Clinton Posted February 4, 2020 Report Share Posted February 4, 2020 9z SREF 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 4, 2020 Report Share Posted February 4, 2020 I'm not buying the GFS and its closed low that pulls good snow well back into Iowa. Other models are not showing this. I think 1" is the most Cedar Rapids will get, and 0.5" or less is more likely. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 4, 2020 Report Share Posted February 4, 2020 00z GEFS... 06z GFS coming in hot for N IL/SE WI...Bigly Lehs/LES signal showing up this run...I panned through all 51 EPS ensembles members and many of them show a N/NNE flow persisting through Friday am rush hour. As I mentioned before, this is prob one of the better set ups I've seen in quite some time. Not only do we have the Arctic HP to our north seeding the cold air, but the lake is running AN and its wide open for business. I'm actually getting pretty excited about this situation. Could be one hellova lake plume on this side of the lake. Reminds me of a LES set up a few years back around Christmas. Can't remember the year but we had a similar set up where that lake plume oscillated back and forth into SE WI/NE IL for 6-12 hours and dumped snow into Lake/Cook/DuPage/Will county. Hopefully the trends continue. LOT not too enthusiastic with the LES but the setup is almost perfect for our side of the lake to at least get lake enhancement to add to our totals. LES is always a wild card but still nice to see all the models showing this as a possibility through Friday morning. Either way it will be nice to have a moderate snowfall around these parts. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 4, 2020 Report Share Posted February 4, 2020 12z NAM is no farther nw, still nothing nw of far southeast Iowa. Throw the GFS out. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 4, 2020 Report Share Posted February 4, 2020 12z NAM 3 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted February 4, 2020 Report Share Posted February 4, 2020 Going to miss. What a waste.50 miles NW....Unbelievable. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 4, 2020 Report Share Posted February 4, 2020 Sleet falling this morning, hope it doesn't last to long. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 4, 2020 Report Share Posted February 4, 2020 3K NAM a little better than the regular NAM for my area and parts of E Iowa. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 4, 2020 Report Share Posted February 4, 2020 NOAA: What is becoming more uncertain now is just how long theaccumulating snow will last. Model data, primarily the ECMWF andCanadian, supports extremely broad troughing over North America withSoutheast Michigan remaining in close proximity to strongestabsolute vorticity energy pivoting from strongly positive to neutraltilt. As a result height falls linger over the area and lead tocontinued synoptic forcing for ascent. A secondary jet entranceregion is shown to lift north along baroclinic zone to our east whichleads to restrengthening of the midlevel deformation axis grindingaway over Southeast Michigan throughout the day on Friday. Throw infavorable lake enhancement component with flow off of Lake Huron andlikely fluffier snow ratios and additional accumulations (potentiallysignificant) of snow will be possible later Thursday and Friday. 3 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted February 4, 2020 Report Share Posted February 4, 2020 This is really going to be a game-time type of dynamic for me. All modes of precip expected. 1.8 or so looks to be the snow forecast, but that could just as easily be .2" more ice on the line here or could go as sleet. Someone in my state is going to get a demolishing ice event. Up to a foot of snow being tossed around out in central Ok. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 4, 2020 Report Share Posted February 4, 2020 EURO looks really good for Detroit.....especially northern suburbs where I am 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 4, 2020 Report Share Posted February 4, 2020 12z ICON is a bit southeast, now only has a flurry up to Cedar Rapids. I certainly expect the GFS to back off this morning. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted February 4, 2020 Report Share Posted February 4, 2020 While Ft. Worth won't get the big snow to our NW, we'll see sleet and some snow beginning tonight. It's already darkening and clouds are much lower. However, a few staunch. ( and may I say - lunatic-) golfers are out. This weather is only good for one thing in North Texas....the boom at auto repair body shops. 5 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted February 4, 2020 Report Share Posted February 4, 2020 A 30-60 mile wide band of moderate snow, oscillating next 72hrs. Stock up the bar... 2 Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 4, 2020 Report Share Posted February 4, 2020 EURO looks really good for Detroit.....especially northern suburbs where I am Looks good for me too. I can live with us sharing the wealth. 4 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 4, 2020 Report Share Posted February 4, 2020 12z GFS ... backed off in Iowa as expected. There's a screw zone in Oklahoma. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 4, 2020 Report Share Posted February 4, 2020 Looks like a long light snow here Thursday. 2-4" sharp cutoff. Jaster might be in the sweet spot. Would be 4 yrs in the making if it happens 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 4, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 4, 2020 12z GFS...LOT mentioned the other day that snow ratios could be between 12-16:1 iirc... 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 4, 2020 Report Share Posted February 4, 2020 So, these are supposedly the same Kuchera formula 0z maps to h96 but show different amts. I'm thinking one is the Reg Euro and the other is the HR? Can anyone confirm? Thx Tom posted: Niko posted: 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 4, 2020 Report Share Posted February 4, 2020 Looks good for me too. I can live with us sharing the wealth.Absolutely! 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 4, 2020 Report Share Posted February 4, 2020 I'm disappointed the GFS decreased so much around here, but if we did get 2" like the GFS shows, I'd still be pretty ok with that. It's definitely the furthest NW outlier though, so not putting a lot of faith in it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted February 4, 2020 Report Share Posted February 4, 2020 Everyone will live and fall next 72hrs. That being said. Be glad you are in the game.... https://youtu.be/B9z87viDmOo 1 Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 4, 2020 Report Share Posted February 4, 2020 I'm disappointed the GFS decreased so much around here, but if we did get 2" like the GFS shows, I'd still be pretty ok with that. It's definitely the furthest NW outlier though, so not putting a lot of faith in it. By the snow fall maps posted since yesterday's "come back" runs, you'd think my office would be a bit more enthused. Not! A few inches of nuisance snow per their overnight AFD written by one of their "this is everything that could go wrong" warminista Mets. Tone could flip with a different author this pm, but so typical for that office. Especially when the bigger threat is south of GR and synoptic vs LES. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 4, 2020 Report Share Posted February 4, 2020 12z GFS...LOT mentioned the other day that snow ratios could be between 12-16:1 iirc... 12z GFS almost perfect for mby. Should make for a awesome parade tomorrow in KC 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted February 4, 2020 Report Share Posted February 4, 2020 By the snow fall maps posted since yesterday's "come back" runs, you'd think my office would be a bit more enthused. Not! A few inches of nuisance snow per their overnight AFD written by one of their "this is everything that could go wrong" warminista Mets. Tone could flip with a different author this pm, but so typical for that office. Especially when the bigger threat is south of GR and synoptic vs LES. Yeah, according to them 2-4 inches tops with tiny flake size here. Maybe more for your area, but then they mention a mix SE of Grand Rapids so I get confused. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted February 4, 2020 Report Share Posted February 4, 2020 In contrast we get old. Do we look better and sound great when we are younger. Yes. Winks to Andie. https://youtu.be/NAEppFUWLfc Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 4, 2020 Report Share Posted February 4, 2020 12z GFS almost perfect for mby. Should make for a awesome parade tomorrow in KCThat should be fun! Parade + snowstorm. Wat a great combo! 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 4, 2020 Report Share Posted February 4, 2020 12z CMC 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 4, 2020 Report Share Posted February 4, 2020 12z CMCYour area seems like a lock w this. I can see this as a 4-8" for ya. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 4, 2020 Report Share Posted February 4, 2020 Your area seems like a lock w this. I can see this as a 4-8" for ya.Going to be close to that, heavier just to my SE 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 4, 2020 Report Share Posted February 4, 2020 12z UK... It has taken an axe to Chicago's snow. At this point I'm not expecting any snow here. I hope others can cash in. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 4, 2020 Report Share Posted February 4, 2020 WTOL's RPM model has no more than 3" around here. That includes the Detroit metro. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted February 4, 2020 Report Share Posted February 4, 2020 We sometimes how.. https://youtu.be/wC6bo3XJnVQ Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 4, 2020 Report Share Posted February 4, 2020 Radar shows snow in parts of Nebraska. I looked at many of the 511 cameras and nothing is falling except way out in the panhandle. Clouds here, but some sun peaking through. Dry air wins this time it would appear. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 4, 2020 Report Share Posted February 4, 2020 Going to be close to that, heavier just to my SEIsn't anticipation fun or wat! 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 4, 2020 Report Share Posted February 4, 2020 The SE trend today is definitely a concern but we are still 24+ hours away from start time so not going to worry too much just yet. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 4, 2020 Report Share Posted February 4, 2020 12z Euro much further SE. Yuck! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 4, 2020 Report Share Posted February 4, 2020 Could be a tough forecast for KC Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 4, 2020 Report Share Posted February 4, 2020 Models have been struggling with the northern part of the energy. They are now going more positive and progressive again, so the northwest tease is gone. Instead, the system veers more ene. 3 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 4, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 4, 2020 12z Euro much further SE. Yuck!Yikes! No bueno... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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