Minny_Weather Posted February 10, 2019 Report Share Posted February 10, 2019 It's fairly certain that there will be a storm late this week somewhere in the sub. There is still high model variance on this one. 00Z Euro 12Z GFS 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 10, 2019 Report Share Posted February 10, 2019 12z euro 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted February 10, 2019 Report Share Posted February 10, 2019 Thursday/Friday system looking better for SMI. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 10, 2019 Report Share Posted February 10, 2019 Need to pull the Euro south just a bit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 10, 2019 Report Share Posted February 10, 2019 18z GFS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted February 10, 2019 Report Share Posted February 10, 2019 I'm in the bullseye, but it's the GFS so I'm prepared to receive 0 inches. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 10, 2019 Report Share Posted February 10, 2019 12z euro Clearly has the heaviest accum's in SMI, not CMI, yet here's my office's take ECMWF pointstoward 6-8 inches north of I-96. We`ll see how the track of the low evolves over time. Thursday/Friday system looking better for SMI. You should be golden for that one up there. I'll likely be sweating it all week down here. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 10, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 10, 2019 Imo, the GFS solution is way too sloppy. I expect a 989mb system to be more tightly wound than what 18Z GFS showed. I'd expect more of a Euro solution from this. 3 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted February 10, 2019 Report Share Posted February 10, 2019 Clearly has the heaviest accum's in SMI, not CMI, yet here's my office's take You should be golden for that one up there. I'll likely be sweating it all week down here.Hope so! Stuck at home for two weeks ( just had twin boys!!!). Need to get out of the house and snow blow something! 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 11, 2019 Report Share Posted February 11, 2019 So it seems DMX thinking tonights' runs will have decent handle on it--- Thursday-Saturday Winter Weather Potential...Long range models suggesting yet another winter storms impacting theMidwest sometime during this timeframe. As anticipated inyesterday afternoon`s AFD, models are beginning to tighten on asolution and track... that actually looks somewhat similar to thiscurrent system... only potentially stronger, with a sfc lowpossibly dropping to 985mb and a 1030mb sfc high over thebackside. This would intuitively suggest a very strong windpotential with wintry precip.Tracing this system back to its source region takes us all the wayto the Gulf of Alaska. By 00z Mon... if this system holds... shouldbe much more well-defined and off the British Columbia coastline. Soam ultimately expecting an even bigger increase in model handling ofthis system with the 00z Mon models... until then not worth gettinginto details too much other than to say that this is something thatabsolutely bears monitoring. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 11, 2019 Report Share Posted February 11, 2019 Hope so! Stuck at home for two weeks ( just had twin boys!!!). Need to get out of the house and snow blow something! First of all, congrats on the growing fam! Second of all, condolences on your sleep, and related short-term sanity. I was you almost exactly 19 yrs ago as mine were born 2-11-00. In a couple yrs you'll be taking them out in sleds and such. The first 6-12 mos can be rough tho. I felt like my hobby life ceased to exist for a while but it's worth it. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted February 11, 2019 Report Share Posted February 11, 2019 Hope so! Stuck at home for two weeks ( just had twin boys!!!). Need to get out of the house and snow blow something! I had twins born on 1-26-19. Congrats! 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 11, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 11, 2019 Congrats Stasch and GDR! Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted February 11, 2019 Report Share Posted February 11, 2019 Thanks All. They were a month early so all they do is sleep and eat and poo. Been easy so far. I know that will change. Fun to track storms while I’m off work though! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 11, 2019 Report Share Posted February 11, 2019 Ugly gfs/icon runs for this system 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted February 11, 2019 Report Share Posted February 11, 2019 I had twins born on 1-26-19. Congrats!Congrats! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted February 11, 2019 Report Share Posted February 11, 2019 0Z GFS with another turd for Nebraska. Man this epic pattern is going to drop 1-5” total over the entire state. Guess it’ll eventually be proven why 12”, 10”, or heck even 8” storms are so rare despite the totals that those 10 day clown maps on the long range models keep showing. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 11, 2019 Report Share Posted February 11, 2019 Don't lose hope!!!! The trusty CMC still has it!! So that means it will not happen. 3 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 11, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 11, 2019 I'm regretting starting this thread now lol. Maybe Euro will have it still. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 11, 2019 Report Share Posted February 11, 2019 I'm regretting starting this thread now lol. Maybe Euro will have it still. We've regretted starting all but one thd in the SMI forum Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 11, 2019 Report Share Posted February 11, 2019 Pretty sure the UKIE lost it also. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 11, 2019 Report Share Posted February 11, 2019 Euro still has it, although weaker Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted February 11, 2019 Report Share Posted February 11, 2019 If there's actually moisture with this thing at least it should be pure snow. Sleet a few days ago, sleet this morning, and probably sleet tomorrow. Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 11, 2019 Report Share Posted February 11, 2019 6Z gfs continues a dud. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 11, 2019 Report Share Posted February 11, 2019 00z Euro still has it but not as robust as earlier runs...still some decent ensemble support but this overall set up is not really looking ideal for those weenie runs we saw earlier this week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 11, 2019 Report Share Posted February 11, 2019 00z Euro still has it but not as robust as earlier runs...still some decent ensemble support but this overall set up is not really looking ideal for those weenie runs we saw earlier this week. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 11, 2019 Report Share Posted February 11, 2019 NOAA: LONG TERM / THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAYA brief respite from the active weather pattern will occur Thursdaywith dry weather as the surface ridging quickly passes by. Attentionthen shifts to another very dynamic low pressure system ejecting outof the Plains Thursday night into Friday. There continues to remainsome differences in the track of the low, but long range guidancehas been in pretty good agreement that this system will potentiallybe even stronger as it deepens to the mid 980s hPa as it tracks nearthe region. Thermal profiles with this system suggest that anothersignificant winter storm will be possible, with snow being the mainptype. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 11, 2019 Report Share Posted February 11, 2019 GFS and ICON still showing little snow on Friday. A nice little appetizer before the big dog comes in early next week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 11, 2019 Report Share Posted February 11, 2019 It appears the 12z euro also dropped it. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 11, 2019 Report Share Posted February 11, 2019 I think models will have a better handle on this system once this upcoming storm exits the picture. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 12, 2019 Report Share Posted February 12, 2019 decent snows for KC at HR 96 etc. on GFS--- Clinton should be happy!!! 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 12, 2019 Report Share Posted February 12, 2019 It's good to see, I hope the NAM picks up on it tomorrow! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 12, 2019 Report Share Posted February 12, 2019 and another nice wave behind for NE,IA ,MO--- #BUILD THE GLACIER 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 12, 2019 Report Share Posted February 12, 2019 and another nice wave behind for NE,IA ,MO--- #BUILD THE GLACIERCMC also has this wave on Sunday, and this the part of the LRC that produced in both the first and second cycles. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted February 12, 2019 Report Share Posted February 12, 2019 Wow this coming weekend looking good so far! A couple decent hits across Nebraska and Iowa. Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 12, 2019 Report Share Posted February 12, 2019 Fv3 seems locked and loaded Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 12, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 12, 2019 Went ahead and extended the end date for this thread to the 17th cuz it looks like this thing may end up having multiple waves. There's been so many threads lately that I can't keep track of them all lol. Figured we may as well consolidate this weekend into one. 4 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 12, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 12, 2019 Euro, GFS, and FV3 are all good for here. I'm approaching this cautiously cuz all the past few times all the models have been good for here five days out, we've ended up with ≤1". 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 12, 2019 Report Share Posted February 12, 2019 00z Euro snow fall from the Fri/Sat wave... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 12, 2019 Report Share Posted February 12, 2019 00z Euro...2nd wave Sat/Sun... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.