Grizzcoat Posted February 23, 2020 Report Share Posted February 23, 2020 not buying the GEM at HR 78. L in Ohio and throwing appreciable snows nearly back to OMA? 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 23, 2020 Report Share Posted February 23, 2020 Snow ratios on the GEM are lower than 10:1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 23, 2020 Report Share Posted February 23, 2020 not buying the GEM at HR 78. L in Ohio and throwing appreciable snows nearly back to OMA? I think that’s misleading Low is in western IN at HR 84 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 23, 2020 Report Share Posted February 23, 2020 00z Canadian - The intensity of the snow has been dialed back quite a bit. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 23, 2020 Report Share Posted February 23, 2020 Ukie about to start. It’s basically not even been showing a storm in previous runs. So let’s see if it’s finally on board 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 23, 2020 Report Share Posted February 23, 2020 There are still significant differences between the models with regard to upper low track, surface low track, phasing timing, etc. I'm not counting on anything, yet. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 23, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 23, 2020 feeling good in madison but that can change in one set of models 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 23, 2020 Report Share Posted February 23, 2020 Ukie still says what storm? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 23, 2020 Report Share Posted February 23, 2020 Ukie continues to be a no show. Worlds apart from the other models. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 23, 2020 Report Share Posted February 23, 2020 I'm not feeling great about this. There is still way too much variance among the models. Cedar Rapids could still get 10 inches or nothing. 00z UK Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted February 23, 2020 Report Share Posted February 23, 2020 It's just such a joke how much models have varied in the relative short range this winter. I feel like models were better 5-10 years ago. 4 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mi_Matthew Posted February 23, 2020 Report Share Posted February 23, 2020 not buying the GEM at HR 78. L in Ohio and throwing appreciable snows nearly back to OMA? Definitely possible. Elongated trough vs. full phase. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted February 23, 2020 Report Share Posted February 23, 2020 I’ve got a feeling the uk is on to something Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mi_Matthew Posted February 23, 2020 Report Share Posted February 23, 2020 I’ve got a feeling the uk is on to somethingLiterally was about to post the same thought. Gut says GFS is a total toss. Almost everything else moved a touch SE. Give it 2 more runs and the NW trend will commence. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 23, 2020 Report Share Posted February 23, 2020 Well- not throwing in the towel. Wilder's corner just did. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted February 23, 2020 Report Share Posted February 23, 2020 Fury destroyed wilder 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 23, 2020 Report Share Posted February 23, 2020 One thing I notice about the 00z Euro is the lead wave is a bit faster and the trailing wave a bit slower... not a good combo for phasing. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 23, 2020 Report Share Posted February 23, 2020 #$*&^$ The Euro just trended toward the UK. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 23, 2020 Report Share Posted February 23, 2020 00z Euro - Good for Chicago, terrible for Iowa. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 23, 2020 Report Share Posted February 23, 2020 If there is any further spreading of the distance between the waves, the Euro will look exactly like the UK and Iowa will be done. We just can't count on anything phasing properly this winter. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 23, 2020 Report Share Posted February 23, 2020 Lol @ this making a beeline straight for Chicago inside 84 hours. What a joke. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 23, 2020 Report Share Posted February 23, 2020 There is a reason why I've only had four 8" snow events over the last decade. It is incredibly difficult to get all the pieces to come together just right. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 23, 2020 Report Share Posted February 23, 2020 There is a reason why I've only had about four 8" snow events over the last decade. It is incredibly difficult to get all the pieces to come together just right.What irritates me is that Chicago, in the same climate(more or less) has absolutely no trouble putting together 10-12” snows and this one(as of 00z and especially if trends continue) will be yet another for them. Unbelievable. No one has anything on eastern Iowa when it comes to getting screwed out of 10”+ snowfalls. 3 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mi_Matthew Posted February 23, 2020 Report Share Posted February 23, 2020 Baby steps towards final consensus. Good to see the steps toward the middle vs. opposing sides. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 23, 2020 Report Share Posted February 23, 2020 Super disappointing run on the Euro. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bellona Posted February 23, 2020 Report Share Posted February 23, 2020 If this doesn't pan out for me here, put a fork in it, and I'm ready for spring Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plowguy-dupage county Posted February 23, 2020 Report Share Posted February 23, 2020 What irritates me is that Chicago, in the same climate(more or less) has absolutely no trouble putting together 10-12” snows and this one(as of 00z and especially if trends continue) will be yet another for them. Unbelievable. No one has anything on eastern Iowa when it comes to getting screwed out of 10”+ snowfalls.Ummm. Our biggest snow this year was 3.4". Not sure how you think we're stealing all the storms. Lol 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 23, 2020 Report Share Posted February 23, 2020 Ummm. Our biggest snow this year was 3.4". Not sure how you think we're stealing all the storms. LolLook at your record since 2010 and get back to me. Thanks. 2 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 23, 2020 Report Share Posted February 23, 2020 I’d like to see a kuchera map of the euro. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted February 23, 2020 Report Share Posted February 23, 2020 Look at your record since 2010 and get back to me. Thanks. Too freaking funny. Chicago regularly scores 12-18" storms. The average snowfall at ORD is just exponentially increasing.... Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 23, 2020 Report Share Posted February 23, 2020 so you think the nam cmc and euro all cave to the great gfs?EXACTLY what is happening.The EURO is a shell of itself from years back. For as much bashing the GFS gets it's time to trash the king as it has been abysmal the last 6 weeks or so. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 23, 2020 Report Share Posted February 23, 2020 NAM coming in farther SE as well Ukie ftw? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 23, 2020 Report Share Posted February 23, 2020 6z NAM taking a dip south Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 23, 2020 Report Share Posted February 23, 2020 That is a LARGE jump SE on 06NAM for this range. SE trend continues and if so- only E.IA has a chance at 4-6' when it's all said and done with maybe 1-2" in C.IA Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 23, 2020 Report Share Posted February 23, 2020 3K NAM is not as far south Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 23, 2020 Report Share Posted February 23, 2020 3K NAM is not as far southit's not- but big changes from 54 to 60 (06Z - 00Z). Wagons E and N. Once it gets in range in about 24 hours it will have shifted SE -- just my .02 but really nothing is bucking that trend other than the last 6 hrs of 3km NAm of which i put no hope in. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 23, 2020 Report Share Posted February 23, 2020 3K NAM is outstanding for eastern Iowa. At hour 60 snow still falling in earnest and up to about 10” in Iowa city. Can only hope models move back towards this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 23, 2020 Report Share Posted February 23, 2020 06Z ICON continues the run SE... that's a 11-0 unanswered run. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 23, 2020 Report Share Posted February 23, 2020 Nice write up by DVN. Mentions the GEFS, seems that is the guidance they are using right now but says a lot of uncertainty yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 23, 2020 Report Share Posted February 23, 2020 6z GFS shifting further west than 00z. Looks good in eastern Iowa Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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