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2/24-2/26 Snow (Ring the doorbell so the big dog wakes up!!!)


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Win at what? Where's your input besides trolling every model run?

Up to 2.5" now...the top layer has the look of puff balls...everything is covered with a nice covering of snow...it's back to Winter in this yo-yo season.  Should be a nice scenery when daylight emerg

The bet is to usually go with the model that shows the least snow and go with that.

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Here's a shocker, the NWS thinks the GFS is way off base.

 

 

Sunday night into Monday the GEM/ECMWF/GFS both have a system
affecting the area. The momentum fields vary widely between the
models so confidence is low on potential impacts. We currently look
to start out with rain and then transitioning to snow across the
area. Amounts of for each are uncertain at this time as the GFS
says its game on and the GEM says we barely get clipped, with the
ECMWF between these two. Believe the GFS is greatly overdone and if
not using a blended like forecast, would stay away from. Otherwise
we will have to wait until we get closer to determine effects.

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Season Snowfall: 39.5"

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The desperation around here is palpable.

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2020-21 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 51.6"

(Oct. 18: 0.6") (Oct 19: 2.0") (Nov. ?: 1.5") (Dec. 12: 3.7") (Dec. 23: 0.5") (Dec. 27: 1.2") (Dec. 29: 9.2") (Jan. 15: 2.3”) (Jan 17. 1.1”)  (Jan. 24: 2.5”) (Jan. 26: 6.8") (Jan. 31: 8.5") (Feb. 4: 5.0") (Feb. 6: 0.5") (Feb. 8: 1.0") (Feb. 11: 1.2") (Feb. 13: 1.3") (Feb. 21: 2.7")

 

 

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Maybe in two weeks...

Looking at your post history, you seem to be a bundle of joy.

 

Not saying you're wrong on a lot of your posts, but couldn't hurt to be a bit more decent.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Looking at your post history, you seem to be a bundle of joy.

 

Not saying you're wrong on a lot of your posts, but couldn't hurt to be a bit more decent.

I’ve been winning all winter long while all the wishcasters keep posting the failing models in hopes that it may confirm their cold biases.

 

My grandpa used to say “a broken clock is right twice a day” but he obviously never read this forum. Keep relying on 240 hours out showing the “big dog” or “b word” ... I’ll just keep being right.

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Tonight's Euro is very interesting.  The lead system is about the same, but then the trailing energy digs much more again and the kicker energy is no longer diving out of Canada.  The trailing energy tries to grab the lead energy and stretch it back across the region.  The trailing energy then turns into a biggie storm.  The lead system takes away much of the moisture, but the trailing energy is strong and still manages to produce heavy snow.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Tonight's Euro is very interesting.  The lead system is about the same, but then the trailing energy digs much more again and the kicker energy is no longer diving out of Canada.  The trailing energy tries to grab the lead energy and stretch it back across the region.  The trailing energy then turns into a biggie storm.  The lead system takes away much of the moisture, but the trailing energy is strong and still manages to produce heavy snow.

and keeps nearly all the rain outta of IA. If it's not going snow with the first wave- might as well keep the mud down until it's covered up again with snow.

http://proa.accuweather.com/gradsimage10/ecmwfued/00Z/ecmwfued-null--usnc-168-C-kucheratot.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Yet another system to track with so many moving parts.  It seems like an endless theme this season with multiple pieces that need to come together in order to deliver a sizable snowstorm.  While the Euro does look generous in the snow dept, it's the only one suggesting it so far.  Most of the models have backed off on a large snowstorm but are not that far off in terms of the idea of phasing both pieces of energy into one main storm system across the heartland.  

 

00z Euro/Control...KC crush job...this would be the best case scenario for many members across the central/eastern Sub this entire season.  We have seen plenty of runs as such before, I'd ride on the side of extra caution while reading to much into these snow maps.  

 

 

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After analyzing the 00z EPS, IMO it is seeing the potential of really slowing down this storm system across the MW and into the OHV.  The strong and expansive HP that is forecast to build and strengthen across the northern tier and most of Southern/Central Canada will be causing the flow aloft to SLOW down quite a bit.  Just like we saw in previous LRC cycles, I'm starting to believe in this idea of a slow/pivoting storm system that is going to be juiced up.  The lead energy is showing more signs of producing snow on the northern periphery and while doing so, the HP to the north will begin to incorporate arctic air into the system while the secondary piece dives SE into the central Rockies/Plains and takes over.

 

The big difference among the models is the Euro showing a much stronger secondary closed low across the central Plains...it takes 24 hours to track just a few hundred miles into IN.

 

500hv.conus.png

 

 

500hv.conus.png

 

 

 

The 00z EPS snow mean did trend more widespread but also a bit N this run...

 

 

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Yet another system to track with so many moving parts.  It seems like an endless theme this season with multiple pieces that need to come together in order to deliver a sizable snowstorm.  While the Euro does look generous in the snow dept, it's the only one suggesting it so far.  Most of the models have backed off on a large snowstorm but are not that far off in terms of the idea of phasing both pieces of energy into one main storm system across the heartland.  

 

00z Euro/Control...KC crush job...this would be the best case scenario for many members across the central/eastern Sub this entire season.  We have seen plenty of runs as such before, I'd ride on the side of extra caution while reading to much into these snow maps.  

A lot of the CMC ensembles match up with the Euro well.

1582848000-UJBWUdarA9M.png

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The 12z GFS trended a bit toward last night's Euro.  It is still farther north with the lead system and the trailing system is not as strong as the euro until much farther east.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Now the UK is doing something similar.  The first system is farther north, then the trailing energy keeps the snow band hanging back for a while.

 

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The 12z op Euro just undid every positive change on last night's 00z run.  Now it doesn't have squat for snow anywhere.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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It's ok, there will be another one in 10 days out that we can track until it fades away as well. No denying that this winter is pretty much over and is trash.

I'm sure this will change 100 times with every model run but on a serious note the setup will probably yield some snow somewhere in the area but I don't think it's going to be anything worth writing about.

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This is prob THE biggest shift I've ever seen from the EPS in a 12 hour period for the EPS snow mean.  Just a crazy shift after days of runs it basically wiped away the snow in the Plains/Upper MW/MW....that's just ridiculous!

 

I posted today's 12z EPS vs 00z from last night...what the...????

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This is prob THE biggest shift I've ever seen from the EPS in a 12 hour period for the EPS snow mean.  Just a crazy shift after days of runs it basically wiped away the snow in the Plains/Upper MW/MW....that's just ridiculous!

 

I posted today's 12z EPS vs 00z from last night...what the...????

 

Sad.

 

It has just been super difficult to get the pieces to come together to produce big storms this winter.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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This is prob THE biggest shift I've ever seen from the EPS in a 12 hour period for the EPS snow mean.  Just a crazy shift after days of runs it basically wiped away the snow in the Plains/Upper MW/MW....that's just ridiculous!

 

I posted today's 12z EPS vs 00z from last night...what the...????

Still several days away.  The only guarantee we have is that there will be many more changes in the days to come. 

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It's ok, there will be another one in 10 days out that we can track until it fades away as well. No denying that this winter is pretty much over and is trash.

 

When it comes to storms/storms coming together/storm tracking, couldn't agree more.

 

Totally this!

 

Dumpster Fire.PNG

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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And OAX is actually hyping this for some reason LOL. They must be really bored. 

I actually thought that myself. It seems "odd" to put out a graphic for a questionable and marginal setup that is 4 days away yet....

Even if it does snow, it doesn't look like anything too disruptive beyond maybe snowing during rush hour Monday morning

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Rare UKMET mention in the AFD from DVN

 

 

The UKMET overspreads precipitation across the entire area Monday
through Wednesday before ending. The UKMET also has a potentially
ominous track pointing to accumulating snow for the area.

The CMC global overspreads precipitation across the entire area
similar to the UKMET but with a timing similar to the ECMWF.
Precipitation would be initially rain with a rain/snow mix over the
northwest half of the area with precipitation changing to all snow
before ending. Additionally the CMC global suggests the potential
for snow showers Tuesday into Wednesday night with upper level
disturbances behind the storm system.

Season Snowfall: 39.5"

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LOL!

 

The best winter ever continues ... and only 9 days until meteorological SPRING!

 

Can’t wait to see what the models spit out next to keep all of the Pavlov dogs drooling until it disappears. I am canceling my DirecTV because this is way more entertaining and fun to watch. All I do is WIN!

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LOL!

 

The best winter ever continues ... and only 9 days until meteorological SPRING!

 

Can’t wait to see what the models spit out next to keep all of the Pavlov dogs drooling until it disappears. I am canceling my DirecTV because this is way more entertaining and fun to watch. All I do is WIN!

MAGA!!!
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LOL!

 

The best winter ever continues ... and only 9 days until meteorological SPRING!

 

Can’t wait to see what the models spit out next to keep all of the Pavlov dogs drooling until it disappears. I am canceling my DirecTV because this is way more entertaining and fun to watch. All I do is WIN!

Win at what? Where's your input besides trolling every model run?
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Still seeing quite the model discrepancies, although, it appears that there is some indication the second piece of energy skirts across the S MW and into the OHV where it phases (potential Bomb?) across the eastern Sub???  Yesterday's 12z Euro lost the storm, last night it brought it back, I'm sure we'll see more changes over the next few days with this system.  Could be one of the more stronger storm systems we have tracked for the eastern Sub.

 

00z Euro...

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00z GEFS...still quite a lot of spread among the members...of note, however, I'm seeing a similar characteristic which has happened in previous cycles whereby the storm rapidly intensifies and then occludes near the GL's region.  I'm seeing this being picked up by several GEFS members.

 

GEFSMW_prec_snens_174.png

 

GEFSMW_prec_ptypens_138.png

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00z EPS...a little better out west into IA and parts of E NE/KC region...the track of the stronger secondary vortex through the MW should produce more snow than what the operational models are showing now.  I've seen this happen in similar circumstances in the past and have learned that wherever this closed low tracks usually produces the heaviest precip where max lift is produced.  Nonetheless, rest assured, we aren't done yet with model volatility.  

 

Edit: Looking closer near the GL's region, there is definitely a Lehs signal being picked up.  Boy, there are some big time hits per the EPS members.

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06z GFS...starting to show the big potential in and around the GL's/MW region...lots of moving parts with this system but the idea of a phasing and rapidly intensifying storm system near the GL's/OHV is starting to look like a good possibility.

 

 

 

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

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