2/14-2/17 Possible Winter Storm Train

[Grizzcoat]

Both waves- GFS

 

[Minny_Weather]

Second wave initializes well for here on 3km NAM. Here is the end of the run. 

[Hawkeye]

The 06z and 12z ICON runs have become much wetter across Iowa with the 2nd wave.

[OmahaSnowFan]

[CentralNebWeather]

CMC with a good hit for Nebraska, but a very weak 2nd wave.

[Hawkeye]

The Canadian has disliked the 2nd wave from the start.  

[Niko]

These waves are kinda difficult to comeby w a zonal flow, so most likely passing to my south seems like a good bet, although, southern portions may get clipped by some flurries or periods of light snow. I am too far north for anything the way models are painting this. We will see.

[gimmesnow]

That big one in Iowa is heading right for me and then it breaks up. That's not fair =[

[Hawkeye]

12z UK - both waves

 

[CentralNebWeather]

Cold front has come through, temp is dropping now into the mid 20's (was 40 when I got to school at 7 AM), with winds howling out of the Northwest gusting to 35 MPH

[East Dubzz]

12z UK - both waves

 

us_model-en-087-0_modgbr_2019021412_108_5660_220.png

This seems a lot more reasonable, and along the lines of what I’d expect. I’ll take it for sure. Will help get back some the snow we lose today.

[jaster220]

WPC's snowfall probability through Sunday morning...

 

Nice donut hole for us, eh? 

[Tom]

Nice donut hole for us, eh?

Not with the 2nd wave included...

[jaster220]

Not with the 2nd wave included...

 

Oh, thought that went out to cover both. 

[jaster220]

Not with the 2nd wave included...

 

2nd wave per GFS fizzles to this by the time it's here. Expecting 1-2" if lucky

 

[St Paul Storm]

Skies darkening here in a hurry. Nice band setting up to the west. Quick hitter for the afternoon commute.

[Minny_Weather]

Euro first wave. Second wave is just coming in but it looks way drier... Here at least. Most of Eastern Nebraska save for RIGHT on the Missouri River may be lucky to even see over an inch from the second wave.

[jcwxguy]

Closer look wave 1 Euro

[Clinton]

Euro first wave. Second wave is just coming in but it looks way drier... Here at least. Most of Eastern Nebraska save for RIGHT on the Missouri River may be lucky to even see over an inch from the second w

EURO is about as good as I could hope for on wave 1.

[jcwxguy]

Wave 2 euro

[Hawkeye]

Geez, euro, what the heck?  This is the only model moving all the second wave snow into northern Iowa.  The others are more general across Iowa.

[St Paul Storm]

This right now is the hardest it’s snowed all season. The outside world just disappeared. Holy friggin hell! Gosaints you will love this when it hits down there.

[Clinton]

NWS KC mentions a possible WSW upgrade.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions.
  Hazardous travel conditions are expected to impact the
  afternoon and evening commute, and perhaps the morning commute
  as well. There will be some potential for the Winter Weather
  Advisory to be upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning for
  locations in and around the Kansas City Metro Area, so
  continue to monitor the latest information from the National
  Weather Service.
 

[jcwxguy]

Omaha folks shouldn't look at 18z nam

[Minny_Weather]

Every model is consistently showing something drastically different. Don't worry guys, it's still less than 24 hours out. I'm sure models will be more consistent once the storm passes.

[jcwxguy]

18z nam

[jcwxguy]

3km nam bullseye Lincoln. What could go wrong

[East Dubzz]

NAM looks pretty rough on the second wave.

[Minny_Weather]

That's a disheartening NAM run for Omaha, wow. Not even an inch in Western parts of Douglas County.

[East Dubzz]

NAM seemed to move more towards the Euro on that run with the second wave, with the heaviest precip falling towards northern Iowa. But even that is not too much.

[CentralNebWeather]

I was just added to the Winter Weather Advisory, kind of wondered why I wasn't in it earlier, but no biggie.  NWS Hastings saying 2-5" with locally higher amounts but light winds.  Rarely does that happen around here.

[CentralNebWeather]

Really glad we are leaving for KC this evening and not going there tomorrow.  Might get kind of nasty on the roads tomorrow, though wind should not be an issue.  

[jcwxguy]

18z gfs

[OmahaSnowFan]

[Craig-OmahaWX]

Wow the GFS and the NAM not good runs for Omaha. The hires NAM is just crazy. 5 inches for western Douglas County and 0 for the far northeast.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

JC do you have the 18z euro?

[East Dubzz]

You Nebraska people are funny haha. Must be from too much corn syrup in the beer.

[jcwxguy]

JC do you have the 18z euro?

it's not out yet

[snowstorm83]

Iowa has bad corn!

[snowstorm83]

OAX Grids have "heavy snow" wording in the forecast tomorrow for Lincoln. With high ratios and low winds, this may be KLNK's best shot at a 6"+ event all winter. Funny since it's barely a storm and more like a moderate clipper passing through quickly.