Iowawx Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 DVN just issued a Winter Storm Watch for areas north of interstate 80 and south of highway 20 in Iowa. They don't mention snowfall amounts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 First impression from the Euro..... the northern wave is slower. Update: Nevermind, I think I mixed up the runs. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 KCRG in eastern Iowa just posted a map going with 3-6" is all for areas east of Waterloo basically. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 First impression from the Euro..... the northern wave is slower.Looks faster to me at hr 18? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shakjen Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 DVN just issued a Winter Storm Watch for areas north of interstate 80 and south of highway 20 in Iowa. They don't mention snowfall amounts. I am sure LOT will follow this afternoon at least for the western counties. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 Looks faster to me at hr 18? You are correct, I mixed up the runs. Through 24 hours, I don't see anything that suggests southeast. Who knows, though. Little details matter. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 Euro going to be weaker and south east Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 thru 30 hours surface maps are very similar. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 Looks nearly identical 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 Euro very robust still with the lead wave in Iowa. SHowing almost 1/2" QPF for Iowa City and CR. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 Like other models this morning, the system is a bit faster to eject. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 Looks stronger than 12z at 45 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 Like other models this morning, the system is a bit faster. Seems little stronger as well Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 SLP is 2 MB stronger at 54 hours and heavier precip breaking out in E Iowa compared to 00z Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 Euro going to be weaker and south east 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 Unless the SE trends are forthcoming, my inclusion in the "Watch" will be yet another poor headline choice by my office. Seems I'm included in the Watch mainly for the "chance of transition to a mix" and gusty winds on the backside of the departing Low. I know I ride them many times for NOT including borderline counties (where I live) in their Watches, but this seems to be the ONE time I shoulda been left out! Per their own AFD: Outside of river flooding, saturated soils will enable themajority of rain to become runoff and lead to flooding of low-lying areas, farm fields, and areas with poor drainage. Again,this risk is highest along I-94 where a transition to a wintry mixis currently expected to take longest (if at all). Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 on 10:1 maps Euro with 5" for CR by noon. And the heaviest is yet to come. Good signs. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 Euro going to be weaker and south eastStop posting please, or at least check your posts at a minimum. Come on lol. 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 in the end not much different from 00z. Slightly stronger in Iowa and slightly more robust with overall snow fields. So I will take that for sure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 Cant wait to see Kuchera as temps in the low 20s while this is hitting could lead to ratios more like 15:1. Total QPF for Iowa City is 1.3". Oh and there was more to come so i posted too soon. Euro is quite a bit stronger this run for E Iowa. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 Safe to say the NAM is completely lost. Another incher for me Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 The thing is, the majority of the Cedar Rapids snowfall on the Euro map comes from the first wave. No other model has anything that robust from wave #1. Some models have rain/mix with little snow from that. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 anyone have 12Z Euro ice maps? Seems like that is what I should be most worried about here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 Weird seeing the Euro being the one throwing out some of the biggest totals. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 So now it's onward to the 00z runs. Maybe a bit more clarity by then. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 This is what the Euro shows for Saturday in E Iowa. About 5" on 10:1 with temps in the 20s, should translate into 6-8". If we get 2-4" Friday night and a storm total of 8-12", you won't hear complaints from me. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 I meant to post this map above with my last post. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 hello Euro Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 This is what the Euro shows for Saturday in E Iowa. About 5" on 10:1 with temps in the 20s, should translate into 6-8". If we get 2-4" Friday night and a storm total of 8-12", you won't hear complaints from me. I think 8" would be the max even if the track was perfect for us. It would be nice to get 4", which would at least put it into "solid storm" category. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 9, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 12z Euro... 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 20" for Madison. Not bad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 I've said this before, but I generally prefer 10:1 maps to Kuchera. If Kuchera maps were typically correct, we'd get 70 inches of snow each winter. This morning, my Mom told me that one of her friends says we are supposed to get a foot of snow. Why does her friend think that? Because Terry Swails, a local snow geek met, posts the Kuchera maps on his website. One of the local radio stations follows Terry's site. The radio station then tells its audience about the super high Kuchera totals and now its listeners all think we're going to get a foot when that is highly unlikely. Even if we end up with a nice 6", those radio listeners will think Swails and the station are over-hyping. 4 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 HRRR appears to have a potent first wave. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 I've said this before, but I generally prefer 10:1 maps to Kuchera. If Kuchera maps were typically correct, we'd get 70 inches of snow each winter. This morning, my Mom told me that one of her friends says we are supposed to get a foot of snow. Why does she think that? Because Terry Swails, a local snow geek met, posts the Kuchera maps on his website. One of the local radio stations follows Terry's site. The radio station then tells its audience about the super high Kuchera totals and now its listeners all think we're going to get a foot when that is highly unlikely. Even if we end up with a nice 6", those radio listeners will think Swails is over-hyping.Well said. Especially when considering the rather significant inversion aloft(hence all the ice lol). Despite surface temps being in the 20s, I have to think that inversion tempers ratios quite a bit. I maintain my guess of 5-8” in the heaviest band for E IA 2 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 I've said this before, but I generally prefer 10:1 maps to Kuchera. If Kuchera maps were typically correct, we'd get 70 inches of snow each winter. This morning, my Mom told me that one of her friends says we are supposed to get a foot of snow. Why does her friend think that? Because Terry Swails, a local snow geek met, posts the Kuchera maps on his website. One of the local radio stations follows Terry's site. The radio station then tells its audience about the super high Kuchera totals and now its listeners all think we're going to get a foot when that is highly unlikely. Even if we end up with a nice 6", those radio listeners will think Swails and the station are over-hyping.Yup fun to look at but rarely verify 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 How ironic is it that our first major snowstorm of the season looks to occur during the second weekend of January, just like it did back in January 2019. After January 12, 2019, the snowfall quickly added up and we finished with 50" by April, with no snow falling in November or December of 2018. I hope this is a sign that there are more snowstorms on the horrizon that will allow us to bulid up a big snowfall total for this winter. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 How ironic is it that our first major snowstorm of the season looks to occur during the second weekend of January, just like it did back in January 2019. After January 12, 2019, the snowfall quickly added up and we finished with 50" by April, with no snow falling in November or December of 2018. I hope this is a sign that there are more snowstorms on the horrizon that will allow us to bulid up a big snowfall total for this winter. Couldn't help but think of this myself. Eerily similar. Looks like we have a couple more shots at refresher snows next week as well. Sign me up for a repeat. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 I don't have a strong opinion on this. But isn't the problem with the 10:1 maps that they include sleet/ice, and therefore aren't accurate if those forms of precip are in play? Both ratio maps can be right or wrong. Of course, sometimes 10:1 won't get the job done. I am certainly not against the posting of Kuchera maps. I get as curious as the next guy what the Kuchera map is suggesting for totals. However, when trying to guess how much snow I will receive, I just like to look at the 10:1 maps and then adjust the ratio myself based on various factors. Back to the "We're supposed to get a foot" talk from my Mom's friend... I have literally never measured a foot of snow from any storm in my lifetime, so I can't imagine we'd get that much from this storm. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 Local Mets are starting to support the first wave being juicier here. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.