Gradient Keeper Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 I think it's more a testament to how hard up people around here are for any worthwhile weather when there's actually been this much hubbub over some cool onshore flow in the 8+ day range. Nothing great has ever been in view.Yep, exactly. Chilly onshore flow is nothing anyone should be excited about. Until we see models/ensembles come to an agreement for a kona low, block, and building heights at least 540dm(560+ preferred) over southern Alaska/Anchorage, everyone should consider going into a Winter coma and stay in bed. 00z NAM in 2 hours 33 minutes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 Yep, exactly. Chilly onshore flow is nothing anyone should be excited about. Until we see models/ensembles come to an agreement for a kona low, block, and building heights at least 540dm(560+ preferred) over southern Alaska/Anchorage, everyone should consider going into a Winter coma and stay in bed. 00z NAM in 2 hours 33 minutesGiven how this ridgy/splitty cold season has gone so far, chilly onshore flow is definitely worth getting excited about. I like it when the mountains get snow, and it is sorely needed. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 What the hell am I going to do with all of this now that winter is officially cancelled? 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randyc321 Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 I usually can tell 2 weeks out if we are going to get a cold snap because my hemorrhoids start acting up. Well it's been bad for the last two days. I'm locking it in. This might be an ANALog. When did they act up last? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 Just the usual. Get the interesting weather to the 7-8 day mark and the rug gets pulled. Like 90% of the time. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 Given how this ridgy/splitty cold season has gone so far, chilly onshore flow is definitely worth getting excited about. I like it when the mountains get snow, and it is sorely needed.Well sure in the sense that we're receiving moisture and mountain snows, I get that, but in terms of anything further than that.... I don't see what there is to be excited about. The 12z EPS after Day 12 shows potential. The 12z CMCE 500mb pattern was pretty D**n good. The EPS PNA, EPO forecast looks very encouraging. 00z EPS in 8 hours 47 minutes (Tidbits) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbbyJr Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 Why do forecasts change? Meteorologist Tyler Hamilton has the answer. This is very interesting and explains why we often see dramatic model shifts run to run in the long range. https://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/articles/why-your-long-range-forecast-changes-how-long-range-models-work-ask-the-meteorologist/119654 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 FWIW the models have trended much cooler in the January 1-3rd range. Good for some decent mountain snow. This is the coldest ensemble run yet for the 4th. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 I can't wait for the 18z ensembles to finish us off. Those tissues will come in handy. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 The op is a complete warm outlier Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 Operational is the warmest member in the mid range (which of course means it will be correct). 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 For some perspective, there's been very little cold air recently anywhere on a global scale. Europe and Asia have been massively torching. We really need a strong -ENSO response at this point to shake up the system. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 Tons and tons of mountain snows, so where as I'm not excited, it's nice to see that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 Ensembles actually look okay. If not a touch better Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weiner Warrior Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 Last February This might be an ANALog. When did they act up last? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 Ensembles are still fine in the believable range. No cliff jumping yet. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 The op is a huge warm outlier after next weekend Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 The op is a complete warm outlierGreat to hear! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 Well sure in the sense that we're receiving moisture and mountain snows, I get that, but in terms of anything further than that.... I don't see what there is to be excited about. The 12z EPS after Day 12 shows potential. The 12z CMCE 500mb pattern was pretty d**n good. The EPS PNA, EPO forecast looks very encouraging. 00z EPS in 8 hours 47 minutes (Tidbits)Yes, from a purely lowland perspective, probably not exactly thrilling unless you enjoy cold rain like I do. I agree that the long range still holds some potential. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 For some perspective, there's been very little cold air recently anywhere on a global scale. Europe and Asia have been massively torching. We really need a strong -ENSO response at this point to shake up the system. Hopefully we can slip into a Nina for next winter. Some of the recent ENSO forecasts have moved in that direction, though as Phil mentioned the other day they can be wildly inaccurate. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 Just need amplification bit more tilt and we'll be building snowmen forever and ever. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 Up to 48F. Let's see if we hit 50F. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 welp, i would be happy with a three week period of heavy mountain snow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 Just need amplification bit more tilt and we'll be building snowmen forever and ever.Which the models tonight could very well show. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 Hey, hey! Yakima ensembles shows a signal for backdoor colder air around January 11th-13th. EPS also showed that. 500mb pattern a bit better. Hmmm! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 Hopefully we can slip into a Nino for next winter. Some of the recent ENSO forecasts have moved in that direction, though as Phil mentioned the other day they can be wildly inaccurate. A full fledged Nino next winter followed by a healthy Nina in 2021-22 would probably be our best realistic outcome if we're talking strictly ENSO. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakeinthevalley Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 It's like being an Oklahoma fan. Last night, optimism was high. Today, reality hits. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Farmboy Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 I can't wait for the 18z ensembles to finish us off. Those tissues will come in handy.Why wait? Here's a fork to go with the tissues. 3 Quote "Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 18z GFS EnsemblesThe persistent signal for the pattern change January 3rd continues to show for many days now. That is unchanged. Wet, TONS of Mountain snows. WOW! Potential for colder temps long range. Portlandhttp://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png Seattlehttp://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png Vancouver BChttp://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Vancouver_Kanada_ens.png Yakimahttp://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Yakima_USA_ens.png 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 I really like the trend in the January 1-3rd time period. Could see some good rain and snow amounts. 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 Baby steps. Toddler trots. Preschooler Prances Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 Listen up because I am only going to say this once. FWIW, the ensembles look a lot like they did in late January last year. A solid negative departure, but nothing that really jumped out at you. We all know how that turned out...Not to say we will see a repeat, but that was not a late December 2016 situation where we had runs showing -12C 850mb temps, etc... 4 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 Maybe we can squeeze in a sub-40F day on Jan 4? Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 The new year will start off being a solid mud producer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted December 28, 2019 Report Share Posted December 28, 2019 Listen up because I am only going to say this once. FWIW, the ensembles look a lot like they did in late January last year. A solid negative departure, but nothing that really jumped out at you. We all know how that turned out...Not to say we will see a repeat, but that was not a late December 2016 situation where we had runs showing -12C 850mb temps, etc...Don't threaten us! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 44/32 today. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 18z ensembles were really quite good if you are looking for a wetter, more active pattern with mountain snows in the short to mid range, followed by long range potential. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 What we know: Solid ensemble agreement for pattern change on January 3rd. That's in just 5 1/2 days. Timing has moved forward instead of pushing everything back as we so often see. Massive supply of cold air to our north. PNA, EPO to be heavily in our favor. Looking at Day 5 to 6 we are quite close to seeing a ridge merger take place and if that happens along with a kona low we'll go into an arctic pattern quickly. No sign of split flow. Doing jumping jacks make me fart. Frosty the Snowman smokes meth in his pipe that's what makes him magically come alive and dance around. The story claims its his hat, but we know better than that. Santa might not be real. Epstein didn't kill himself What we don't know: Heading through the first two weeks of January do we just see cold onshore flow that progressively turns colder enough for snow to 500' and to the valley floor at times with slushy accumulations. Do snow levels remain 1000-2000'+. Do we see a historic January with snow and reloads. Will Tim and Andrew be snowed in. Who killed Epstein. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 18z ensembles were really quite good if you are looking for a wetter, more active pattern with mountain snows in the short to mid range, followed by long range potential.The new snow depth ensembles look pretty amazing for Vic Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 Call me crazy...But the ensembles continue to improve as the operational gets worse...interesting. Oh and I am working on something that will either make for a full winter go...or winter cancel...Stay tuned! 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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