February 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest - Part 1

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF does show snow for the Seattle area now on Sunday night.  Low level cold air is goimg to be a big deal on Monday.  850s are -5 and yet the ECMWF shows afternoon temps in the low 30s for the Puget Sound region.  The WRF indicates a foot of snow for the Seattle area later next week.  150 blocks are magical for Seattle.

[Requiem]

SW WA and Portland folks should be seriously excited about the 00Z ECMWF.  

 

You bet I am! Shows that things still have a lot of potential.

[Jesse]

Dat Euro doe.

 

We are only talking like 48-60 hours out for Monday.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Total snow through Tuesday morning... 

 

 

Wow. Solid! That previous map showed impressively cool highs. Only about 33-34 up here Monday.

[Requiem]

The ECMWF does show snow for the Seattle area now on Sunday night.  Low level cold air is goimg to be a big deal on Monday.  850s are -5 and yet the ECMWF shows afternoon temps in the low 30s for the Puget Sound region.  The WRF indicates a foot of snow for the Seattle area later next week.  150 blocks are magical for Seattle.

 

Honestly I think 150 blocks are pretty magical for the whole region. 

[HighlandExperience]

The ECMWF does show snow for the Seattle area now on Sunday night. Low level cold air is goimg to be a big deal on Monday. 850s are -5 and yet the ECMWF shows afternoon temps in the low 30s for the Puget Sound region. The WRF indicates a foot of snow for the Seattle area later next week. 150 blocks are magical for Seattle.

Hard to get excited about something a week out. I’m happy models have improved in the short term though. Hope we can continue that trend in the morning.

[snow_wizard]

Hope the WRF is right. Not liking how the EURO shafts King County Monday.

 

It's actually better than previous runs.

[TT-SEA]

High temps on Tuesday... appears temps are lower around Portland because the ECMWF now assumes snow cover. 

 

12Z run had highs in the low 40s that day.  

 

[ShawniganLake]

It almost looks like it's too warm to support accumulating snow in much of victoria. Didn't imagine that would be an issue

GFS looked plenty cold in that time frame.

[HighlandExperience]

It's actually better than previous runs.

This reminds me of 2017 when Portland got snow on the ground for a week.

[snow_wizard]

Honestly I think 150 blocks are pretty magical for the whole region. 

 

150 seems to really be the sweet spot to have big snows for Seattle though in relation to other positions.  Portland always seems to do better with blocks a bit closer to the coast.

[BLI snowman]

Dat Euro doe.

 

We are only talking like 48-60 hours out for Monday.

 

Good to have the last minute eastward model slide on our side for a change.

[Requiem]

150 seems to really be the sweet spot to have big snows for Seattle though in relation to other positions.  Portland always seems to do better with blocks a bit closer to the coast.

 

I guess. I don't think Portland will be shunted completely after Monday though.

[TT-SEA]

Here is just Sunday 4 a.m. through Tuesday 4 a.m. to filter out the mountain snow it shows falling now.  

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

High temps on Tuesday... appears temps are lower around Portland because the ECMWF now assumes snow cover. 

 

12Z run had highs in the low 40s that day.  

 

 

Probably some easterly drift too...Looks chilly!

[snow_wizard]

This reminds me of 2017 when Portland got snow on the ground for a week.

 

Good chance everyone will get some good snow over the next week.  No reason to think the models couldn't trend a bit further east for the Sunday night thing as well.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I expect further east with tomorrow's runs. Starting to look good.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5 Not as good as GFS, GEM, or FV3 hmmm

 

[snow_wizard]

I guess. I don't think Portland will be shunted completely after Monday though.

 

They should get some as well.

[TT-SEA]

I expect further east with tomorrow's runs. Starting to look good.

 

 

I am starting to think that might happen as well.  

[MossMan]

Total snow through Tuesday morning...

 

Several inches up my way...what an improvement. Temps as well!

[TT-SEA]

Low temps on Wednesday morning...

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Jim how did the big snow of November 85 play out? I remembered it hit at the last minute. I remember harry Wappler calling for some sleet then rain.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

December 2008 was pretty good...

Yeah but like I told KI2 I was stressed out with it being my first Finals in college. Another reason I'm more excited right now is the better technology we have. 10 years ago we didn't have tropical tidbits, pivotal weather, weather.us etc. We just had that NOAA site and not much else.

[wxmet]

I'm not really a fan of weatherbell snow maps. My guess is temperatures at the surface in the mid 30s is the reason why it appears King county is getting screwed. Temperatures throughout the column support snow when there is more precipitation about .1-.2 in liquid which would translate to 1-2 inches with a 10:1 ratio.

[TT-SEA]

High temps on Wednesday...

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Winter Storm Watch just posted for Douglas County Cascade Foothills above 1500' Sunday night-Monday Night.

[TT-SEA]

I'm not really a fan of weatherbell snow maps. My guess is temperatures at the surface in the mid 30s is the reason why it appears King county is getting screwed. Temperatures throughout the column support snow when there is more precipitation about .1-.2 in liquid which would translate to 1-2 inches with a 10:1 ratio.

 

 

Lack of precip and offshore flow is why King County is shown to be screwed right now.   One more notch eastward and that will not be an issue.

[Esquimalt]

Lack of precip and offshore flow is why King County is shown to be screwed right now. One more notch eastward and that will not be an issue.

Do you know the issue in Vic and Van?

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6

 

[Jesse]

Winter Storm Watch just posted for Douglas County Cascade Foothills above 1500' Sunday night-Monday Night.

More interesting than anything those degenerates in the Portland area get.

[GHweatherChris]

As of now 2 to 4 inches of snow is a good bet for here Sun/Mon, however if there is a quick eastward trend developong we all know how that can go except the youngins on here....

[Jesse]

Low temps on Wednesday morning...

 

That 6F in Lewis County sort of sticks out.

[TT-SEA]

Do you know the issue in Vic and Van?

 

 

Maybe too much Fraser outflow?

[TT-SEA]

That 6F in Lewis County sort of sticks out.

 

Did not notice that... wow!  

 

Assume the ECMWF believes there will be deep snow cover there. 

[Esquimalt]

Maybe too much Fraser outflow?

Good point. Probably evaporates a lot of the precipitation. But if the outflow is strong enough we could have straight effect.

[Meatyorologist]

Total snow through Monday evening... HUGE improvements to the south.    King County is still in the screw zone though.

 

when are we ever not lol

 

for real though, I'm looking forward to anything

[TT-SEA]

Good point. Probably evaporates a lot of the precipitation. But if the outflow is strong enough we could have straight effect.

 

Delicate balance.  

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Jim how did the big snow of November 85 play out? I remembered it hit at the last minute. I remember harry Wappler calling for some sleet then rain.

Which one? I remember several snows. The big one just before Thanksgiving is the one I will never forget. I was in Bellingham. It had been cold for quite awhile, we had some snow, but other places had more. Forecast that day, Tuesday, was for a few flurries. Then it got cloudier and cloudier and was snowing by noon and did not stop. Epic. I think a little low spun off the coast and strengthened, and just drew a bunch of moisture from the ocean and dumped snow over us. Snowed all evening and was clear the next day. I remember how quiet the city was because no cars were driving

[bainbridgekid]

That 6F in Lewis County sort of sticks out.

I think that is right where the Euro spits out 6+ inches of snow so must just really be going crazy with the radiational cooling there.

 

Really appreciate all the Weatherbell maps, by the way Tim!