Clinton Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 12z Euro a little weaker. Still impressive for October. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 Is that snow in Cedar Rapids for the Thursday storm? There are two storms which makes this confusing to track. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 Is that snow in Cedar Rapids for the Thursday storm? There are two storms which makes this confusing to track. This run gives Cedar Rapids 2in from first wave and 3 from the second wave. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 Major weakening on the euro. Most of that snow in eastern Iowa is from the first wave. Euro shows 3-5” on E Iowa on the first wave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 Some ensembles give some decent accumulations even for my area Number 8 would be NUTS, lol. GFS at it's finest with the teasing.. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 I think the 2nd waves' track is highly dependent on what the first wave does.(and where any snow gets laid down, even for a day or so). I wouldn't get excited either way for the 2nd wave until the first wave moves on through and does it's thing.Also- one would think based on climate that the 2nd wave would more favor the Dakotas' and MN - but Texas recently seeing TSSN - all bets are off on that and this air mass for mid-week is near records for lows. Anyone remember 1997? 7" of snow here in DSM late OCT right when the Marlins won the World Series. Power outages due to leaves still on trees.Yes I remember that storm very well. Got 6” here from that one including lightning and thunder. I have pics of the snow. There were a few comments about this storm in the October thread a number of days ago. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 I don’t have any real skin in the game, but here’s a good reminder from MPX: As this system is still 5-6 days out,and any small deviation to the initialization of the models occur,this will lead to larger differences in the deterministic runs outin time. The best method is to hold onto the ensemble blend anddiscuss the potential of a storm system next Thursday. Please stayaware of the forecast late next week as it does have the potentialof dropping lots of snow, with localized strong surface winds. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 There is much more model agreement today with the GFS now showing asimilar solution to what the Euro has had the past couple days. Thecold front stalls out around SE MI, perhaps just east of the regionWednesday. This stationary boundary becomes the focal point forisentropic lift which will bring widespread rain mainly for areassouth of I-69 starting in the afternoon Wednesday. A new surface lowdevelops on the southern tail of this front over the central Plainsand begins moving northeast during the day Thursday. The upper leveltrough quickly becomes negatively tilted during this time allowingfor rapid deepening and intensification of the surface low as itreaches the central Great Lakes. The system tracks across the stateearly Friday and is over northern Ontario by Friday night. Heavyrain is possible though the exact location of where the heaviestrain sets up is still uncertain. Some snow showers or a least a fewflakes are likely on the backend of this storm as a cold airmasssettles in. Highs Friday and Saturday will only be in the 40`s. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 Good write up by Hastings today. Gonna be an interesting week of model watching ahead of us! The second potential accumulating snow is more impressive and boththe GFS/ECMWF have a closed and deepening/dynamic upper low rollingacross northern Kansas. Baroclinicity strengthens across the systemas very cold air filters in. Precipitable water availability isquite a bit higher thanks to the slower/digging/closed nature of thelow. All of this seems to spell an increasing shot at accumulatingsnow for much of the forecast Wednesday/Wednesday night and possibleearly Thursday during the day. Winds with the system aren`t terriblystrong but strong enough for some blowing snow potential later inthe day Wednesday. The evolution of this second system is worthwatching closely, keeping in mind things are still 4-5 days out. Asfor now, the forecast reflects a rise in precipitation chances mid-week for this system. Aside from the precipitation events, the main story is the cold formost of the week. After the initial influx of cold air Saturdaynight, cold advection levels off Monday and temperatures are bitmore steady, but still cold. The cold air will deepen significantlyon Tuesday night and Wednesday with -10 to -12C H85 temperatures.There is some potential for near record lows in spots. You will alsohave the opportunity to try on some single digit wind chills aswell. Temperatures may find some rebound Friday and Saturday, butwill still be quite a bit below seasonal normals, and may beaffected by some snow cover. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 Icon pushing back se Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 Gfs moving father SE this run as well Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 Des Moines take on it. They make some good and interesting points. The cold airmass will persist into Tuesday as a vigorous upper lowdigs south through the intermountain west Tuesday into Tuesdaynight. This system remains the elephant in the room so to speakand will likely generate a lot of interest as it approaches theMidwest Wednesday night into Thursday night. A fewitems to remember with this system. First this system remains wellnorth over the Arctic Ocean an in a region with lowinstrumentation for analysis. Second is model biases. These upperlows tend to arrive slower and farther northwest post cyclogenesison the east side of the Rockies. This system will likely produceaccumulating snowfall somewhere along its path with a gooddeformation precipitation band expected. However, a large amountof uncertainty regarding the timing and projected path make itunreasonable to project snow amounts for Iowa at this time. TheECMWF made a nw jump today with the upper low while projecting alarge gap between the upper low and a surface low well to theeast, which is not likely. In addition, there is a significantspread amongst the GFS deterministic run and its ensembles, withthe ensemble mean farther west and slower than even the ECMWF. Thecurrent forecast will continue to carry snow mention but at thistime, it remains well too early to ramp up messaging beyond coldand some snow accumulations possible due to aforementionedreasons. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 Gfs a little stronger on the 18z run with snow in South East Nebraska. Sweet. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 I don’t have any real skin in the game, but here’s a good reminder from MPX: As this system is still 5-6 days out,and any small deviation to the initialization of the models occur,this will lead to larger differences in the deterministic runs outin time. The best method is to hold onto the ensemble blend anddiscuss the potential of a storm system next Thursday. Please stayaware of the forecast late next week as it does have the potentialof dropping lots of snow, with localized strong surface winds. Next to LOT, your office seems to be about the most level-headed (aka professional balanced approach) wrt approach to the medium to long range. Not over-hyping, nor total discounting (see GRR most times), but instead maintaining proper perspective. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 Gfs a little stronger on the 18z run with snow in South East Nebraska. Sweet. Omaha and Lincoln get smoked. So laughable that the GFS was by far the weakest like yesterday and now it's the most juiced. 3 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 18z gfs 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 Gfs moving father SE this run as well Gfs a little stronger on the 18z run with snow in South East Nebraska. Sweet. I'd take this and call it a "win" Edit: What a way to open Novembrr! 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 My goodness.. The GFS looks almost as impressive as the Euro did a few days ago. I still don't think it's possible for Cedar Rapids to see 11.6 inches of snow in October. That would be unprecedented. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 Omaha and Lincoln get smoked. So laughable that the GFS was by far the weakest like yesterday and now it's the most juiced. (Shhh! don't tell TOL_Weather) 4 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 18z GFS.... LOCK IT IN. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubuque473 Posted October 26, 2019 Report Share Posted October 26, 2019 14.8” heh heh..18z GFS....LOCK IT IN. 1 Quote Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter 78.1" Total snowfall February Snowfall 32.5" City salt usage : 12,211 tons Days of measurable snow : 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 27, 2019 Report Share Posted October 27, 2019 I have a running bet with my dad about snow here in Omaha but if some of those actually happen in central Missouri I think he would go crazy lol. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 27, 2019 Report Share Posted October 27, 2019 Number 15 please! The NW shift last night stinks but this winter will have lots of action for all of us.You betcha! 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 27, 2019 Report Share Posted October 27, 2019 Thursday nite into Friday morning could produce some snowshowers and wind here in mby from the backside of the low. Cold air filtering in behind this system could make for a snowy Friday commute b4 it ends. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted October 27, 2019 Report Share Posted October 27, 2019 Dear God it's only the 18z GFS but what a run. Even with a SE or NE shift I'm still in the game. I think we all knew it would come around considering all the other globals were showing a storm. What a fun storm to track.....AND IT'S ONLY OCTOBER 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted October 27, 2019 Report Share Posted October 27, 2019 Here’s a headline in Texas after the recent Panhandle snow: “Pampa, TX – Heavy Snow, Whiteout Conditions, Stranded Motorists” Yeah. I’ve never seen this so early. That storm packed a punch. Preview of the winter? 2 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 27, 2019 Report Share Posted October 27, 2019 Here’s a headline in Texas after the recent Panhandle snow: “Pampa, TX – Heavy Snow, Whiteout Conditions, Stranded Motorists” Yeah. I’ve never seen this so early. That storm packed a punch. Preview of the winter? WOW Olga still raging here..winds are next! Her precip shield earlier was actually very wide and almost even west to well east of her center. Very bliz of '99-like. Had a thought. What if it were possible to get a copy of every major winter storm from the past 100 yrs...all in the same season 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted October 27, 2019 Report Share Posted October 27, 2019 yep just lock that 18z gfs in 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 27, 2019 Report Share Posted October 27, 2019 Dear God it's only the 18z GFS but what a run. Even with a SE or NE shift I'm still in the game. I think we all knew it would come around considering all the other globals were showing a storm. What a fun storm to track.....AND IT'S ONLY OCTOBER Guess I hadn't realized how similar today's Euro and GFS ended up being Euro GFS 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaHawkeyes Posted October 27, 2019 Report Share Posted October 27, 2019 so i am confused what day do the models have the most snow in iowa?? monday night or thursday? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 27, 2019 Report Share Posted October 27, 2019 Here’s a headline in Texas after the recent Panhandle snow: “Pampa, TX – Heavy Snow, Whiteout Conditions, Stranded Motorists” Yeah. I’ve never seen this so early. That storm packed a punch. Preview of the winter?Incredible .... Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 27, 2019 Report Share Posted October 27, 2019 Guess I hadn't realized how similar today's Euro and GFS ended up being Euro 20191026-12z Euro_mslpa_us.png GFS 20191026-18z GFS_mslpa_us.pngAnd recently, both were so apart. It took GFS some time to realize it though. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted October 27, 2019 Report Share Posted October 27, 2019 so i am confused what day do the models have the most snow in iowa?? monday night or thursday? Thursday most, Monday night 1-3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 27, 2019 Report Share Posted October 27, 2019 Gfs a little stronger on the 18z run with snow in South East Nebraska. Sweet.Hope ya score big! 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted October 27, 2019 Report Share Posted October 27, 2019 Hope ya score big! Not to say I can't share the wealth, but I would love a nice snow storm. That and now I have two bets, with the wife and my dad over this storm lol. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 27, 2019 Report Share Posted October 27, 2019 Not to say I can't share the wealth, but I would love a nice snow storm. That and now I have two bets, with the wife and my dad over this storm lol. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted October 27, 2019 Report Share Posted October 27, 2019 Icon back NW 995 L in E WI at 120 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted October 27, 2019 Report Share Posted October 27, 2019 Icon back NW 995 L in E WI at 120 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted October 27, 2019 Report Share Posted October 27, 2019 Southeast shift with 00z GFS (least over Nebraska) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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