james1976 Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 Sure hope the HRRR is right and the NAM is wrongI'd definitely side with the HRRR before the NAM Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 I'd definitely side with the HRRR before the NAM I'm not sure I side with any model for tonight. The slightest change can make such a massive difference that either could probably be right. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 So we are at the morning of the storm, but I still don't know what to expect for snow. In general, models have gone nw with wave #1. The NAM continues to show mostly sleet here tonight, which would suck. Wave #2 is still a mystery. Global models have gone southeast and weak in general, although the 06z GFS did spread snow farther nw. Meanwhile, the NAM and HRRR insist the deformation zone snow will track well northwest of the surface features and drop the best snow right through Iowa. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 looks to be falling apart...someday a storm will wrap up again I'll trade you my 2-4 inch forecast. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 HRRR and Nam look close too where the heaviest banding is setting up Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 The one thing I have going for me being this far NW is that I should be all snow, regardless of how much I get. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 Not storm related but to top the crazy morning a mountain lion was spotted in the town just down the road from me. Well then... 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 I like my chances for snow, but its crazy to see the amount of different solutions still being advertised this morning. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 NAM with 10" on round 2 only for CR. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 Which models have been initializing the best? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 HRRR totals 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 ^closer to NAM but not as wild Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 Unfortunately, I am thinking the all-sleet NAM will be right for wave #1. Even the HRRR is trying to push the snow to the northwest of Cedar Rapids now. It just seems like these these snow/mix lines tend to end up farther north. Vinton to Waterloo looks like the best spot to be for wave #1. It's nice to see the NAM showing some nice snow during the day Saturday, though, so we could get a few inches from that. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 RGEM also showing a sleet fest for IC/CR. But 2nd wave is better defined this run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 RGEM Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 ICON finally coming around, has a pretty potent wave 2, much further east than the NAM. Wave 1 lots of rain and some ice though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 ^RGEM Looks just like the NAM...lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 Some of the CAMS showing impressive totals. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 RGEM also showing a sleet fest for IC/CR. But 2nd wave is better defined this run. If the cold-biased GEM is so widespread and north with sleet, that's likely the nail in the coffin for wave 1. If Cedar Rapids was going to get snow, the RGEM would be showing snow. The ICON is another model that is all sleet for wave 1. Fortunately, it has gone nw and stronger for wave 2. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 Some of the CAMS showing impressive totals. We'll go ahead and just lock that one in. No need for other models to run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 It's a dynamic system. Could be some nice lollipops if some convection can get going. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 this game of flip flopping between waves has been really annoying. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 Just read this from DVN..... pretty much nails it. The next 36 hours, will be dominated by a storm system offeringenough challenges to supply a winter`s worth of MEMEs. 3 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 Models probably picking up on the thunderstorms sucking up all the moisture. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 14Z HRRR really shrinks down the snow field in eastern Nebraska compared to the 12Z. Hopefully that's not a trend..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 GFS is ultra progressive with wave one Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 How ironic is it that our first major snowstorm of the season looks to occur during the second weekend of January, just like it did back in January 2019. After January 12, 2019, the snowfall quickly added up and we finished with 50" by April, with no snow falling in November or December of 2018. I hope this is a sign that there are more snowstorms on the horrizon that will allow us to bulid up a big snowfall total for this winter. Yes this winter so far sure reminds me of of our previous winter although I had a big snowstorm in late November of 2018. Yep I'm still around. Just trying to keep up with all of the comments is a challenge, so figure it's not necessary to add more! Lol I'm still a few pages behind just on this thread. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 Even the GFS has now put Cedar Rapids in mostly sleet tonight. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 Hows MSN looking with sleet? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 I'm so confused. GFS shows Sleet to SNOWSTORM here. No mention of any real accumulating snow here in the forecast. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 I'm so confused. GFS shows Sleet to SNOWSTORM here. No mention of any real accumulating snow here in the forecast. What do the other models show? Probably means they're not trusting the GFS, which I can't blame them. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 12z GFS slightly southeast from the 06z, so CR is on the nw edge of wave 2. Hows MSN looking with sleet? Looks better than Cedar Rapids, but Dane county is more into the sleet on the models than a few runs ago. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 Gfs pretty weak. 4” for Iowa city Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 I'll just watch this one from a distance. Good luck all. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 Nowcast! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 pretty incredible model spread the day of the storm. LOL. Nothing is easy in Iowa. No point to do anything but watch the radar now and hope the changeover to snow happens quickly. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 Second wave starts tomorrow evening, right? Think I'm going to enjoy the soft snow with temps in the 30s today, then get out Sunday morning for the snow. Hope there's enough. Other option is to go tomorrow evening, but it's better when there's more snow on the ground, not when it's snowing. Some models have me getting hardly anything too, so it's a toss up. Wish me luck and hope I chose wisely! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 GFS is weak sauce all together Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 The storm is really blossoming on radar 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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