Part I - January 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[GHweatherChris]

Just under 8 inches in the valley here and almost 10 inches at the Cedar Lake station for the first 9 days of January. Raining now. Juuuuust a bit wet since the middle of December.

Yup, over 26 inches of rain since 12/1 here.

[MossMan]

Maybe I am hearing things but I think we just got thunder snow. I was out checking gas on the 4 wheeler and I swear I heard a rumble. Pretty cool.

DomeBuster!

[Guest LaPineLurker]

it happens josh

 

Is that a play on tease?  Not sure I get it.

[GHweatherChris]

I’m at 3.89” on the month so far.

With 50 inches of snow on the way.

[MossMan]

Just checked the NWS updated forecast for the Arlington area and it shows less than 1" of snow possible Sunday and Sunday night with no accumulations after that through Friday. History is being made folks. I guess I shouldn't have bragged a couple days ago that my area does well for snowfall.

Guess it’s time to move down to Oregon!

[Front Ranger]

Wow... that is an awesome camera.    So clear... and pointed right at a street light to illuminate falling snow.

 

And wow that is lots of snow.   Same elevation as my location and completely different.

 

It's too bad there isn't reliable snow records recently for that area. Grotto, a little ways down the valley, got almost 200" in 1955-56.

[El_Nina]

Guess it’s time to move down to Oregon!

Our fireworks are pretty lame. Flavored vape juice tho.

[Guest LaPineLurker]

I have a couple coworkers that are up at Bachelor right now and they said they can't see a foot in front of their face.   

[runninthruda206]

I just looked back at the blog from cliff mass last feb and the forecast was looking almost much worse than what the models are showing this time around. And what did we get in Seattle? Like 21”? I think we’ll do good this week and there will definitely be some surprises, I hope

[Deweydog]

Maybe I am hearing things but I think we just got thunder snow. I was out checking gas on the 4 wheeler and I swear I heard a rumble. Pretty cool.

Sex.

[The Swamp]

Frankie has spoken!

 

 

what did I just watch?

 

that was hysterical

[Timmy]

Is that a play on tease? Not sure I get it.

for the off chance we are wrong. Everyone thinks you are a member that got banned from here this winter.

[The Swamp]

43 and heavy rain in the swamp

[El_Nina]

for the off chance we are wrong. Everyone thinks you are a member that got banned from here this winter.

Hes literally not even trying to hide it

[Guest LaPineLurker]

for the off chance we are wrong. Everyone thinks you are a member that got banned from here this winter.

 

Oh, lol.  Not sure I was here yet.  I am sensing some animosity towards this person.  Not even sure what that sex post was a minute ago.

[MikeInEverett]

Sex

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Wow... that is an awesome camera.    So clear... and pointed right at a street light to illuminate falling snow.

 

And wow that is lots of snow.   Same elevation as my location and completely different.

 

Shows what being a little bit further east can accomplish.

[Guest LaPineLurker]

I'm just here to talk weather.  Not sure what the sex thing means.  Kind of strange.

[MossMan]

Oh, lol. Not sure I was here yet. I am sensing some animosity towards this person. Not even sure what that sex post was a minute ago.

Since you are back...And before you are banned again...How was the latest NWS conference call? Are we all still getting buried?

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Just checked the NWS updated forecast for the Arlington area and it shows less than 1" of snow possible Sunday and Sunday night with no accumulations after that through Friday.  History is being made folks.  I guess I shouldn't have bragged a couple days ago that my area does well for snowfall.

 

The current forecast for Bellingham is frankly crazy. They talk about it oscillating between rain and snow between about Saturday night and Sunday night. That just doesn’t make sense to me. Once the arctic front arrives, it’s gonna be all snow.

[jakeinthevalley]

We bought one when we got here. And I do already have a couple back home. Long gravel driveway in Texas. Easier for checking the mail.

Really smart choice, no sales tax and all.

 

Did you know there is a Brownsville in Oregon?

[TT-SEA]

Shows what being a little bit further east can accomplish.

 

 

Not sure of all the specific reasons for differences.   Obviously they are in a very protected valley there and that is a huge part of it.    I just looked on a map and did not realize that Skykomish was straight north of Snoqualmie Pass.   I always think of it as being straight north of here.   I remember Phil said they had house in Skykomish as well... in a sub-division in a ritzy suburb of Skykomish at around 4,500 feet in elevation before they moved to bustling city of Stampede Pass.

[Guest LaPineLurker]

Really smart choice, no sales tax and all.

 

Did you know there is a Brownsville in Oregon?

 

Yes I did.  A coworker of mine is actually going over there tomorrow as his mom lives there.  Probably not a great idea huh?

[SnarkyGoblin]

Since you are back...And before you are banned again...How was the latest NWS conference call? Are we all still getting buried?

Fred should be able to pretty easily figure out if this is the person we shall not name.

 

Would be kinda shitty if he was a real guy.

[Timmy]

The IP address is through Madras.

it’s definitely him then. Culver is right next to madras

[jakeinthevalley]

Yes I did. A coworker of mine is actually going over there tomorrow as his mom lives there. Probably not a great idea huh?

If he/she knows you, let me suggest taking HWY 242 on the trip over. Pay no attention to the gates on the road.

They will thank me later

[FroYoBro]

The IP address is through Madras.

:0

[runninthruda206]

https://twitter.com/SeattleWXGuy/status/1215813402964086784?s=20">This tweet shows the PSCZ over seattle!

 

not sure how to embed

[Guest LaPineLurker]

My home office is in Madras so we all use the home server.  I have no idea what is going on but if you guys are serious???

[TacomaWaWx]

Lol

[jakeinthevalley]

There is a Madras in India

[Guest LaPineLurker]

I actually developed some land back in the 80s between Madras and Prineville.  I don't divulge personal information but if you guys want specifics I have no problem.

 

Just plain weird this whole thing is.  Perhaps you should harass someone else?

[wxmet]

https://twitter.com/SeattleWXGuy/status/1215813402964086784?s=20">This tweet shows the PSCZ over seattle!

 

not sure how to embed

 

 

The snow from the c-zone may be more exciting than the mid-week system. Certainly has the potential to be more dynamic.

[Requiem]

Um...has Josh been exposed?

 

Anyways, I wasn’t too excited about this week, before I realized—- it’ll be cold, windy, and possibly snowy down here. Ensembles are fine, and even GFS is ok, there’s a lot to be decided in the next few days. We have a 980 mb low during a bunch of offshore wind— that’s cool.

[Front Ranger]

I actually developed some land back in the 80s between Madras and Prineville.  I don't divulge personal information but if you guys want specifics I have no problem.

 

Just plain weird this whole thing is.  Perhaps you should harass someone else?

 

[Front Ranger]

NAM coming in stronger, a little further north with the low Sunday.

[jakeinthevalley]

I actually developed some land back in the 80s between Madras and Prineville. I don't divulge personal information but if you guys want specifics I have no problem.

 

Just plain weird this whole thing is. Perhaps you should harass someone else?

Are you Crooked River Bob?

[TT-SEA]

NAM coming in stronger, a little further north with the low Sunday.

Still way too fast with the cold air... not going to happen.

[wxmet]

Strong PGCZ on the NAM 00z centered on the central Puget Sound. 

[Phil]

Depends how you define blockiness. No, we haven't seen the -AO/-EPO/-NAO combo the past couple months, but we've still seen a weak jetstream easily displaced by persistent blocking. The map I posted clearly showed a generally blocky look overall for the NH, just not with the extreme height anomalies in the usual spots that lead to extensive mid latitude cold.

 

But blaming the likely failure of this upcoming event to produce a top tier regional Arctic outbreak on a "lack of blocking" makes little sense.

 

Let's be clear: a sub -5 PNA is the product of big-time blocking.

The PNA is largely a form of mid-latitude blocking, as opposed to high latitude blocking. It can often serve as a precursor/loading pattern to -EPO, both in its amplified positive and negative modes, but I still believe it should be classified separately.