Mi_Matthew Posted November 23, 2019 Report Share Posted November 23, 2019 Any of my fellow Michiganders follow Mark Torregrossa on Mlive.com? He's usually a pretty good read and will often throw in some old-school forecasting rules I have either heard and forgotten or are new to me. From his recent post regarding the pattern over the next two weeks, "When we get into these active southwest flow patterns, there are usually four storm systems, with the third storm usually being the strongest." I wonder which storm we would consider the first though. If we count the recent rainer(for most) as number 1, the weaker current system as 2, the pre-Turkey Day is the big one, followed by December 1st/2nd as the 4th. Anybody else ever heard this "rule" before? https://connect.mlive.com/staff/torregrossa/posts.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 23, 2019 Report Share Posted November 23, 2019 Any of my fellow Michiganders follow Mark Torregrossa on Mlive.com? He's usually a pretty good read and will often throw in some old-school forecasting rules I have either heard and forgotten or are new to me. From his recent post regarding the pattern over the next two weeks, "When we get into these active southwest flow patterns, there are usually four storm systems, with the third storm usually being the strongest." I wonder which storm we would consider the first though. If we count the recent rainer(for most) as number 1, the weaker current system as 2, the pre-Turkey Day is the big one, followed by December 1st/2nd as the 4th. Anybody else ever heard this "rule" before? https://connect.mlive.com/staff/torregrossa/posts.html Thx for posting that link. I like MT and during winter will read his articles I just lost all my saved sites when my laptop died and am slowly rebuilding my library. Not sure I've heard of the "group of 4" storms but it sounds vaguely familiar. I do remember in late Jan early Feb of '82 we had 3 systems in a row hit SEMI in about an 8 day period. In that case tho, the first storm was the biggie at 10-12", then #2 was a 5-8" hit, and finally #3 was more like a 2-4" deal. Snow depths were awesome all across SMI at the end of that stormy week. I expect we may see something similar this winter. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 23, 2019 Report Share Posted November 23, 2019 Attm, clear skies and temp is at 25F. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 23, 2019 Report Share Posted November 23, 2019 The pattern looks great w blocking for early December n beyond. I am watching next weekend. My forecast has snow for Friday nite into Saturday. Also, epo goes negative. Next week should be a dull week weatherwise w rain by Tuesday into Wed. It starts getting colder by Turkey Day. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mi_Matthew Posted November 23, 2019 Report Share Posted November 23, 2019 Nothing to write home about, but the 0z GFS puts SE Michigan back in the game for a light accumulation tomorrow night. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mi_Matthew Posted November 23, 2019 Report Share Posted November 23, 2019 Also, apparently the debut run of the "GFS Hi-res" on pivotal weather. Hmmm... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 23, 2019 Report Share Posted November 23, 2019 NOAA: Compact upper wave entering southern Saskatchewan will be racingeast and the height fall center will be tracking through thenorthern Great Lakes on Saturday. Meanwhile, closed/elongated upperlevel low over the Central Plains opens up and tracks through thesouthern Ohio Valley. 700 MB Theta-e ridge looks to rotate northwardand reach southern Lake Erie into northwest Ohio. It continues tolook like a real close call, but low level dry air is expected tohold over southeast Michigan as the next shortwave trough/energyentering the western Great Lakes/Midwest Saturday evening shouldassure the lead system remains progressive and pulls east. Even ifprecip did somehow make it past the border, thermal profilessuggests just rain becoming wet snow flakes. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mi_Matthew Posted November 23, 2019 Report Share Posted November 23, 2019 The pattern looks great w blocking for early December n beyond. I am watching next weekend. My forecast has snow for Friday nite into Saturday. Also, epo goes negative. Next week should be a dull week weatherwise w rain by Tuesday into Wed. It starts getting colder by Turkey Day.I wouldn't write it off as dull just yet. Seems like the biggest surprises in this young season occur in the 36-48 hours out window. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 23, 2019 Report Share Posted November 23, 2019 I wouldn't write it off as dull just yet. Seems like the biggest surprises in this young season occur in the 36-48 hours out window.Well, hope you are right, otherwise, yes, it will be dull! Not writing off this storm, just implying that it looks like more of an rainevent. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mi_Matthew Posted November 23, 2019 Report Share Posted November 23, 2019 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mi_Matthew Posted November 23, 2019 Report Share Posted November 23, 2019 Somebody in OH, maybe even IN is going to score pretty big tomorrow, IMO. 0z HRRR depicting 1012mb surface low in northern MS @ hour 5 down to 995mb roughly 24 hours later in western PA. Should be fun to watch radar trends tomorrow, if nothing else. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted November 23, 2019 Report Share Posted November 23, 2019 GFS continues to show some impressive cold diving down in early December. 3 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted November 23, 2019 Report Share Posted November 23, 2019 GFS and Euro now showing a huge bowling ball upper low tracking eastward across the country at the end of the month into early December. Both dump quite a bit of snow on the northern plains. 3 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 23, 2019 Author Report Share Posted November 23, 2019 The storm system taking shape at the end of the month is one to watch as the pattern gets really blocked up. After analyzing the LRC, this storm may be correlating better with the Oct 9th-13th Dakota's Blizzard that lambasted the Upper MW. The storm we are tracking next Tue/Wed looks like its lining up with the Oct 5th-6th storm but tracking farther south this time due to seasonal differences and blocking. I'd watch for farther shifts in the late month storm in the days ahead. With that being said, the 00z GEFS continue to show a big Canadian "Banana HP" which allows the storm to slow down and "bowl" its way West/East across the Plains/MW. Check out the shifts S in just 24 hours of runs from yesterday's 06z compared to the 06z run this morning...this is going to be a fun storm to track during the Holiday next week. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 23, 2019 Author Report Share Posted November 23, 2019 It's hard not to get excited about the Holidays as Chicago held their annual Christmas Tree lighting last night and the Magnificent Mile Lights Festival is being held tonight. Let the holiday festivities begin! All we need now is some snow and cold...I'm thinking of taking out my holiday lights/decor today and prep for putting them up next week sometime. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 23, 2019 Report Share Posted November 23, 2019 Attm, sunny and cold w temps at 27F. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIKEKC Posted November 23, 2019 Report Share Posted November 23, 2019 There has been some mention of the up coming storms as being repeats of cycle one per the LRC......early October. However, at that time there was not a big wet storm crashing into California. There is one this week...so, how does that match up? I think cycle one has yet to complete. The storms this week are part of cycle one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 23, 2019 Report Share Posted November 23, 2019 Just talked to a buddy back home sounds like we had about 1/2 inch of snow last night. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 23, 2019 Author Report Share Posted November 23, 2019 Just talked to a buddy back home sounds like we had about 1/2 inch of snow last night.This system in mid & late Winter should produce more than it has during this cycle. More juice to work with later on in the season. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 23, 2019 Report Share Posted November 23, 2019 Dang. West Texas and Western OK looking like a white Thanksgiving on GFS. Still time for south and east on that, but Texas has a huge snowpack after that run. Interesting. 6z, that is, 12z starting.... 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 23, 2019 Report Share Posted November 23, 2019 Guess a few light snow flurries fell in the area this morning. "Area Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service Tulsa OK519 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2019 .AVIATION...CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.Areas of light drizzle, mixed with a few snow flurries, will continuefor the next few hours across northwest Arkansas before precipitationshifts east of the region. Ceilings heights will rise generally fromwest to east with VFR conditions expected across NW AR by 18Z." 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted November 23, 2019 Report Share Posted November 23, 2019 Dang. West Texas and Western OK looking like a white Thanksgiving on GFS. Still time for south and east on that, but Texas has a huge snowpack after that run. Interesting.6z, that is, 12z starting....I'm sure that's all Panhandle and maybe into Lubbock, Wichita Falls.Takes a hard push and deep moist cold to give DFW 3-5" of snow. Please, no ice, k?We usually don't see it till after Jan. 1st anyway. Check your tires and emergency road supplies folks. It's gonna be an interesting winter. Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 23, 2019 Report Share Posted November 23, 2019 Its cold currently (At 28F w partly cloudy skies)...waiting for my workers to come and install my decor outside. Hope they are bundled up. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 23, 2019 Report Share Posted November 23, 2019 Loving this 12z GFS run. Large snowpack across much of the Central US if it verifies. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted November 23, 2019 Report Share Posted November 23, 2019 Loving this 12z GFS run. Large snowpack across much of the Central US if it verifies. Quite the storm potential as the deep upper trough ejects into the plains. There should be a ton of available moisture. 3 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 23, 2019 Report Share Posted November 23, 2019 Quite the storm potential as the deep upper trough ejects into the plains. There should be a ton of available moisture.You’re right. This is potentially much more exciting than last November around here. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIKEKC Posted November 23, 2019 Report Share Posted November 23, 2019 You’re right. This is potentially much more exciting than last November around here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 23, 2019 Report Share Posted November 23, 2019 What a week depicted here. Except for that hole. Lol Where I am.. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 23, 2019 Report Share Posted November 23, 2019 Snows for 42 hours on the GFS. Gotta love it. Unfortunately the only way to go is down from there. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 23, 2019 Report Share Posted November 23, 2019 It's hard not to get excited about the Holidays as Chicago held their annual Christmas Tree lighting last night and the Magnificent Mile Lights Festival is being held tonight. Let the holiday festivities begin! All we need now is some snow and cold...I'm thinking of taking out my holiday lights/decor today and prep for putting them up next week sometime. Fantastic! I get to clean up my Nov leafs that covered everything after the storm this week. Then to finish up my outside lights! Have fun bud 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 23, 2019 Report Share Posted November 23, 2019 Canadian actually quite similar to the GFS. Monster storm that sits and spins. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 23, 2019 Report Share Posted November 23, 2019 Hi-res GFS now available on pivotal, 3 hour increments. Although not many options to choose from. Maybe it’s been on there a while and I just missed it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 23, 2019 Report Share Posted November 23, 2019 Canadian actually quite similar to the GFS. Monster storm that sits and spins.Euro agrees 981 in N IL at 192 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 23, 2019 Report Share Posted November 23, 2019 Looks like it gets it down to 974 in southern WI Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted November 23, 2019 Report Share Posted November 23, 2019 Hi-res GFS now available on pivotal, 3 hour increments. Although not many options to choose from. Maybe it’s been on there a while and I just missed it.I think it’s new. I don’t remember seeing it. Good find. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 23, 2019 Report Share Posted November 23, 2019 So..........this. Back to back slam jobs. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 23, 2019 Report Share Posted November 23, 2019 Looks like it gets it down to 974 in southern WIThis second storm is an absolute beast on Euro, GFS and GEM. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 23, 2019 Report Share Posted November 23, 2019 This second storm is an absolute beast on Euro, GFS and GEM.Goes from 993 to 974 in like 24 hours Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 23, 2019 Report Share Posted November 23, 2019 Goes from 993 to 974 in like 24 hoursNot sure I can recall a storm that nearly bombs out over N IL. Lots of unhappy travelers in the Midwest if it verifies. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 23, 2019 Author Report Share Posted November 23, 2019 12z Euro....#BuildTheGlacier.... 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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