SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 5, 2019 Report Share Posted December 5, 2019 Geez...I thought the 12z might be decent given some of the comments on here. Some occasional rain and 7,000' snow levels. Cool Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 5, 2019 Report Share Posted December 5, 2019 CFS tries to retrograde the block after Christmas, but it kind of floats off into the arctic and westerlies break through. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted December 5, 2019 Report Share Posted December 5, 2019 Hey look quick - something interesting is showing up for once! It showed up on my iPad too! That’s got to mean something!!! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted December 5, 2019 Report Share Posted December 5, 2019 Excellent set-up for a WA windstorm, but probably nothing much for Oregon this track. I believe the 1993 Inauguration Day Storm took this kind of path. Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted December 5, 2019 Report Share Posted December 5, 2019 Would be nice to see that storm verify...but there’s a lot of time for that to change. Current pattern we are in looked wet a week or so ago. Didn’t really end up being wet at all. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted December 5, 2019 Report Share Posted December 5, 2019 Excellent set-up for a WA windstorm, but probably nothing much for Oregon this track. I believe the 1993 Inauguration Day Storm took this kind of path. PDX ought to be due for a windstorm...we had enough windstorm excitement last winter to not need any more for the next 5 years. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted December 5, 2019 Report Share Posted December 5, 2019 45* and stagnant outside My lights are up and ready for the rain test. I’m sure I’ll trip a few gfci outlets when enough moisture falls although most are protected. also picked up some cool wifi smart plugs ( Costco) so now I can control my light from my phone. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted December 5, 2019 Report Share Posted December 5, 2019 Exciting out.....just need some dinosaurs roaming about(2nd shot down in PDX) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 5, 2019 Report Share Posted December 5, 2019 PDX ought to be due for a windstorm...we had enough windstorm excitement last winter to not need any more for the next 5 years.Washington county hasn’t had a windstorm or snowstorm in nearly a century. Could be another century before they see one. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 5, 2019 Report Share Posted December 5, 2019 Continued GEFS improvement. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 5, 2019 Report Share Posted December 5, 2019 At least PDX made it into the 30s this morning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 5, 2019 Report Share Posted December 5, 2019 Have also noticed a trend toward a little wetter for the next “system” tomorrow into Saturday, at least on the GFS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 5, 2019 Report Share Posted December 5, 2019 Have also noticed a trend toward a little wetter for the next “system” tomorrow into Saturday, at least on the GFS. Yeah, should be our wettest system in quite awhile at least. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted December 5, 2019 Report Share Posted December 5, 2019 That windstorm on the 14th would be epic. Models have been showing something interesting happening in general that weekend, so I hope this is the start of a good storm brewing. Need some excitement up in here! Would be interesting if it did end up verifying considering there was also a significant windstorm on the same day last year. Fingers crossed it actually ends up being interesting, somethings gotta happen to get out of this boring rut of weather. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted December 5, 2019 Author Report Share Posted December 5, 2019 Safe to say we’re probably going to be waiting another year for a major windstorm. It's been years already since a regionally good windstorm. Got close in Fall 2016 a couple times, but pretty sure Feb 2015 was my last decent one. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 21 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 5, 2019 Report Share Posted December 5, 2019 It's been years already since a regionally good windstorm. Got close in Fall 2016 a couple times, but pretty sure Feb 2015 was my last decent one.What constitutes a regionally good windstorm. Pretty rare for everyone from southern BC to the California border to be effected by the same storm. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 5, 2019 Report Share Posted December 5, 2019 Interesting the Euro has the same storm as the GFS. Rare to see that consistency at day 9 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted December 5, 2019 Report Share Posted December 5, 2019 Haven’t had a good windstorm here since the south valley surprise in 2002. Doesn’t look like much of anything interesting in the cards down this way... Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted December 5, 2019 Report Share Posted December 5, 2019 Interesting the Euro has the same storm as the GFS. Rare to see that consistency at day 9models are really working to draw us in.... ....I might bite Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted December 5, 2019 Report Share Posted December 5, 2019 Interesting the Euro has the same storm as the GFS. Rare to see that consistency at day 9The Canadian has a decent storm tpo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted December 5, 2019 Author Report Share Posted December 5, 2019 What constitutes a regionally good windstorm. Pretty rare for everyone from southern BC to the California border to be effected by the same storm. Well, a type of wind event that isn't very localized, for example in Dec 2014 wasn't just a PDX event, all the way down here I was getting around 60 as well, and in the Oct 2014 one. It doesn't necessarily have to be the entire west coast, that would be an overblown way to define a regional wind event. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 21 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 5, 2019 Report Share Posted December 5, 2019 Haven’t had a good windstorm here since the south valley surprise in 2002. Doesn’t look like much of anything interesting in the cards down this way... Yeah, pretty obvious the models already have a really good handle on the wind in your area next weekend. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest CulverJosh Posted December 5, 2019 Report Share Posted December 5, 2019 Oh cmon Fred. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted December 5, 2019 Report Share Posted December 5, 2019 Yeah, pretty obvious the models already have a really good handle on the wind in your area next weekend. It's going to end up splitting anyway. 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kokaneekidz Posted December 5, 2019 Report Share Posted December 5, 2019 Hey look quick - something interesting is showing up for once! That places the bullseye of the warm nose over Puyallup. And Stevens Pass northward appears headed for heavy fluffy pearlescent goods as well. One can desire these may dreams come true *************** Lots of SNOW! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted December 5, 2019 Report Share Posted December 5, 2019 Would be interesting if it did end up verifying considering there was also a significant windstorm on the same day last year. Fingers crossed it actually ends up being interesting, somethings gotta happen to get out of this boring rut of weather.Is that the one where Fred did the Denny’s road trip? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 5, 2019 Report Share Posted December 5, 2019 Is that the one where Fred did the Denny’s road trip?He was Denny’s hopping all night to chase the highest winds, if I recall. That’s the kind of weather geekery dedication I like to see here. But I believe this was the early January storm. Meanwhile we were waiting out the storm at a gas station with its power out in central Lewis County. The wind and branches coming down on I-5 got too crazy so we pulled over. A memorable birthday storm. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 5, 2019 Report Share Posted December 5, 2019 Actually been meaning to ask you about that. What kind of a "force" could change the background state that we are in, and is there a way to forecast that?Well, that’s a long, complicated affair. Many of these boundary state progressions are quasi-stable/unstable and turn on thresholds governed by seasonality and exterternal/whole state perturbations at just the proper time/frequency. Picture yourself shaking a flag pole..if you shake it at its resonance point you can amplify its sway and possibly bring it down, but shake it at the wrong frequency (too fast/slow) and it will resist. In this case there are a multitude of vacillations in the tropical forcing, antecedent AAM state/exchanges, and preexisting boundary conditions (QBO/solar et al) that are running the show. Should these multitude of factors align favorably, a favorable conduit for wave driving may lead to a disruption and/or breakdown of the stratospheric polar vortex, with cascading feedbacks on the instability/circulation/convection in the deep tropics and middle latitude wavetrain, which could deliver the “desired” weather conditions to the PNW region. In some years, of course, this “special” conduit for cold/snow/storminess in the PNW is not necessary, and the background state already favors it. This is particularly true in years with +QBO/La Niña combinations, irrespective of solar. These years are the best performing out there..see 2008/09, 2010/11, 2016/17, 2013/14, etc. This is not one of those years, though. So, we’ll need to find a way around/through the background state. To do that, favorable wave driving is a must, in order to avoid locking into a strong +PNA pattern in late winter/spring. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 5, 2019 Report Share Posted December 5, 2019 Great, Phil is calling for a strong +PNA pattern in the late winter and spring. What a punch to the gut that would be. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 5, 2019 Report Share Posted December 5, 2019 Interesting the Euro has the same storm as the GFS. Rare to see that consistency at day 9Here we go again. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 5, 2019 Report Share Posted December 5, 2019 Great, Phil is calling for a strong +PNA pattern in the late winter and spring. What a punch to the gut that would be.That is TBD. But +PNA can be very wet in the Feb-Apr timeframe. Could make up some serious rainfall deficits well into the spring this year. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlTahoe Posted December 5, 2019 Report Share Posted December 5, 2019 Well, a type of wind event that isn't very localized, for example in Dec 2014 wasn't just a PDX event, all the way down here I was getting around 60 as well, and in the Oct 2014 one. It doesn't necessarily have to be the entire west coast, that would be an overblown way to define a regional wind event. Dec 2014 was the only wind storm to scare me here in Tahoe. We had gust of over 100mph at lake level with thousands of pine trees snapped off mid way up. One 16 year old kid was crushed to death by a tree in an open meadow! Up at Heavenly ski resort they had winds of over 150mph with tons of tree damage. Seeing huge mature pine trees snapped in half mid way up their trunks was eye opening. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted December 5, 2019 Report Share Posted December 5, 2019 He was Denny’s hopping all night to chase the highest winds, if I recall. That’s the kind of weather geekery dedication I like to see here. But I believe this was the early January storm. Meanwhile we were waiting out the storm at a gas station with its power out in central Lewis County. The wind and branches coming down on I-5 got too crazy so we pulled over. A memorable birthday storm.Thinking possibly this next year I do a little storm chasing. We shall see. It’s always sweeter though when your in your own home while a storm is raging outside. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 5, 2019 Report Share Posted December 5, 2019 Here we go again.Sorry. NM. Storm, rain, wind all cancelled. Split flow is our path to winter weather Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted December 5, 2019 Report Share Posted December 5, 2019 PDX got to 52 at the 11:35 reading. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 5, 2019 Report Share Posted December 5, 2019 What constitutes a regionally good windstorm. Pretty rare for everyone from southern BC to the California border to be effected by the same storm.This. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted December 5, 2019 Author Report Share Posted December 5, 2019 For the last nearly 48 hours straight, continuous frog. Keep it going! Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 21 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 5, 2019 Report Share Posted December 5, 2019 Great, Phil is calling for a strong +PNA pattern in the late winter and spring. What a punch to the gut that would be.That gut punch blow should be softened by people’s front loading over the holiday season. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 5, 2019 Report Share Posted December 5, 2019 This.How far south did that wonky August wind storm extend a few years back. That seemed pretty wide spread 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El_Nina Posted December 5, 2019 Report Share Posted December 5, 2019 51, mild and sunny. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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