BLI snowman Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 18z looks disgustingly dry. Hopefully wetter runs to come. I'll take the offshore flow at this point provided it is actually cold. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 I'll take the offshore flow at this point provided it is actually cold. We seem overdue for a wet May/June combo. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 I love the small reversal of the 18Z. Very complex pattern coming ahead. Hopefully good runs ahead, 18Z Euro was better. Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 Dec 2013 It was a fun few hours. Pretty much gone two days later. I don’t care much for the one and done quick overrunners. If we have had a week with snow on the ground and below freezing temps and then an overrunning event...that works. Give me a December 2008 or February 2019 any day over quick few inches that will be slushy goo within hours. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 Way to hedge your bets..... Oh we're giving ourselves a 850 mile wide berth on landfall. Seems the modelling is just a touch discombobulated with this pattern change. That's all I have to say 'bout thatVancouver Island to not just San Francisco but south of it is probably the largest cone of uncertainty I've ever seen. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 And it always seems to be easiest to get snow as a cold pattern is ending, guaranteeing that this is a common fate for most snowfalls here. The snow events that are followed by several days of freezing weather are a rare treat. Jan 10th 2017 was glorious in PDX, one of those fairly rare events where the snow happened as a resurgence of the cold air came howling out of the gorge and met the approaching low right over PDX. Brought about a good amount of convection and heavy snow and it stuck around for a long time. It was cold/snowy for days. Seems so D**n hard to get such events. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 It was a fun few hours. Pretty much gone two days later. I don’t care much for the one and done quick overrunners. If we have had a week with snow on the ground and below freezing temps and then an overrunning event...that works. Give me a December 2008 or February 2019 any day over quick few inches that will be slushy goo within hours. on a positive note the snow hung around longer then Albus Dumbledore on a chocolate frog card! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 We seem overdue for a wet May/June combo. May has become Januaryfied in recent years. Perma ridge month now. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 MLK Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 39 - 30 for the temp range here today. Sure wasn't expecting a high that cold. Already down to 34 tonight. Right now I think next week will get solidly chilly with maybe some lowland snow, but probably not the big one yet. I'm actually more than ok with that. Let's get a bunch of small cold snaps and save the big stuff for the Christmas through early Feb time frame. My guess is this winter will probably be pretty dry overall. A couple of firehoses will probably happen, but those aren't good for mountain snows. This could be a winter where the lowlands will be disproportionaltely snowy as compared to the mountains (anomaly wise). If this were a Nina I would think Feb and Mar might deliver some cold zonal flow, but it's not. Amazingly the ECMWF weeklies like the idea of a higher chance of anomalous troughing in the West (NW in particular) than the rest of the country through early January. FWIW the control shows us getting hammered on Christmas. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 And it always seems to be easiest to get snow as a cold pattern is ending, guaranteeing that this is a common fate for most snowfalls here. The snow events that are followed by several days of freezing weather are a rare treat. It depends on your microclimate. My location is pretty bad for warm snows as they are called. Most of the good ones here are going into cold. It actually hasn't been all that rare the past few years. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 It's pretty remarkable how calm this month has been wind wise. I've had many days with 0 as my high wind speed. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 I’ve been out in graham all day was sunny here. Must have stayed foggy in Tacoma, only 44/33 day today pretty chilly. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat? Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 2nd year Niño = crapfest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 https://komonews.com/news/local/theres-a-snowflake-on-my-app-colder-air-likely-thanksgiving-week 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 39 - 30 for the temp range here today. Sure wasn't expecting a high that cold. Already down to 34 tonight. Right now I think next week will get solidly chilly with maybe some lowland snow, but probably not the big one yet. I'm actually more than ok with that. Let's get a bunch of small cold snaps and save the big stuff for the Christmas through early Feb time frame. My guess is this winter will probably be pretty dry overall. A couple of firehoses will probably happen, but those aren't good for mountain snows. This could be a winter where the lowlands will be disproportionaltely snowy as compared to the mountains (anomaly wise). If this were a Nina I would think Feb and Mar might deliver some cold zonal flow, but it's not. Amazingly the ECMWF weeklies like the idea of a higher chance of anomalous troughing in the West (NW in particular) than the rest of the country through early January. FWIW the control shows us getting hammered on Christmas. Places like Eugene, Corvallis, and Albany had more snow than me during the winter of 2013-14. I only had snow with the December and February arctic blasts and those places did better with those events than I did. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 Take this with a grain of pepper(or salt?) 00z NAM shows the block setting up a notch further east, a few notches more amplification, and tilt is ever so slightly more favorable. These are trends to watch closely Day 3-4 (HR 72-96) with all 00z runs tonight. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 Jan 2017 Feb 2019. Even though it ended with a snow-into-mush transition, there was also a big batch of snow just as a reinforcing shot of cold air was coming in (and a respectable snowfall in between the two). 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 7 minutes! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakeinthevalley Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 I love the analysis of the models, but I nominate "notches" as the next term that is frowned upon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 I love the analysis of the models, but I nominate "notches" as the next term that is frowned upon.I understand what you're getting at, but what terminology would you prefer? A tad? A smidge? A bit? A hair? When I look for trends in the models and see subtle movements every run sometimes continuing for 8-12 runs that ends up leading up to a larger scale change and difference. I have documented the validity of this several times in the past. Notches for LIFE. 00z ECMWF in 2 hours 15 minutes 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 22, 2019 Author Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 Massive model runs tonight. 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 I love the analysis of the models, but I nominate "notches" as the next term that is frowned upon.That term was all the rage in February and March of this year! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 We seem overdue for a wet May/June combo. Spring has quite possibly torched harder than summer in the last 6 or so years. Especially May and June. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 Massive model runs tonight.Are you going to pull an all nighter? Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 Spring has quite possibly torched harder than summer in the last 6 or so years. Especially May and June.June is a summer month. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 00z GFS Day 1 Ridge is a pregnant salmons a** hair further east than 18z, 2 pregnant salmons a** hair than 12z 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 00z GFS Day 1 Ridge is a pregnant salmons a** hair further east than 18z, 2 pregnant salmons a** hair than 12z Okay, let's see what happens... Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 Day 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 Day 2 ridge is 3-4 notches further east than 18z as is the cut-off low situated under it. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 Day 2.5 Ridge merger slightly delayed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 Day 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 2-3 notches better amplification Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat? Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 2-3 notches better amplificationLooks west if you ask me Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 Day 3.5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 One's saying west, one's saying east, ahhh! Who's right, I wonder? Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 Oh snap! It looks like the goods are slipping off to the east. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat? Posted November 22, 2019 Report Share Posted November 22, 2019 One's saying west, one's saying east, ahhh! Who's right, I wonder?Go be 12 somewhere. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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