2/24-2/26 Snow (Ring the doorbell so the big dog wakes up!!!)

[Madtown]

Ding Dong!

[Tony]

The Big Dog is unfortunately not home and will be out of town till next winter!.Please come back around Halloween.

[bud2380]

Here's a shocker, the NWS thinks the GFS is way off base.

 

 

Sunday night into Monday the GEM/ECMWF/GFS both have a system
affecting the area. The momentum fields vary widely between the
models so confidence is low on potential impacts. We currently look
to start out with rain and then transitioning to snow across the
area. Amounts of for each are uncertain at this time as the GFS
says its game on and the GEM says we barely get clipped, with the
ECMWF between these two. Believe the GFS is greatly overdone and if
not using a blended like forecast, would stay away from. Otherwise
we will have to wait until we get closer to determine effects.

[hlcater]

The desperation around here is palpable.

[Stacsh]

The desperation around here is palpable.

I’m excited for sunny and 40’s this weekend. That’s a lock. whatever happens (snow wise) after that will be a bonus. 10 days til March.

[james1976]

[IowaWX82]

Maybe in two weeks...

[Minny_Weather]

Maybe in two weeks...

Looking at your post history, you seem to be a bundle of joy.

 

Not saying you're wrong on a lot of your posts, but couldn't hurt to be a bit more decent.

[Madtown]

Someone will get snow outta this

[IowaWX82]

Looking at your post history, you seem to be a bundle of joy.

 

Not saying you're wrong on a lot of your posts, but couldn't hurt to be a bit more decent.

I’ve been winning all winter long while all the wishcasters keep posting the failing models in hopes that it may confirm their cold biases.

 

My grandpa used to say “a broken clock is right twice a day” but he obviously never read this forum. Keep relying on 240 hours out showing the “big dog” or “b word” ... I’ll just keep being right.

[Bellona]

And my grandfather used to say, "He thinks his sh*t don't stink, but his farts give him away."

[Craig-OmahaWX]

With the AO being positive can't really see this being a big snow maker anywhere. We are all desperately running out of time here in Nebraska lol

[Hawkeye]

Tonight's Euro is very interesting.  The lead system is about the same, but then the trailing energy digs much more again and the kicker energy is no longer diving out of Canada.  The trailing energy tries to grab the lead energy and stretch it back across the region.  The trailing energy then turns into a biggie storm.  The lead system takes away much of the moisture, but the trailing energy is strong and still manages to produce heavy snow.

[Grizzcoat]

Tonight's Euro is very interesting.  The lead system is about the same, but then the trailing energy digs much more again and the kicker energy is no longer diving out of Canada.  The trailing energy tries to grab the lead energy and stretch it back across the region.  The trailing energy then turns into a biggie storm.  The lead system takes away much of the moisture, but the trailing energy is strong and still manages to produce heavy snow.

and keeps nearly all the rain outta of IA. If it's not going snow with the first wave- might as well keep the mud down until it's covered up again with snow.

http://proa.accuweather.com/gradsimage10/ecmwfued/00Z/ecmwfued-null--usnc-168-C-kucheratot.png

[Tom]

Yet another system to track with so many moving parts.  It seems like an endless theme this season with multiple pieces that need to come together in order to deliver a sizable snowstorm.  While the Euro does look generous in the snow dept, it's the only one suggesting it so far.  Most of the models have backed off on a large snowstorm but are not that far off in terms of the idea of phasing both pieces of energy into one main storm system across the heartland.  

 

00z Euro/Control...KC crush job...this would be the best case scenario for many members across the central/eastern Sub this entire season.  We have seen plenty of runs as such before, I'd ride on the side of extra caution while reading to much into these snow maps.  

 

 

[Tom]

00z Canadian phases and digs the storm farther east...

 

 

[Tom]

After analyzing the 00z EPS, IMO it is seeing the potential of really slowing down this storm system across the MW and into the OHV.  The strong and expansive HP that is forecast to build and strengthen across the northern tier and most of Southern/Central Canada will be causing the flow aloft to SLOW down quite a bit.  Just like we saw in previous LRC cycles, I'm starting to believe in this idea of a slow/pivoting storm system that is going to be juiced up.  The lead energy is showing more signs of producing snow on the northern periphery and while doing so, the HP to the north will begin to incorporate arctic air into the system while the secondary piece dives SE into the central Rockies/Plains and takes over.

 

The big difference among the models is the Euro showing a much stronger secondary closed low across the central Plains...it takes 24 hours to track just a few hundred miles into IN.

 

 

 

 

 

 

The 00z EPS snow mean did trend more widespread but also a bit N this run...

 

 

[Clinton]

Yet another system to track with so many moving parts.  It seems like an endless theme this season with multiple pieces that need to come together in order to deliver a sizable snowstorm.  While the Euro does look generous in the snow dept, it's the only one suggesting it so far.  Most of the models have backed off on a large snowstorm but are not that far off in terms of the idea of phasing both pieces of energy into one main storm system across the heartland.  

 

00z Euro/Control...KC crush job...this would be the best case scenario for many members across the central/eastern Sub this entire season.  We have seen plenty of runs as such before, I'd ride on the side of extra caution while reading to much into these snow maps.  

A lot of the CMC ensembles match up with the Euro well.

[Hawkeye]

The 12z GFS trended a bit toward last night's Euro.  It is still farther north with the lead system and the trailing system is not as strong as the euro until much farther east.

[FarmerRick]

OmaDome for the win... 

 

[Hawkeye]

Now the UK is doing something similar.  The first system is farther north, then the trailing energy keeps the snow band hanging back for a while.

 

[Clinton]

12z GFS mean

[Hawkeye]

The 12z op Euro just undid every positive change on last night's 00z run.  Now it doesn't have squat for snow anywhere.

[Stacsh]

Bye bye storm.  Shocking. 

[CentralNebWeather]

When you lose the Euro it is tough to be confident.

[Tony]

Bye bye storm.  Shocking. 

It's ok, there will be another one in 10 days out that we can track until it fades away as well. No denying that this winter is pretty much over and is trash.

[Nelson]

Looks pretty similar to yesterdays 12z run to me....

 

 

 

[Nelson]

 

[Tony]

It's ok, there will be another one in 10 days out that we can track until it fades away as well. No denying that this winter is pretty much over and is trash.

I'm sure this will change 100 times with every model run but on a serious note the setup will probably yield some snow somewhere in the area but I don't think it's going to be anything worth writing about.

[Stacsh]

 

 

That's the lead wave.  Mostly a rainer.  This run doesn't develop a second storm until the east coast.  Disappointing. 

[Tom]

Massive changes on the 12z EPS...primarily for the second wave as it digs deep and then goes neg tilt around the Apps/OHV...the lead wave went south this run...

[Tom]

This is prob THE biggest shift I've ever seen from the EPS in a 12 hour period for the EPS snow mean.  Just a crazy shift after days of runs it basically wiped away the snow in the Plains/Upper MW/MW....that's just ridiculous!

 

I posted today's 12z EPS vs 00z from last night...what the...????

[Hawkeye]

This is prob THE biggest shift I've ever seen from the EPS in a 12 hour period for the EPS snow mean.  Just a crazy shift after days of runs it basically wiped away the snow in the Plains/Upper MW/MW....that's just ridiculous!

 

I posted today's 12z EPS vs 00z from last night...what the...????

 

Sad.

 

It has just been super difficult to get the pieces to come together to produce big storms this winter.

[SE Wisconsin]

This is prob THE biggest shift I've ever seen from the EPS in a 12 hour period for the EPS snow mean.  Just a crazy shift after days of runs it basically wiped away the snow in the Plains/Upper MW/MW....that's just ridiculous!

 

I posted today's 12z EPS vs 00z from last night...what the...????

Still several days away.  The only guarantee we have is that there will be many more changes in the days to come. 

[Clinton]

CMC mean has a mixed bag of ensembles.  Something is giving the models fits, I don't think we should give up on this yet.

[jaster220]

It's ok, there will be another one in 10 days out that we can track until it fades away as well. No denying that this winter is pretty much over and is trash.

 

When it comes to storms/storms coming together/storm tracking, couldn't agree more.

 

Totally this!

 

[GDR]

Calm down everyone! This might not be a great storm or storm at all, but wait until two weeks!

[snowstorm83]

And OAX is actually hyping this for some reason LOL. They must be really bored. 

[OmahaSnowFan]

And OAX is actually hyping this for some reason LOL. They must be really bored. 

I actually thought that myself. It seems "odd" to put out a graphic for a questionable and marginal setup that is 4 days away yet....

Even if it does snow, it doesn't look like anything too disruptive beyond maybe snowing during rush hour Monday morning

[bud2380]

Rare UKMET mention in the AFD from DVN

 

 

The UKMET overspreads precipitation across the entire area Monday
through Wednesday before ending. The UKMET also has a potentially
ominous track pointing to accumulating snow for the area.

The CMC global overspreads precipitation across the entire area
similar to the UKMET but with a timing similar to the ECMWF.
Precipitation would be initially rain with a rain/snow mix over the
northwest half of the area with precipitation changing to all snow
before ending. Additionally the CMC global suggests the potential
for snow showers Tuesday into Wednesday night with upper level
disturbances behind the storm system.