Stacsh Posted February 4, 2020 Report Share Posted February 4, 2020 Yikes. Disappointing. Oh well. Stays “warm” next week anyway. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted February 4, 2020 Report Share Posted February 4, 2020 We still got the GFS! Said nobody ever 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 4, 2020 Report Share Posted February 4, 2020 Great, yet another sick twist by the models within 48 hrs. Done with this storm following if this is again another nothing burger event in the end. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 4, 2020 Report Share Posted February 4, 2020 Yikes! No bueno... We finally get a decent shot of cold, but the HP comes down on our heads and squashes this wave instead of allowing it to grow like it normally would with a HP properly placed. Blocking done wrong 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 4, 2020 Report Share Posted February 4, 2020 12z GFS mean 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 4, 2020 Report Share Posted February 4, 2020 I feel bad being happy about this cuz I'm literally the only one in here who benefits from this SE shift lol 6 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mi_Matthew Posted February 4, 2020 Report Share Posted February 4, 2020 I feel bad being happy about this cuz I'm literally the only one in here who benefits from this SE shift lolHaha, you deserve one! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 4, 2020 Report Share Posted February 4, 2020 Let the NW trend start with the 18z modeling...you never know. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted February 4, 2020 Report Share Posted February 4, 2020 Come and get you some... Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted February 4, 2020 Report Share Posted February 4, 2020 Yikes! No bueno...Srry guys!! Best run yet for me! 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxmidatlantic Posted February 4, 2020 Report Share Posted February 4, 2020 Wife.nmber three,¿ Quote A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted February 4, 2020 Report Share Posted February 4, 2020 I feel bad being happy about this cuz I'm literally the only one in here who benefits from this SE shift lolI'm in the same boat. Lol. May be up to an advisory-worthy snow event based on averages of the 12z runs. I'd take another good 30 mile SE shift. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted February 4, 2020 Report Share Posted February 4, 2020 I'm in the same boat. Lol. May be up to an advisory-worthy snow event based on averages of the 12z runs. I'd take another good 30 mile SE shift. I think you have a good shot at that Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 4, 2020 Report Share Posted February 4, 2020 I feel bad being happy about this cuz I'm literally the only one in here who benefits from this SE shift lol Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 4, 2020 Report Share Posted February 4, 2020 Great, yet another sick twist by the models within 48 hrs. Done with this storm following if this is again another nothing burger event in the end. It could be glitch. I wouldn't worry too much. Models still cant figure this one out. Let the fun continue! 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 4, 2020 Report Share Posted February 4, 2020 The 12ZGEFS is spot on for my area. Great hit! 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 4, 2020 Report Share Posted February 4, 2020 RDPS is such a crapshoot that I'm not even gonna post it. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 4, 2020 Report Share Posted February 4, 2020 The Detroit metro still finishes with 4-6" on Euro. Not the largest amounts but not bad either with how this Winter has gone. 3 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 4, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 4, 2020 12z EPS... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 4, 2020 Report Share Posted February 4, 2020 The Detroit metro still finishes with 4-6" on Euro. Not the largest amounts but not bad either with how this Winter has gone.Very well said. Exactly!!! 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 4, 2020 Report Share Posted February 4, 2020 15z SREF not sure what to make of this. Very different from how the other models have gone today. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 4, 2020 Report Share Posted February 4, 2020 15z SREF not sure what to make of this. Very different from how the other models have gone today.Nails your area nicely. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uticasnow Posted February 4, 2020 Report Share Posted February 4, 2020 DTW is not too thrilled with any of this. Calling for 1-3" snowfall with the heaviest toward the Ohio border 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 4, 2020 Report Share Posted February 4, 2020 NWS KC take 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 4, 2020 Report Share Posted February 4, 2020 NAM. The sounding is from my area in far NW OH. Everything that isn't snow is sleet. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted February 4, 2020 Report Share Posted February 4, 2020 Went from 2-5" to maybe no snow at all. 'Tis the winter of 19-20. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 4, 2020 Report Share Posted February 4, 2020 From CLE. It's very rare that they mention Toledo. Usually they like to pretend their CWA ends in Sandusky and Toledo doesn't exist. .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...The short term begins Wednesday night with precipitation approachingthe area from the southwest. PoP chances quickly ramp up tocategorical across the area by 05Z Thursday, supported bystrong isentropic lift. Precipitation will exit much of the areaby 18Z, with only chance PoPs remaining. Precipitation typewill be tricky Wednesday night into Thursday morning withmesoscale and global models continuing to offer varyingtemperature profiles. As a result, a mixed-bag of rain, sleet,freezing rain, and snow are all possible across the area. TheECMWF and Canadian are on the colder side, the NAM on the warmerside, while the GFS is in between both solutions. Have taken amodel blend of these solutions which pushes an area of sleet andfreezing rain from our southern tier, northwards towards thelakeshore by Thursday morning. Storm total ice accumulationsrange from a few hundredths to a tenth of an inch with theheaviest freezing rain to occur between 06-12Z Thursday. Rain,sleet, freezing rain, and snow amounts may still change over thenext day as confidence in precipitation type and locationincreases. Snow will occur ahead of the sleet and freezingrain line with up to an inch possible along the lakeshore and upto 3 to 4 inches expected in Northwest Ohio, around Toledo. Awinter weather advisory will likely be needed across much of thearea Wednesday night into Thursday morning, mostly for thethreat of freezing rain, although we may hit advisory criteriafor snow in NW OH as well.On Thursday, a cold front will swing east across the area by theevening hours, ushering in another chance for mixed-precipitation,although it looks to be more of a snow, rain/snow mix more thananything. Snow accumulations will range from half an inch up to aninch and a half Thursday night into Friday morning across much ofthe area. Temperatures throughout the day Friday will range in theupper 20s to low 30s, then drop towards the low 20s by Friday night.High pressure will briefly build across the area Saturday, with onlya slight chance of precipitation possible as we head towardsSaturday night. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.A wintry mix is expected Wednesday night and will linger acrossNorthwest Ohio into Thursday morning. One to four inches of snow andsleet will impact the Toledo Metro area and surrounding counties byThursday morning. A brief period of freezing rain, accumulating to alight glaze, is possible before precipitation tapers off. 2 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianJK Posted February 4, 2020 Report Share Posted February 4, 2020 12z Euro...big step back... Finally back to its senses 12z Euro...as @BrianJK once said, the Euro is "back to its senses"... 12z Euro much further SE. Yuck! Yikes! No bueno... Hopefully you didn't fall for it this time Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 4, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 4, 2020 Hopefully you didn't fall for it this timeFall for what? A snowstorm or those lolipopp totals? I was enthusiastic seeing the shift yesterday but today it hasn’t gone the way I’d anticipated. It’s too bad the system is trending weaker but at least we’ll see some snow out of this. I’ll be honest, after yesterday’s runs I thought 4” was a good bet. Now I’m hoping to see at least 2-3” to whiten back up the landscape. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kush61 Posted February 4, 2020 Report Share Posted February 4, 2020 ... for us East of Ohio ! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mgeha Posted February 4, 2020 Report Share Posted February 4, 2020 From CLE. It's very rare that they mention Toledo. Usually they like to pretend their CWA ends in Sandusky and Toledo doesn't exist.I'm a Sylvania guy as well and this is SO true. I used to think they hated Toledo when I was a kid, LOL. You remember when the Office was out of Toledo Express?? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 4, 2020 Report Share Posted February 4, 2020 I'm a Sylvania guy as well and this is SO true. I used to think they hated Toledo when I was a kid, LOL. You remember when the Office was out of Toledo Express??Ah, hey Toledbro! I'm just South of you in Holland. No, I just moved here from Nebraska last Summer. When did they move? Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 5, 2020 Report Share Posted February 5, 2020 Left with NAM to ride. GFS at 18z still solid too. Who knows? Might be more plot twists yet.. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted February 5, 2020 Report Share Posted February 5, 2020 Left with NAM to ride. GFS at 18z still solid too. Who knows? Might be more plot twists yet..I’m hoping. But looks like it’s going to be very weak through here. Hoping for a surprise. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 5, 2020 Report Share Posted February 5, 2020 18z Euro and Euro control and mean 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 5, 2020 Report Share Posted February 5, 2020 00z NAM back north a little bit. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 5, 2020 Report Share Posted February 5, 2020 Radar echos are moving more north northeast instead of northeast I believe that should favor the further west models. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 5, 2020 Report Share Posted February 5, 2020 Radar echos are moving more north northeast instead of northeast I believe that should favor the further west models. Isn't that just tonight's little wave tho? Then a CF actually settles a bit S, thus the trends SE? At least that's what I thought the script called for last I looked. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 5, 2020 Report Share Posted February 5, 2020 Isn't that just tonight's little wave tho? Then a CF actually settles a bit S, thus the trends SE? At least that's what I thought the script called for last I looked. I think the echos sw of Lubbock are assosiated with the main storm but I could be wrong. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 5, 2020 Report Share Posted February 5, 2020 00z NAM back north a little bit.Worth also noting that NAM has a consistent warm bias aloft. Hard to take the South edge of it too seriously with that in mind. 3 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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