Tom Posted December 12, 2019 Author Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 18z GFS... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 12, 2019 Author Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 The run-to-run consistency on track from the GFS is crazy... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 GRR went from all in to out in 12 hours. What a clown office 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 GFS keeps giving us hope. Ha ha. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 18z GFS cut my snow totals in half and placed me close to the southern edge. Not going to panic over one run, BUTTTT.....it feels like I've seen this movie before. 1 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIKEKC Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 Where’s that 18z Euro at???...Clinton Out yet? Latest GFS is still targeting KC for late this weekend. Hopefully the trend will continue. We’re ready for one 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 18z GFS...20 miles further north and I'm in big trouble! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 Where’s that 18z Euro at???...Clinton Out yet? Latest GFS is still targeting KC for late this weekend. Hopefully the trend will continue. We’re ready for one18z Euro rolls out between 6 and 7. We are do! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 My .02 cents on the GFS (18z) coming back N, no upper air soundings. I don't trust the 06 and 18z - on any model runs, esp the GFS. Many say it makes no difference and I beg to differ if you watch close and compare to what actually transpires 3 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 18z GFS mean nudges north. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 12, 2019 Report Share Posted December 12, 2019 My .02 cents on the GFS (18z) coming back N, no upper air soundings. I don't trust the 06 and 18z - on any model runs, esp the GFS. Many say it makes no difference and I beg to differ if you watch close and compare to what actually transpiresGrizz I agree with you and it's real evident with the ICON runs. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 13, 2019 Report Share Posted December 13, 2019 My .02 cents on the GFS (18z) coming back N, no upper air soundings. I don't trust the 06 and 18z - on any model runs, esp the GFS. Many say it makes no difference and I beg to differ if you watch close and compare to what actually transpiresI’d tend to agree. It’s always interesting to click through the previous model runs to see how they compare. More times than not there’s a definite trend between the 6z/18 runs and 0z/12z runs in terms of low placement, etc. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 13, 2019 Report Share Posted December 13, 2019 18z EC Kansas City scores a direct hit Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 13, 2019 Report Share Posted December 13, 2019 18z EPS mean 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 13, 2019 Report Share Posted December 13, 2019 SREF beginning to come into range, only goes 87hrs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 13, 2019 Author Report Share Posted December 13, 2019 18z EPS mean Slowly starting to take a turn towards the Lower GL's...caving towards the GEFS??? LOL 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 13, 2019 Report Share Posted December 13, 2019 Slowly starting to take a turn towards the Lower GL's...caving towards the GEFS??? LOLJust insane, but it's about time for the GFS to give a little, it wants to send my snow to Iowa lol. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIKEKC Posted December 13, 2019 Report Share Posted December 13, 2019 Thanks for the maps, Clinton. Next up, NAM model. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 13, 2019 Report Share Posted December 13, 2019 Idk what exactly scenario #1 was, but this is indeed what we want to see happen.. That scenario could produce the BD amounts that one Euro run had (and some recent GFS runs)#1 takes it way too far south. Gives very little snow. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 13, 2019 Report Share Posted December 13, 2019 NWS KC is buying in.aturday into early Sunday will remain quiet, yet cold, withincreasing cloud cover ahead of an approaching, deepening troughover the Intermountain West. Increased convergence ahead of thissystem will provide a broad area of forcing for ascent across Kansasinto the Ozarks. Latest mid-range guidance from the ECMWF and GFSare in general agreement, synoptically, along with the Canadian andGEFS Mean. Temperature profiles suggest initial precipitation willbe light snow, with better chances through the afternoon andevening. Overnight, snow chances increase and the the possibility ofaccumulating snow is more than likely. The uncertainty in where thegreatest snowfall will occur into Monday morning remains. The latestGFS has adjusted at skosh, but remains farther north with the upperlow track and surface low track than the ECMWF or Canadian, whichhave been maintaining a more Ozark track of the potential TROWLdevelopment and highest liquid equivalent. As of now, a wideswath of at least 1 to 3 inches is possible across much ofeastern Kansas into western and central Missouri. Locally higheramounts could approach 5 inches across east central Kansas intomid-Missouri. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 13, 2019 Report Share Posted December 13, 2019 Welp.. DTX also forecasting a major GFS cave-in pending.. I see they key in on the confluence from the Gulf Low that's not far enough ahead of this wave. Sad times when we have to be mega-teased like this from supposed advanced super-computers ...They are so conservative! 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 13, 2019 Author Report Share Posted December 13, 2019 00z NAM with a decent cutter...trends looking better so far up this way and the lower lakes... 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 13, 2019 Report Share Posted December 13, 2019 Gotta like what the NAM has it will be good for many if it continues this trend. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mi_Matthew Posted December 13, 2019 Report Share Posted December 13, 2019 Anybody remember when DTX used to locally run an extended version of the ETA model? I forget how many hours it went out, but I'd sure like to see what happens next on the NAM! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted December 13, 2019 Report Share Posted December 13, 2019 Good luck to all with this up and coming snow event! Cheers to a mix of the EURO being the correct track and GFS with the robust amounts! Spread the wealth and jump start a busy winter hopefully to many of us on board! 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 13, 2019 Report Share Posted December 13, 2019 Gotta like what the NAM has it will be good for many if it continues this trend.Look at that hvy snow hitting all of SEMI...beautiful! 4 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 13, 2019 Report Share Posted December 13, 2019 00z ICON still struggling to find a storm. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted December 13, 2019 Report Share Posted December 13, 2019 Anybody remember when DTX used to locally run an extended version of the ETA model? I forget how many hours it went out, but I'd sure like to see what happens next on the NAM!Imagine this was the DGEX which has since been discontinued, probably for its own good since it was generally dismal at any time interval 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 13, 2019 Author Report Share Posted December 13, 2019 RPM model looks very similar to the GFS and with similar amounts. I usually like to see the RPM model at this range. It generally does a good job this far out. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mi_Matthew Posted December 13, 2019 Report Share Posted December 13, 2019 Imagine this was the DGEX which has since been discontinued, probably for its own good since it was generally dismal at any time intervalSounds right. Yeah, it wasn't very good but I enjoyed getting that little bonus peek. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 13, 2019 Report Share Posted December 13, 2019 The 500 mb energy does not look impressive on the 00z GFS... kinda broad and flat like some other models... certainly nothing like last night's focused and sharp 00z run. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 13, 2019 Report Share Posted December 13, 2019 And.... the GFS caves... weaker and south, nothing for Iowa. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 13, 2019 Report Share Posted December 13, 2019 GRR on board?? Unusual for this office this far out... "Significant snow event possible (looking more likely) Mondayafternoon into Tuesday. Colder with lake effect into Wednesday The GFS has been forecasting this for nearly a week now and theECMWF has since the 10th /00z run been bringing the storm closerto us on the operational runs. The 12/00z run brings snow to GRRfrom the ECMWF. Since this is polar closed upper low droppingsouth into and southern stream system, this could be power housestorm. We will have to watch this closely." GRR went from all in to out in 12 hours. What a clown office Somehow I missed your first post and their AFD. By the time I saw the AFD they had "dropped" the part about it looking "More likely", the rest was there tho which I also posted. But, I did catch the pm update and as you say, it was a complete 180 deg flip! I believe they allow whomever writes those to put whatever that individual wants in there. Does not look like they sit around a table and come to a group consensus, so yeah, you see these horrible swings in their outlooks! Knowing how they work in GR, I was actually more surprised & disappointed to see DTX backing away from the system so quickly. Now, back to GRR and their failure wrt headlines for every event so far in this young winter. At least down my way (i.e. 94 corridor). The WWA for 10/31 busted horrible. Vet's Day needed to be a Warning for 6-8+, not a WWA. Dec 1st was a complete and total disaster with yby and many areas having zero headline with 3-5" while several WWA counties got warning level event (some bigly). Latest was Tuesday's LES event where areas from here to the lakeshore had 2-5" with again zero headlines! PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI1024 PM EST TUE DEC 10 2019 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON.....DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE......REMARKS.. 1023 PM SNOW PAW PAW 42.22N 85.89W12/10/2019 M5.0 INCH VAN BUREN MI TRAINED SPOTTER STORM TOTAL. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 13, 2019 Report Share Posted December 13, 2019 12z GFS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 13, 2019 Report Share Posted December 13, 2019 RPM model looks very similar to the GFS and with similar amounts. I usually like to see the RPM model at this range. It generally does a good job this far out. Never been a huge fan of the RPM tbh. Seems stingy further east. Maybe they just don't run it out far enough for mby?? Hey, the NAM looks sweet eh? I trust it at that range even more than some globals (GEM, ICON). I think you called this buddy, super fun winter of tracking systems is upon us! 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 13, 2019 Report Share Posted December 13, 2019 LOL GFS. Time to throw that model away. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted December 13, 2019 Report Share Posted December 13, 2019 Hmmm this is a very odd storm. Fingers crossed for Nam. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bellona Posted December 13, 2019 Report Share Posted December 13, 2019 I was never excited about this storm. Hoping something big comes around Christmas time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 13, 2019 Report Share Posted December 13, 2019 12z GFS Well, that's a dud up this way. We're seeing this same thing we've seen in past years where it seems the energy goes in and out of sampling and we get some runs where it looks lame, then some where it gets better. Just have to see what the next 2 days hold. Get this Gulf Low out of the way first of all.. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 13, 2019 Report Share Posted December 13, 2019 Well, that's a dud up this way. We're seeing this same thing we've seen in past years where it seems the energy goes in and out of sampling and we get some runs where it looks lame, then some where it gets better. Just have to see what the next 2 days hold. Get this Gulf Low out of the way first of all..The NAM tonight had a great run so there is still hope for ya. It should cut more than what the GFS showed tonight. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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