February 2019 Weather Observations and Discussion Part 2

[Timmy]

18z looks nearly identical. Maybe heavier precipitation rates?

worse for pdx

[Requiem]

worse for pdx

Not really, it compensated for the earlier lack of precipitation with some lingering snow afterwards. Still think it should be a bit more north (apparently NWS and Mark agree).

[joaqweri]

18z GFS went even further south. bad for snow fans both in PDX and SEA.

[Perturbed Member]

Less precip all around on the 18z

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS is exactly the same as 12z. Cape Blanco...Just isn't as juicy as other models.

[Perturbed Member]

FV3 is a bit north of its last 2 runs (which were just ridiculously far south)

 

 

[Deweydog]

Matt is skeptical about the sno. Borderline gonna borderline. If we play our cards right then mmmaaaybe some white bark as we head into the evening.

VERY sharp cutoff at the Amphitheater with this one. Your south of that, right??

[SilverFallsAndrew]

FV-3 says Cape Blanco too. Not bad, that can trend to Coos Bay on game day.

[ShawniganLake]

I may be in a minority on here but I actually really like our springs. It's the one time of year everything looks super lush and green while we still have snow in the mountains. That said, I think your area is probably a bit gloomier than here in the spring.

I think spring is generally nicer in Victoria than places further north. If even just a bit of instibility exists, we generally end up with cloudy showery afternoons here closer to the mountains.

[wxmet]

Zonally oriented trough can make it hard to pin point which areas will get hit with the heaviest snow as any slight deviations to the north or south can take areas in or out of the snow axis. This is why there's a fairly sharp cut-off on some of the models. Not an ideal situation for the PNW. We would want a more meridionally oriented trough where the downstream southerlies allows the system to go north or a better positioned trough whose base doesn't dig way out into the Pacific.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

FV3 is a bit north of its last 2 runs (which were just ridiculously far south)

 

 

Yeah, higher snow totals for PDX Metro on this run.

[Jesse]

18z GFS went even further south. bad for snow fans both in PDX and SEA.

Same track just less moisture.

[BLI snowman]

VERY sharp cutoff at the Amphitheater with this one. Your south of that, right??

 

Just past it. Might need to move the Amphitheater to be on the safe side.

[Deweydog]

Just past it. Might need to move the Amphitheater to be on the safe side.

Better start working them phones...

[VancouverIslandSouth]

I think spring is generally nicer in Victoria than places further north. If even just a bit of instibility exists, we generally end up with cloudy showery afternoons here closer to the mountains.

 

I think Victoria has some of the best spring weather in the region, a good balance of sun/rain. I never found spring up to be nearly as nice up around Nanoose. Many places further north and particularly the Vancouver area can get pretty socked in with low cloud during the spring. Every other season is far more enjoyable up island.

[ShawniganLake]

I think Victoria has some of the best spring weather in the region, a good balance of sun/rain. I never found spring up to be nearly as nice up around Nanoose. Many places further north and particularly the Vancouver area can get pretty socked in with low cloud during the spring. Every other season is far more enjoyable up island.

I definitely agree.

[ShawniganLake]

42F with some light rain at times this afternoon. There were some nice sun breaks earlier. GFS continues to show a decent amount of precip here overnight

[Frontal Snowsquall]

One thing I am a little concerned about- if this does occur people are very reluctant to accept any sort of forecast right now. Especially seeing how things went a couple weeks ago. Could cause a nightmare commute if people choose not to listen.

Yeah, I was thinking the same thing. Plus it's very late in the season so people won't think it will be as bad. The good thing is that the moisture should arrive early enough in the day where they don't have to make that tough decision of whether or not I should go to work or not.

[TT-SEA]

About 10 minutes before we left for Hawaii... right when the snow was ending and at peak depth.

 

 

And earlier this afternoon...

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

D**n the gfs is looking cold next weekend. Crazy block.

[TT-SEA]

Different perspective... taken from the same window.   Right before we left and were trying to dig out (my son using the snow blower) and then earlier this afternoon.

 

 

[Deweydog]

Different perspective... taken from the same window. Right before we left and were trying to dig out (my son using the snow blower) and then earlier this afternoon.

 

 

Looks like you’ve had some sublimation.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Pretty crazy pics Tim. Looks like you still have quite a bit. 

[TT-SEA]

Pretty crazy pics Tim. Looks like you still have quite a bit. 

 

 

Yeah... it still seems like its pretty deep but then I look back at pics when it was at its peak and it does not seem like so much now.  

[epiceast]

What's crazy is that I don't think some of the models were showing snow totals anything like we're seeing now. The snow made it much further North than was expected.

 

Double deformation band is not a normal setup... But it would be nice to see  a wet heavy high qpf snow band hit PDX and than a quarter inch half a foot snowstorm in SEA from the same system

[GHweatherChris]

Snow mixing in this shower overhead, good to see!

 

Edit- almost all snow now, temp was 45 when precip started, dropped to 37 so far.

[HighlandExperience]

Snow mixing in this shower overhead, good to see!

 

Edit- almost all snow now, temp was 45 when precip started, dropped to 37 so far.

Those showers over your area look intense. It be nice if they make it this way

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Double deformation band is not a normal setup... But it would be nice to see  a wet heavy high qpf snow band hit PDX and than a quarter inch half a foot snowstorm in SEA from the same system

 

Yeah, that was a wild set-up 5 years ago. Mark said on his blog that some of us will get buried with beautiful heavy snow and some of us will get hosed with little or no snow.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

New video update from Rod. He thinks widespread snow from Longview all the way down to Albany is pretty likely.

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

18z gfs ends in a cold and maybe snowy pattern. Unbelievable.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Another good sign. NWS DECREASING forecast snow totals for inland zones to 1-3". 

[Requiem]

Another good sign. NWS DECREASING forecast snow totals for inland zones to 1-3".

Not a good sign /:

 

Hopefully the GFS trends a bit northward!

[jakeinthevalley]

Not a good sign /:

 

Hopefully the GFS trends a bit northward!

So much to learn about protocol here

[SilverFallsAndrew]

An interesting observation. During the events earlier in February W. WA posters were essentially spiking the football on the 10 yard line. Celebrating the events 24-36 hours ahead of time. Southern posters are much more fatalistic about their possibilities. 

[TT-SEA]

Took some pics going down to North Bend just now...

 

 

This is the mountain of snow dumped just outside the subdivision at the main exit in North Bend. They used dump trucks to clear the snow from the neighborhood.

 

 

And yet there is green grass opening up in North Bend...

 

[Requiem]

So much to learn about protocol here

I dunno, I trust the NWS for the complex scenarios like this one.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I dunno, I trust the NWS for the complex scenarios like this one.

 

Oh lord.

[Requiem]

Oh lord.

Not good?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Portland NWS is playing this one EXTREMELY conservatively. Said there is now a chance of rain snow mix south of Albany. lol

[Requiem]

Portland NWS is playing this one EXTREMELY conservatively. Said there is now a chance of rain snow mix south of Albany. lol

Maybe I’m just worrying too much about the southern trend. I do understand why they may be playing this one conservatively though.