kokaneekidz Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 FCOJ contracts are going down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 The control run isn’t “bad” either. Sure it’s more like the operational ECMWF initially, but, similarly, it would probably get there eventually, as it develops an even deeper SW-Canada cold pool than the GFS (and a -NAO) as the destructive interference in the tropics finally ends and wave amplification commences. 2 Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 January 1880 = holy sh*t January 70 years later... January 1950 = holy sh*t January 70 years later... 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 16 years ago right now things had just switched to ICE. My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 The control run isn’t “bad” either. Sure it’s more like the operational ECMWF initially, but, similarly, it would probably get there eventually, as it develops an even deeper SW-Canada cold pool than the GFS (and a -NAO) as the destructive interference in the tropics finally ends and wave amplification commences. Control run at day 10... this will be considered very "bad" by this group compared to what we have seen on other models. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbbyJr Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 One thing that may be concerning is that by January 18th, the 500 mb pattern falls apart on the EPS. Though probably nothing to be super worried about as its 13 days away. The good news is that the EPS seems to be improving in the short-mid range, which is much better than it being epic in the long range and then falling apart in the short to mid. That said, the GEFS is a different story. The 500 mb pattern looks good through the end of the run. It also does appear that the GFS may be leading the way, as the other models are caving to it in the short-mid range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 Side note... the EPS is stuck at 318 hours. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SorboTheGeek Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 I could make them meet in the middle. Just gotta grab my easel and start painting. Use a Sharpie! DM me if you need a guy. I know of someone who's good with one on weather maps. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Farmboy Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 EPS warming up faster after day 10 than previous runs.This post seems to have slipped past everyone. I'd post it one more time... 1 "Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 It would appear that the operational Euro is the odd man out at this juncture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 This post seems to have slipped past everyone. I'd post it one more time... Just mentioning its still stuck. Normally finished by 11:40 a.m. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 How’s this for a flash freeze forecast? From my Davis software pkg 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 It would appear that the operational Euro is the odd man out at this juncture.Look at this graph, for Seattle (similar to any other place in the PNW). Huge difference between the mean and the operational: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 Jim? Jim? Are my snow monsters in jeopardy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 Jim? Jim? Are my snow monsters in jeopardy?Best news is you still have the EPS on board for early next week. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 How’s this for a flash freeze forecast? From my Davis software pkgNow that's an Arctic Front! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 Look at this graph, for Seattle (similar to any other place in the PNW). Huge difference between the mean and the operational: epsvsecmwf.pngShould have mentioned that the main run is at 45 degrees. 90% of the ensemble members are at or below 39. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 It would appear that the operational Euro is the odd man out at this juncture. It's the least favorable scenario, but it's not like the other models/ensembles are all in perfect agreement either. GFS has been by far the most aggressive with the cold air, and everything else is somewhere in between that and the Euro. A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 More from the 12z JMA. It goes farther out on the French website than on tidbits. At day 9, 850mb temperatures are -15C PDX North. YVR gets close to -20C. http://img.meteocentre.com/models/jma_amer_12/TT_GZ_UU_VV_216_0850.gif 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 How’s the NOGAPS looking? Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 I don't know whether or not EPS snowfall maps are as reliable as temperature maps or 500mb maps, but the snowfall maps through hour 348 are a little bit more snowy for Western WA/OR then last nights 0Z EPS through hour 360. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 Here's high/lo temps shown by the 12z EPS. Certainly a little warmer than the GFS ensembles but not too bad considering it's a mean... I usually think the EPS will trend warmer if the operational and control run are significantly warmer... and the opposite if they are colder. This time could be different though since the EPS trended colder than its previous run in the 8-10 day period. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 That being said... even the "cold" EPS does not show a below freezing day at SEA. But its close for a couple days. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kokaneekidz Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 Well the Maunder Minimum has been given a re-birth by Buddham saranang gacchami. Thanks and I am going to give alms to the temple tomorrow at 11AM and Wed at 7PM. Double the duty double the ROI 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 How’s this for a flash freeze forecast? From my Davis software pkgYour Davis has my Davis beat ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 Davis must be linked to the GFS! Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 Doom has descended upon the forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 She’s just sitting there waiting and waiting and waiting... 6 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 Davis must be linked to the GFS!I would be curious to see what weather model they follow but GFS looks like it’s possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 My phone appears to be following the EPS... does not show any below freezing days here. Definitely way warmer than the GFS but not as warm as the ECMWF. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 Euro weeklies coming out right now and they look good through about day 15. Control run on the weeklies looks a lot like the GFS. CFS is also on board. 3 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North_County Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 36° with wind out of the NE. Raindrops are a little on the chunky side. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ttt Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 Euro weeklies coming out right now and they look good through about day 15. Control run on the weeklies looks a lot like the GFS. ECMWF weeklies at day 15 look just like what the EPS has been showing... not arctic but still chilly. And then is stays cool for the central and western US for the rest of the run. Should be a good few weeks for the mountains. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 How’s the NOGAPS looking?Took big steps toward the MRF today which shows a 588dm ridge centered just west of Cape Flattery next Monday. 1 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Blizzard777 Posted January 6, 2020 Popular Post Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 She’s just sitting there waiting and waiting and waiting...Fixed itedit! 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 NAVGEM has spoken, the 516 line never gets further in than NE Washington. It's over. NAVGEM and OP ECMWF have formed an alliance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 She’s just sitting there waiting and waiting and waiting... Nobody puts baby in a corner! 3 A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 Fixed itBrilliant! You are quite the artist! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 6, 2020 Report Share Posted January 6, 2020 1 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts