November 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[TT-SEA]

Sun is up now... revealing a skiff snow on the ridge.

 

[Blizzard777]

Odd seeing such a powerful storm drop to the SE like that.

Really is, just wrong in every way

[jakerepp]

Go Phils!

Philly native?

My dad grew up in Pennsauken, NJ, so he was a bit excited when the Phillies called me. I still have a lot of family in Lancaster County. 

[Blizzard777]

Anyone else having issues with wunderground or is it just being overrun with traffic  with these two storms 

[Blizzard777]

GOES satellite shows the comma quite well.

 

It’s got a crack

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Up to 41F so there's not gonna be any action for us here.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

7:30 AM

 

Amazing to see. Also interesting to see it take the path it is from NW to SE. 

[FroYoBro]

Up to 41F so there's not gonna be any action for us here.

 

Temperatures never change. 

[ShawniganLake]

Up to 41F so there's not gonna be any action for us here.

Could be but the fact it’s 41 now might not mean much later.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Mid-range is kind of ugly. A few cool days coming up and then back to boring. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Could be but the fact it’s 41 now might not mean much later.

 

All that matters is how much precip is available overnight. Probably not much even in Eugene though. Good bets for snow overnight are Roseburg, Grants Pass, and then Central and SE Oregon are going to do great. 

[ShawniganLake]

Big snow this weekend on the GFS. Centered near the border, maybe Whatcom and Hood Canal

[Esquimalt]

Big snow this weekend on the GFS. Centered near the border, maybe Whatcom and Hood Canal

The gfs suggests we could see quite a bit here on the south island too

[seattleweatherguy]

Big snow this weekend on the GFS. Centered near the border, maybe Whatcom and Hood Canal

Bummer no north king county

[ShawniganLake]

The gfs suggests we could see quite a bit here on the south island too

Yea. I consider us to be near the border.

[ShawniganLake]

All that matters is how much precip is available overnight. Probably not much even in Eugene though. Good bets for snow overnight are Roseburg, Grants Pass, and then Central and SE Oregon are going to do great.

I would expect there will be some dynamic cooling on the north side of this. Maybe Eugene is too far north?

[Esquimalt]

Yea. I consider us to be near the border.

I still don’t love the setup. Moisture looks somewhat limited

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Timberline Lodge picked up 14" yesterday. Not bad. If they do well with this storm they may be able to open. Only 3" at Bachelor according to their website. 6" "base" at Hoodoo.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I would expect there will be some dynamic cooling on the north side of this. Maybe Eugene is too far north?

 

Yeah the precip shield west of the Cascades looks pretty far south. I think Roseburg is ground zero. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Next weekend to me looks to have some potential. Looks like pretty flat gradients for a good chance for precip to be snow for many places.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Umpqua Basin will have a nice snowstorm today and tomorrow.  Might see a mix down here plus some blustery, filthy conditions...gonna be fun. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Massive blob destroying GOA low in the long range. 

[Shawn]

Here is a couple of live cams to watch in Ashland.  Should get interesting down there.

 

https://youtu.be/F3-2DvyUg-I

 

https://youtu.be/KZojiDvQ-I8

[Blizzard777]

Personal weather station Gold beach

no stair stepping down.....this storm is different 

[Blizzard777]

Here is a couple of live cams to watch in Ashland.  Should get interesting down there.

 

https://youtu.be/F3-2DvyUg-I

 

https://youtu.be/KZojiDvQ-I8

Awesome, got some flags for wind observation 

[HighlandExperience]

Next weekend to me looks to have some potential. Looks like pretty flat gradients for a good chance for precip to be snow for many places.

Time to call Steve Pool

[Jesse]

Umpqua Basin will have a nice snowstorm today and tomorrow. Might see a mix down here plus some blustery, filthy conditions...gonna be fun.

We are getting breakfast in Glide, OR right now. Only saw a mix overnight ten miles upriver from here. But the sticking snow line is low, only a few hundred feet above the valley floor.

 

Going to try to get a few short hikes and waterfalls in today before the storm moves in later this afternoon.

[BLI snowman]

GFS is still the coldest and wettest model for the weekend, and the only one favorable for widespread accumulations. It seems to be the coldest with this airmass in general.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Grants Pass reporting 34 with light snow. 

[Perturbed Member]

GFS is still the coldest and wettest model for the weekend, and the only one favorable for widespread accumulations. It seems to be the coldest with this airmass in general.

 

Yeah the GEM is especially lame with this weekend. Really mild. 

 

[Gradient Keeper]

9 AM

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Yeah the GEM is especially lame with this weekend. Really mild. 

 

That'll be wrong. Strong east wind pulling cold air from the Gorge/Columbia Basin into PDX keeping the cold layer thick enough for Snow. We've all seen models do this a thousand times not seeing the Gorge ending up too 'warm' and try to moderate us too quickly in this scenario.

[Gradient Keeper]

9:20 AM Light rain, east wind has developed and temp has fallen from 40.8 to 39.7. Near west Gresham. C'MON!!!!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

9 AM

 

These bombing lows really like to curl north. I would not be surprised to see a further north landfall than what is shown. 

[Jesse]

Kinda sad how much milder the late week airmass has trended. I remember when most guidance had PDX bottoming out around -8 or -9C at 850mb.

[FroYoBro]

Kinda sad how much milder the late week airmass has trended. I remember when most guidance had PDX bottoming out around -8 or -9C at 850mb.

 

 

Yeah this thing hasn't trended in a very favorable way the last 2 days. 

 

Oh well, a nice break from the boring weather still. 

[Jesse]

Yeah this thing hasn't trended in a very favorable way the last 2 days.

 

Oh well, a nice break from the boring weather still.

Mos def.

[TT-SEA]

Massive blob destroying GOA low in the long range. 

 

 

A couple ironic points:

 

1) The blob was completely destroyed and "pummeled into oblivion" back in September according to the "experts" on this forum.   It is long gone now.  

 

2) The EPS has been showing that GOA low for several runs in the long range and you told us this morning to "throw out" the EPS. 

 

 

Interesting. 

[Perturbed Member]

That'll be wrong. Strong east wind pulling cold air from the Gorge/Columbia Basin into PDX keeping the cold layer thick enough for Snow. We've all seen models do this a thousand times not seeing the Gorge ending up too 'warm' and try to moderate us too quickly in this scenario.

 

Yeah that was my gut feeling too. Cold air in place with a low approaching out of the SW should almost always at least start with snow. Generally the textbook pattern for a good snowstorm here but the GEM wants to warm us up real fast even with the east wind going. 

 

Even last night's euro was pretty marginal too. Hopefully this weekend can deliver something.

[Deweydog]

Low solar.