingi considering the coldantecedent air mass. Ultimately the track of the system willdictate who gets how much snow, but felt comfortable with thecategorical PoPs in blended guidance given strong guidanceagreement. A somewhat northward displaced track could evenintroduce p-type concerns into portions of the area consideringaforementioned thermal gradient over the region, with a low trackover northern IL favoring Wisconsin for highest snowfall. It alsoappears that it will become windy/breezy with the snow, soblowing/drifting snow could become an issue. We will certainly bewatching this period closely. Finally, in the wake of the potential Sunday night-Monday snowevent, the concern is what could be a brutally cold shot of Arcticair in the middle of next work week. While the GFS suite ofguidance is cold, the ECMWF/ensemble suite is particularlyconcerning for extreme/record cold. To highlight this, theensemble mean of 51 member European ensemble is indicating 850 mbtemperature anomalies of 20+ degrees Celsius below normal nextWednesday. If a piece of the tropospheric polar vortex can moveover the region as shown on the 12z operational ECMWF, that wouldhelp maximize how cold it gets. Still plenty of time for changesin this period, but even less cold GFS suite would favor some typeof wind chill headlines next Tuesday night through Wednesdaynight. Quote ...The Artist Formerly Known as RJSnowLover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 23, 2019 Report Share Posted January 23, 2019 The forecaster on the DVN long range desk this afternoon is *very* excited. Excerpt from perhaps the longest AFD I've ever read from them. Tuesday through Wednesday: In the wake of this system (and the muchdeeper snowpack that will be in place) this will set the stage forbrutally cold arctic airmass to plunge southward into the Midwest.If the ECMWF is correct this may be historic (record) cold as thePOLAR VORTEX drops into the Great Lakes region. 850 mb temperaturesdrop to an incredible -34 to -36c down to northern IL!. The GFS isnot as brutal keeping the vortex up towards James Bay with 850 mbtemps only to -26c. Either way you look at it this will be extremecold with record temperatures possible. The grids indicate lows wellbelow zero early Thursday morning, as low as 20 below in our north.However, this is heavily weighted on the GFS model, so if the ECMWFis correct it will be much colder than currently forecast, possiblyto 30 below zero or colder ambient temperature! Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 23, 2019 Report Share Posted January 23, 2019 GFS coming in a good bit north. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 23, 2019 Report Share Posted January 23, 2019 This might be the first storm thread this whole season that I won't be a part of. What a Winter. This might just be "the one" 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted January 23, 2019 Report Share Posted January 23, 2019 That’s an awful GFS run. It has rain in Iowa and also across northern Illinois. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 23, 2019 Report Share Posted January 23, 2019 GFS coming in a good bit north.Yup http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc&rh=2019012318&fh=126&r=us_mw&dpdt=&mc= Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 23, 2019 Report Share Posted January 23, 2019 -20 to -25 for high temps on gfs following the clipper http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sfct&rh=2019012318&fh=168&r=us_mw&dpdt=&mc= Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 23, 2019 Report Share Posted January 23, 2019 That’s an awful GFS run. It has rain in Iowa and also across northern Illinois.Yeah, but it’s one run. As long as this doesn’t start a trend of it going more and more north, it’s no biggie. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bellona Posted January 23, 2019 Report Share Posted January 23, 2019 GFS must have drank the kool-aid on that run. My forecast high that day is 11. Better hope it doesn't rain at 11. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 23, 2019 Report Share Posted January 23, 2019 That’s an awful GFS run. It has rain in Iowa and also across northern Illinois.North Dakota too though. That isn't happening. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 23, 2019 Report Share Posted January 23, 2019 -20 to -25 for high temps on gfs following the clipper http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sfct&rh=2019012318&fh=168&r=us_mw&dpdt=&mc=Wind chill of -58 here in Dubuque on Wednesday morning that run. Hahaha holy Christ 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 23, 2019 Report Share Posted January 23, 2019 GFS must have drank the kool-aid on that run. My forecast high that day is 11. Better hope it doesn't rain at 11.That’s not how it works. The warmer temps would be if the storm was further north, drawing in warmer air. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 23, 2019 Report Share Posted January 23, 2019 Wind chill of -58 here in Dubuque on Wednesday morning that run. Hahaha holy ChristThursday Morning it’s -55 for you again. Lows of -30 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 23, 2019 Report Share Posted January 23, 2019 Mid -60F WC in C MN with temps in the mid -30F. Man that’s good stuff. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 23, 2019 Report Share Posted January 23, 2019 Mid -60F WC in C MN with temps in the mid -30F. Man that’s good stuff.gonna be a lot of polar vortex talk if models hold through the weekend Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 23, 2019 Report Share Posted January 23, 2019 gonna be a lot of polar vortex talk if models hold through the weekendThat’s what I live for right there Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bellona Posted January 23, 2019 Report Share Posted January 23, 2019 That’s not how it works. The warmer temps would be if the storm was further north, drawing in warmer air. I realize that, thanks. I'm saying I doubt it be warm enough at the surface for rain. Highs would have to be raised over 20 degrees to have liquid rain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 23, 2019 Report Share Posted January 23, 2019 gonna be a lot of polar vortex talk if models hold through the weekendFor sure. Gonna need some of this snow to pan out to reach these potential temps. At least here. 1” of snow OTG isn’t gonna cut it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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