February 2019 Weather Observations and Discussion Part 2

[Jesse]

Probably would have gotten a little bit of snow if this system came in 3 hours earlier. Warming up above freezing with some very light precipitation moving in from the nw. 

 

How cold did you get overnight? I fell to 28. It was a pretty and frosty sunrise.

[snow_wizard]

Snowing a little bit harder but the south wind has kicked in.  Amazing how many days at least some flakes have fallen from the sky this month.

 

One more thought about the Monday situation is keep in mind the models usually don't send moisture far enough north on the north side of a low in cases like this.  I think places from Seattle south will still get some snow even with a favorable track for Portland.

[ShawniganLake]

Rain just turned to heavy snow here.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Dumping here and 31. 1/2 inch new.

[FroYoBro]

How cold did you get overnight? I fell to 28. It was a pretty and frosty sunrise.

29 here. Up to 34 now. 

[snow_wizard]

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/monanom.shtml

 

No model on that page agrees with one another for anything in March. Tough call given were on the shoulder of the season.

 

These are only anomalies though.  Minus anomalies can happen in any season.

[seattleweatherguy]

Just drove to East Redmond and it was snowing almost the whole way.

 

 

sticking at all? Hope the eruo turns more north otherwise my area may be shut out for sat thru tues

[MossMan]

Snowing and blowing here. 36.2 with a DP of 29

[HighlandExperience]

Snowing and blowing here. 36.2 with a DP of 29

 

The central sound is being heavily shadowed right now. 

[Jesse]

29 here. Up to 34 now. 

 

33 and clouding up here. Would be nice to see some flakes at least.

[TT-SEA]

The central sound is being heavily shadowed right now. 

 

 

40 at SEA now with a south wind gusting to 29.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The 12z UKMET precipitation maps for Monday. Looks snowy for the WV. Tiger Woods gets ironed.

 

[HighlandExperience]

40 at SEA now with a south wind gusting to 29.

 

Ya it is warming up fast. 

[Perturbed Member]

You are starting to change your tune a bit.

 

Would be nice. I'm not aware of the track record of trends on the 06Z Euro being picked up on and being continued by the 12Z, or how common that is. Has anyone else noticed?

 

I followed the 06z and 18z euro runs during the last event that went to Seattle, I didn't observe any major differences between the 12z or 00z runs. They seemed pretty much inline. 

[Esquimalt]

Gfs ensembles and operation agree with 2-4 inches here on Sunday morning. It’s more or less on its own so I’m not entirely convinced but I’m impressed about the consistency of the gfs on this

[Perturbed Member]

Precip has reached me. 32.3F and snowing lightly. DP of 30. 

[Bryant]

I enjoyed the 12z ICON run, let's see if it's leading the way

[Geos]

Went through an area of large flakes in east Kirkland.

[Jesse]

I enjoyed the 12z ICON run, let's see if it's leading the way

What are you 16????

[TT-SEA]

FWIW... the WRF shows lots of snow in Portland and southward on Monday morning and just about totally misses the Seattle area.   The snow total maps have not updated yet.   But if the 12Z ECMWF still shows the same scenario as its 00Z run then the WRF is just plain wrong about the northern extent of the snow... which happens all the time. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Precip has reached me. 32.3F and snowing lightly. DP of 30.

Nice, I'm out in Hillsboro but stuck in the Fab at the moment. No access to windows so can't see outside yet.

[Bryant]

What are you 16????

After seeing all the sh*t on here the past 48 hours, I'm not going to sit back and hope I don't get snow just so some random internet people in Oregon can stop whining. You get some and you give some, and my preference on model solutions makes no difference on what will actually happen

 

For the record, I doubt I'll see any snow from this in the first place, I'm too far north. One can wishcast though

[MossMan]

Some big league gusts here with light snow swirling all around. Everything is frozen solid despite it being 35. Oh the power of the dew point!

[Perturbed Member]

Nice, I'm out in Hillsboro but stuck in the Fab at the moment. No access to windows so can't see outside yet.

 

Mostly just tiny flakes floating around, precip rate is low but it is fun to see the snow.

[luvssnow_spokane]

[Snowman5678]

sticking at all? Hope the eruo turns more north otherwise my area may be shut out for sat thru tues

 

Just a dusting so far NE of Redmond. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Here is the 12z FV3 snow totals through Monday 4pm. Take these with a grain if salt, likely overdoing it but it's useful to see which areas get hit the most and if you look at the 06z EURO they both show Beaver Nation in the bullseye for now.

 

[Esquimalt]

GFS ensembles continue the cooler trend in the mid to long range  

[Perturbed Member]

Yeah this will be too light to do anything but still a little fun. The cameras in the coast range under the precip aren't showing any accumulation even with temps around 30-31. 

[Winterdog]

Some big league gusts here with light snow swirling all around. Everything is frozen solid despite it being 35. Oh the power of the dew point!

Same here earlier but the Olympics shadow is doing me in again.

[MossMan]

Temp down to 34.8. Still light flakes swirling.

[Perturbed Member]

Pretty decent snowfall rate now, a bit above freezing though. 33.3F.

[epiceast]

Regional snowstorm!

[TacomaWaWx]

Well it looks like Monday may end up good for Portland after all! North end of the precip will probably make to Seattle or just north at best, good for me in Tacoma id be happy with an inch of snow...good for Portland if this pans out really happy for y’all if it does!

[MossMan]

I shortened the AFD and just kept the highlights...

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Seattle WA

927 AM PST Fri Feb 22 2019

 

winding down of activity and little if any snowfall or accumulation

expected. As such...will treat as a minor irritant at best for now.

 

Models diverge again after that as the ECMWF keeps a

troughy pattern over the Pac NW while the GFS ushers in a pretty

steep ridge from over the Pacific. Fortunately...no matter which

model is right regarding the upper level systems...precip and what

have you...the consensus is that snow levels will climb

throughout the long term period...getting up to the 3000-4000 ft

range by Thursday/Friday and as such any precip from Wednesday on

will be liquid. Should this remain consistent in future runs...may

finally be able to put the specter of this winter in the rear

view mirror. SMR

[TT-SEA]

Well it looks like Monday may end up good for Portland after all! North end of the precip will probably make to Seattle or just north at best, good for me in Tacoma id be happy with an inch of snow...good for Portland if this pans out really happy for y’all if it does!

 

 

This is a huge ECMWF run coming up.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS ensembles are really interesting! Big dip now at PDX for Thursday/Friday, and then a lot of really cold members around the 4th. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Nws Seattle still being very conservative as usual lol, yes big run on the euro coming up will be interesting to see how it pans out

[epiceast]

This is a Critical ECMWF run coming up.  

Fixed

[MossMan]

Nws Seattle still being very conservative as usual lol, yes big run on the euro coming up will be interesting to see how it pans out

The low will probably end up crashing into San Francisco. Never underestimate the power of the Tim!