Madtown 1092 Posted February 19, 2020 Report Share Posted February 19, 2020 Ding Dong! 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Tony 893 Posted February 19, 2020 Report Share Posted February 19, 2020 The Big Dog is unfortunately not home and will be out of town till next winter!.Please come back around Halloween. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
bud2380 3520 Posted February 19, 2020 Report Share Posted February 19, 2020 Here's a shocker, the NWS thinks the GFS is way off base. Sunday night into Monday the GEM/ECMWF/GFS both have a systemaffecting the area. The momentum fields vary widely between themodels so confidence is low on potential impacts. We currently lookto start out with rain and then transitioning to snow across thearea. Amounts of for each are uncertain at this time as the GFSsays its game on and the GEM says we barely get clipped, with theECMWF between these two. Believe the GFS is greatly overdone and ifnot using a blended like forecast, would stay away from. Otherwisewe will have to wait until we get closer to determine effects. 1 Quote Season Snowfall: 39.5" Link to post Share on other sites
hlcater 1325 Posted February 19, 2020 Report Share Posted February 19, 2020 The desperation around here is palpable. 4 Quote 2020-21 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 51.6" (Oct. 18: 0.6") (Oct 19: 2.0") (Nov. ?: 1.5") (Dec. 12: 3.7") (Dec. 23: 0.5") (Dec. 27: 1.2") (Dec. 29: 9.2") (Jan. 15: 2.3”) (Jan 17. 1.1”) (Jan. 24: 2.5”) (Jan. 26: 6.8") (Jan. 31: 8.5") (Feb. 4: 5.0") (Feb. 6: 0.5") (Feb. 8: 1.0") (Feb. 11: 1.2") (Feb. 13: 1.3") (Feb. 21: 2.7") Link to post Share on other sites
Stacsh 904 Posted February 19, 2020 Report Share Posted February 19, 2020 The desperation around here is palpable.I’m excited for sunny and 40’s this weekend. That’s a lock. whatever happens (snow wise) after that will be a bonus. 10 days til March. 4 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
james1976 3976 Posted February 19, 2020 Report Share Posted February 19, 2020 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
IowaWX82 5 Posted February 19, 2020 Report Share Posted February 19, 2020 Maybe in two weeks... Quote Link to post Share on other sites
FAR_Weather 5220 Posted February 20, 2020 Report Share Posted February 20, 2020 Maybe in two weeks...Looking at your post history, you seem to be a bundle of joy. Not saying you're wrong on a lot of your posts, but couldn't hurt to be a bit more decent. 5 Quote >1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4") Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6" Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15) First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT Link to post Share on other sites
Madtown 1092 Posted February 20, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 20, 2020 Someone will get snow outta this Quote Link to post Share on other sites
IowaWX82 5 Posted February 20, 2020 Report Share Posted February 20, 2020 Looking at your post history, you seem to be a bundle of joy. Not saying you're wrong on a lot of your posts, but couldn't hurt to be a bit more decent.I’ve been winning all winter long while all the wishcasters keep posting the failing models in hopes that it may confirm their cold biases. My grandpa used to say “a broken clock is right twice a day” but he obviously never read this forum. Keep relying on 240 hours out showing the “big dog” or “b word” ... I’ll just keep being right. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Bellona 122 Posted February 20, 2020 Report Share Posted February 20, 2020 And my grandfather used to say, "He thinks his sh*t don't stink, but his farts give him away." Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Craig-OmahaWX 381 Posted February 20, 2020 Report Share Posted February 20, 2020 With the AO being positive can't really see this being a big snow maker anywhere. We are all desperately running out of time here in Nebraska lol Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to post Share on other sites
Hawkeye 4600 Posted February 20, 2020 Report Share Posted February 20, 2020 Tonight's Euro is very interesting. The lead system is about the same, but then the trailing energy digs much more again and the kicker energy is no longer diving out of Canada. The trailing energy tries to grab the lead energy and stretch it back across the region. The trailing energy then turns into a biggie storm. The lead system takes away much of the moisture, but the trailing energy is strong and still manages to produce heavy snow. 2 Quote season snowfall: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" '16-17: 17.9" '15-16: 20.0" '14-15: 30.4" '13-14: 48.3" '12-13: 34.1" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to post Share on other sites
Grizzcoat 3790 Posted February 20, 2020 Report Share Posted February 20, 2020 Tonight's Euro is very interesting. The lead system is about the same, but then the trailing energy digs much more again and the kicker energy is no longer diving out of Canada. The trailing energy tries to grab the lead energy and stretch it back across the region. The trailing energy then turns into a biggie storm. The lead system takes away much of the moisture, but the trailing energy is strong and still manages to produce heavy snow.and keeps nearly all the rain outta of IA. If it's not going snow with the first wave- might as well keep the mud down until it's covered up again with snow.http://proa.accuweather.com/gradsimage10/ecmwfued/00Z/ecmwfued-null--usnc-168-C-kucheratot.png 3 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to post Share on other sites
Tom 16887 Posted February 20, 2020 Report Share Posted February 20, 2020 Yet another system to track with so many moving parts. It seems like an endless theme this season with multiple pieces that need to come together in order to deliver a sizable snowstorm. While the Euro does look generous in the snow dept, it's the only one suggesting it so far. Most of the models have backed off on a large snowstorm but are not that far off in terms of the idea of phasing both pieces of energy into one main storm system across the heartland. 00z Euro/Control...KC crush job...this would be the best case scenario for many members across the central/eastern Sub this entire season. We have seen plenty of runs as such before, I'd ride on the side of extra caution while reading to much into these snow maps. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Tom 16887 Posted February 20, 2020 Report Share Posted February 20, 2020 00z Canadian phases and digs the storm farther east... 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Tom 16887 Posted February 20, 2020 Report Share Posted February 20, 2020 After analyzing the 00z EPS, IMO it is seeing the potential of really slowing down this storm system across the MW and into the OHV. The strong and expansive HP that is forecast to build and strengthen across the northern tier and most of Southern/Central Canada will be causing the flow aloft to SLOW down quite a bit. Just like we saw in previous LRC cycles, I'm starting to believe in this idea of a slow/pivoting storm system that is going to be juiced up. The lead energy is showing more signs of producing snow on the northern periphery and while doing so, the HP to the north will begin to incorporate arctic air into the system while the secondary piece dives SE into the central Rockies/Plains and takes over. The big difference among the models is the Euro showing a much stronger secondary closed low across the central Plains...it takes 24 hours to track just a few hundred miles into IN. The 00z EPS snow mean did trend more widespread but also a bit N this run... 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Clinton 4429 Posted February 20, 2020 Report Share Posted February 20, 2020 Yet another system to track with so many moving parts. It seems like an endless theme this season with multiple pieces that need to come together in order to deliver a sizable snowstorm. While the Euro does look generous in the snow dept, it's the only one suggesting it so far. Most of the models have backed off on a large snowstorm but are not that far off in terms of the idea of phasing both pieces of energy into one main storm system across the heartland. 00z Euro/Control...KC crush job...this would be the best case scenario for many members across the central/eastern Sub this entire season. We have seen plenty of runs as such before, I'd ride on the side of extra caution while reading to much into these snow maps. A lot of the CMC ensembles match up with the Euro well. 4 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Hawkeye 4600 Posted February 20, 2020 Report Share Posted February 20, 2020 The 12z GFS trended a bit toward last night's Euro. It is still farther north with the lead system and the trailing system is not as strong as the euro until much farther east. 2 Quote season snowfall: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" '16-17: 17.9" '15-16: 20.0" '14-15: 30.4" '13-14: 48.3" '12-13: 34.1" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to post Share on other sites
FarmerRick 211 Posted February 20, 2020 Report Share Posted February 20, 2020 OmaDome for the win... 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Hawkeye 4600 Posted February 20, 2020 Report Share Posted February 20, 2020 Now the UK is doing something similar. The first system is farther north, then the trailing energy keeps the snow band hanging back for a while. 3 Quote season snowfall: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" '16-17: 17.9" '15-16: 20.0" '14-15: 30.4" '13-14: 48.3" '12-13: 34.1" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to post Share on other sites
Clinton 4429 Posted February 20, 2020 Report Share Posted February 20, 2020 12z GFS mean Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Hawkeye 4600 Posted February 20, 2020 Report Share Posted February 20, 2020 The 12z op Euro just undid every positive change on last night's 00z run. Now it doesn't have squat for snow anywhere. 2 Quote season snowfall: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" '16-17: 17.9" '15-16: 20.0" '14-15: 30.4" '13-14: 48.3" '12-13: 34.1" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to post Share on other sites
Stacsh 904 Posted February 20, 2020 Report Share Posted February 20, 2020 Bye bye storm. Shocking. 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
CentralNebWeather 4715 Posted February 20, 2020 Report Share Posted February 20, 2020 When you lose the Euro it is tough to be confident. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Tony 893 Posted February 20, 2020 Report Share Posted February 20, 2020 Bye bye storm. Shocking. It's ok, there will be another one in 10 days out that we can track until it fades away as well. No denying that this winter is pretty much over and is trash. 4 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Nelson 8 Posted February 20, 2020 Report Share Posted February 20, 2020 Looks pretty similar to yesterdays 12z run to me.... Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Nelson 8 Posted February 20, 2020 Report Share Posted February 20, 2020 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Tony 893 Posted February 20, 2020 Report Share Posted February 20, 2020 It's ok, there will be another one in 10 days out that we can track until it fades away as well. No denying that this winter is pretty much over and is trash.I'm sure this will change 100 times with every model run but on a serious note the setup will probably yield some snow somewhere in the area but I don't think it's going to be anything worth writing about. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Stacsh 904 Posted February 20, 2020 Report Share Posted February 20, 2020 That's the lead wave. Mostly a rainer. This run doesn't develop a second storm until the east coast. Disappointing. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Tom 16887 Posted February 20, 2020 Report Share Posted February 20, 2020 Massive changes on the 12z EPS...primarily for the second wave as it digs deep and then goes neg tilt around the Apps/OHV...the lead wave went south this run... Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Tom 16887 Posted February 20, 2020 Report Share Posted February 20, 2020 This is prob THE biggest shift I've ever seen from the EPS in a 12 hour period for the EPS snow mean. Just a crazy shift after days of runs it basically wiped away the snow in the Plains/Upper MW/MW....that's just ridiculous! I posted today's 12z EPS vs 00z from last night...what the...???? 4 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Hawkeye 4600 Posted February 20, 2020 Report Share Posted February 20, 2020 This is prob THE biggest shift I've ever seen from the EPS in a 12 hour period for the EPS snow mean. Just a crazy shift after days of runs it basically wiped away the snow in the Plains/Upper MW/MW....that's just ridiculous! I posted today's 12z EPS vs 00z from last night...what the...???? Sad. It has just been super difficult to get the pieces to come together to produce big storms this winter. 2 Quote season snowfall: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" '16-17: 17.9" '15-16: 20.0" '14-15: 30.4" '13-14: 48.3" '12-13: 34.1" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to post Share on other sites
SE Wisconsin 157 Posted February 20, 2020 Report Share Posted February 20, 2020 This is prob THE biggest shift I've ever seen from the EPS in a 12 hour period for the EPS snow mean. Just a crazy shift after days of runs it basically wiped away the snow in the Plains/Upper MW/MW....that's just ridiculous! I posted today's 12z EPS vs 00z from last night...what the...????Still several days away. The only guarantee we have is that there will be many more changes in the days to come. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Clinton 4429 Posted February 20, 2020 Report Share Posted February 20, 2020 CMC mean has a mixed bag of ensembles. Something is giving the models fits, I don't think we should give up on this yet. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
jaster220 8344 Posted February 20, 2020 Report Share Posted February 20, 2020 It's ok, there will be another one in 10 days out that we can track until it fades away as well. No denying that this winter is pretty much over and is trash. When it comes to storms/storms coming together/storm tracking, couldn't agree more. Totally this! 1 Quote Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1" Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16) Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 Annual avg for mby = 49.7" Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal) 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to post Share on other sites
GDR 665 Posted February 20, 2020 Report Share Posted February 20, 2020 Calm down everyone! This might not be a great storm or storm at all, but wait until two weeks! 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
snowstorm83 2042 Posted February 20, 2020 Report Share Posted February 20, 2020 And OAX is actually hyping this for some reason LOL. They must be really bored. 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" (so far) Average: 25.9" Link to post Share on other sites
OmahaSnowFan 1386 Posted February 20, 2020 Report Share Posted February 20, 2020 And OAX is actually hyping this for some reason LOL. They must be really bored. I actually thought that myself. It seems "odd" to put out a graphic for a questionable and marginal setup that is 4 days away yet....Even if it does snow, it doesn't look like anything too disruptive beyond maybe snowing during rush hour Monday morning 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
bud2380 3520 Posted February 20, 2020 Report Share Posted February 20, 2020 Rare UKMET mention in the AFD from DVN The UKMET overspreads precipitation across the entire area Mondaythrough Wednesday before ending. The UKMET also has a potentiallyominous track pointing to accumulating snow for the area.The CMC global overspreads precipitation across the entire areasimilar to the UKMET but with a timing similar to the ECMWF.Precipitation would be initially rain with a rain/snow mix over thenorthwest half of the area with precipitation changing to all snowbefore ending. Additionally the CMC global suggests the potentialfor snow showers Tuesday into Wednesday night with upper leveldisturbances behind the storm system. Quote Season Snowfall: 39.5" Link to post Share on other sites
IowaWX82 5 Posted February 20, 2020 Report Share Posted February 20, 2020 LOL! The best winter ever continues ... and only 9 days until meteorological SPRING! Can’t wait to see what the models spit out next to keep all of the Pavlov dogs drooling until it disappears. I am canceling my DirecTV because this is way more entertaining and fun to watch. All I do is WIN! Quote Link to post Share on other sites
GDR 665 Posted February 20, 2020 Report Share Posted February 20, 2020 LOL! The best winter ever continues ... and only 9 days until meteorological SPRING! Can’t wait to see what the models spit out next to keep all of the Pavlov dogs drooling until it disappears. I am canceling my DirecTV because this is way more entertaining and fun to watch. All I do is WIN! MAGA!!! 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
james1976 3976 Posted February 20, 2020 Report Share Posted February 20, 2020 LOL! The best winter ever continues ... and only 9 days until meteorological SPRING! Can’t wait to see what the models spit out next to keep all of the Pavlov dogs drooling until it disappears. I am canceling my DirecTV because this is way more entertaining and fun to watch. All I do is WIN!Win at what? Where's your input besides trolling every model run? 7 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
St Paul Storm 4028 Posted February 21, 2020 Report Share Posted February 21, 2020 Win at what? Where's your input besides trolling every model run?Lol! That was my exact thought as I read it. WTF is he winning?? 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Tom 16887 Posted February 21, 2020 Report Share Posted February 21, 2020 Still seeing quite the model discrepancies, although, it appears that there is some indication the second piece of energy skirts across the S MW and into the OHV where it phases (potential Bomb?) across the eastern Sub??? Yesterday's 12z Euro lost the storm, last night it brought it back, I'm sure we'll see more changes over the next few days with this system. Could be one of the more stronger storm systems we have tracked for the eastern Sub. 00z Euro... 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Tom 16887 Posted February 21, 2020 Report Share Posted February 21, 2020 00z GEFS...still quite a lot of spread among the members...of note, however, I'm seeing a similar characteristic which has happened in previous cycles whereby the storm rapidly intensifies and then occludes near the GL's region. I'm seeing this being picked up by several GEFS members. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Tom 16887 Posted February 21, 2020 Report Share Posted February 21, 2020 00z EPS...a little better out west into IA and parts of E NE/KC region...the track of the stronger secondary vortex through the MW should produce more snow than what the operational models are showing now. I've seen this happen in similar circumstances in the past and have learned that wherever this closed low tracks usually produces the heaviest precip where max lift is produced. Nonetheless, rest assured, we aren't done yet with model volatility. Edit: Looking closer near the GL's region, there is definitely a Lehs signal being picked up. Boy, there are some big time hits per the EPS members. 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Money 1429 Posted February 21, 2020 Report Share Posted February 21, 2020 6z GFS hits Milwaukee/Chicago pretty good 12+ Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Tom 16887 Posted February 21, 2020 Report Share Posted February 21, 2020 06z GFS...starting to show the big potential in and around the GL's/MW region...lots of moving parts with this system but the idea of a phasing and rapidly intensifying storm system near the GL's/OHV is starting to look like a good possibility. 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Clinton 4429 Posted February 21, 2020 Report Share Posted February 21, 2020 6z EC favors Chicago and Michigan 4 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
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